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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I'd rather everyone be 5 PPD so that we can weed out the "beer" and "edibles" posts.

You are as stale as it gets. What do you do for fun, change toilet paper? Here pop a couple 10 mgs and have an IPA and crank the fuck out of this live album from 72.

 

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup.. and Wednesday won’t be as cold as NAM has either 

 

Oh great another cloudy windy day with am rain where the sun comes out for an hour at 6 pm and everyone posts it hit 70 though. I will take the under with that on shore look.

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Wow  you know it’s neat when you see this in the models. It’s spring sweep week over these next 7-9 days … the other end of which the entire continent and adjacent hemispheric limbs are shifted up in 850 mb thermal layout, with a concurrent heightening of both non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic hgts - a +delta that can be observed in just about every direction…

I see this every year in the fall and in the spring. Some critical week where we either gain in the spring or lose in the fall, the resetting of the dial.  I believe this next 6 to 10 days is that week for this year spring. 
 

doesn’t rule out a bowling ball or something fluky but … even by day 12 on these runs today. Most places south of the border could easily make 65 and probably make runs at mid 70s. I’m seeing a lot of 552 dm 500 mbar thicknesses even north of warm fronts.

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully we can overachieve temps Thursday, and get a few decent bangers.

I don’t know if I’d buy that front washing out so fast and bouncing everybody into the warm sector like that. This is April… It seems like people are forgetting, basic climatology of New England.

Sometimes it happens it’s just it is the rare thing. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t know if I’d buy that front washing out so fast and bouncing everybody into the warm sector like that. This is April… It seems like people are forgetting, basic climatology of New England.

Sometimes it happens it’s just it is the rare thing. 

It’s gonna Tip. Wed will suck but by Thurs, The surface high is fleeting and it’s filling with pacific air. Doesn’t stand a chance; even with all the seasonal caveats. We cook. Bet on it.
 

The EPS and GEFS are also all around WARM by Thurs afternoon. Any Canadian highs long gone…

 

 

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The Wasatch in Utah and both Cottonwood Canyons (basically suburbs for SLC) at 750+ widespread up there.

Alta at 830" (after racking up 18 today with ease). 

alta.thumb.jpg.a349b4fb7041023cf0ca9b74afac9aaf.jpg

 

That got me thinking ,What does SLC have on season . They are certainly having a good year . I couldn’t find any updates past mid February .

I read an article that they have been a pretty bad and LONG snow drought relative to climo comparisons of the 60’s and 70’s and refreshingly CC wasn’t mentioned once . 

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10 hours ago, jbenedet said:

It’s gonna Tip. Wed will suck but by Thurs, The surface high is fleeting and it’s filling with pacific air. Doesn’t stand a chance; even with all the seasonal caveats. We cook. Bet on it.
 

The EPS and GEFS are also all around WARM by Thurs afternoon. Any Canadian highs long gone…

 

 

It seems to be trying to lean that way, yeah - but I'm still skeptical for the time being. 

Like I said, it happens if rarely ... I wanted to give it to today's guidance.  I'll feel more comfortable one way or the other when this is 24 hours lead.

I mean I realize this is a nerdiliciously tedious discussion topic ... but the GGEM has the frontal vestige draped along the Pike down here at 18 z Thursday.  The Euro has it through southern VT/NH (~) at that time... whilst the GFS has it either retreated up the Maine coast or washed out altogether.

It would also be in question how much the sky opens up and allows a dose of heating - there's that too.

I'll tell ya ...the real warm solution appears to be the NAM's both 00 and 06z solutions, which situate unabated 564 dm hydrostats ... through which there is partly to mostly sunny intervals everywhere E-S of ALB-PWM... That looks like 82 but I didn't get into the parametrics - that model could have that look at sell a high of 62 at KFIT ha..  Just going by the genera of the synopsis.  I do find intriguing considering it's finer meshing and "in theory" better boundary layer resolution and all that jazz.  

Despite  modeling still being challenged to [correctly] precisely resolve the lower 1,800 to 2,500 feet of atmosphere, particularly with regard to handlingly the meticulous requirement of retreating warm boundaries in eastern New England ( it's like the last hold out error sink in performance on the face the f'n planet Lol ) I will also admit, I have noticed some improvement in the last 10 years wrt to that head game.

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