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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scooter got Steined 

Hate to see it 

I reseeded a chunk of the yard so it’s perfect. Otherwise it’s washed away. I don’t need 3” of rain in April. Hopefully May is wet because last year Stein started then and didn’t look back. 

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

From what I understand there is an amazing geomagnetic storm hitting the Earth right now. Aurora's can be seen way south. Of course it's cloudy. Kp index 7.7

Feels like absolute eternity since I've seen a fast full-halo CME that actually excited me, but this one did. Pretty painful.

33nt and -30bz is November 2003 stuff. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You got an inch. AWT. What’s wrong with that?

Sign up for around an inch every time.  Even in big regionwide precip (or even snows), you just want to be solidly into the game. Vegetation wise, it does not matter in the least. The whole northeastern region is now Stein free for 1-2 weeks even if another drop of rain doesn't fall during that time.

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 We flood? 

Although, this is temporary as next chance of
widespread rain comes at the end of this forecast period, as
impressive negative height anomaly per ensembles sets up over the
Great Lakes and OH Valley. This sets up a moisture plume off the
Atlantic into New England of +1 to +2 sigma, notable for this time
range. Given the high latitude blocking, this could be a slow
moving, and possibly high impact event with heavy rain potential
Sunday and/or Monday. Ensemble situational awareness tables for both
ECENS & NAEFS both indicating anomalies up to +/- 2.5 Sunday/Monday,
impressive given the time range. We will need to watch
ensemble trends as the week progresses.
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What a special day on tap for South Fl. 

Scattered/Numerous Thunderstorms Across South Florida Today...
...Severe Weather and Flooding Rainfall May Accompany Storms...

Quasi-zonal upper level flow presides over much of the lower latitudes of CONUS. The exception here is a vigorous H500 short-wave trough and attendant mesoscale-convective system that is propagating eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. As this feature approaches South Florida, RAP/GFS guidance suggest that this wave will decouple into separate impulses, one of which will allow of differential cyclonic vorticity advection to encompass South Florida.This will be
commensurate with divergent flow aloft, low-level convergence, and a general veering of winds within the troposphere favoring warm air advection from SFC-700 hPa. Sufficient instability on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg should allow for thunderstorms to develop as the aforementioned wave phases with peak heating this afternoon, though convective debris may limit surface heating and resultant thunderstorm coverage in some locations. Furthermore, effective bulk
shear on the order of 30-40 kt and steepened mid-level lapse rates around 7/7.5 C/km may allow for a few severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon - mainly over eastern portions of South Florida. Hail up to quarters in size and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out within the most robust thunderstorms that develop through the evening hours today. 
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