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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not perfect but man we’ve seen far worse patterns and springs. Plus the ULL ‘s have been over the Lakes and OV so we aren’t under the cores. 

The ULL is over us. Hence the rain every day. 
 

Between tomorrow and the weekend after we’ll have nasty days. Monday and potentially Tuesday look good. Especially Monday. 

 

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We 60 yesterday; we 70 today. Take ‘em up.
 

Classic best weather preceding the worst of weather.


The anomalous surface high responsible for it all.

It is... (bold), and it almost seems endemic to New England, too. I've experienced change from San Francisco to Chicago in my time, and that sort of coldest before it warms, and warmest before it cools happening almost at the seam of the change is more noticeable around this region of the continent.

I think it has to do with barriers associated land-air interface.  The cordillera west, holds cold till the last minute, and then the other way, once the gradient finally works down to the coastal plain, it actually strengths the mean WCB response.   ...hypothesis... 

But no where else I've been is that behavior so well defined.  I've seen a 52 F murk behind a strong BD in May actually find its way to a min of 49 F the morning the skies break and the warm front suddenly mixes through, and then it's 79 by 5pm, more times than I can to count.

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GGEM is 4 straight days of straight cool rain.

Euro at least offers "parole" hearings.  If the rain bomb Sunday overnight scoots along, we may dry slot Monday and find some mercy in there, but... the cold core - which may also be lagging behind seasonal forcing in the guidance some ... - then settles through for a butt- banged mid week.   Thing is, that caveat about seasonal forcing...sometimes things settle out better with those deep mid level deals in May - not always though.  Ha, how did they feel about that under 20" in 1976?   Trick is knowing which way it'll correct.  More often, the specter of it softens some as the mid range nears, however.

We'll see.  I frankly don't mind personally if we get 3 or 4" of water ... then pattern changes circa May 7-10.  There are big signals that the latter may take place, that the general model systems may not yet be detecting.

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