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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. 

in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ...  but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely.

then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen.  i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. 

in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ...  but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely.

then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen.  i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

Yup won’t be any big deal other than a few cooler days and periodic showers. Rarely ever is despite the hand wringing and doom and gloom posts .

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The back door presses to the northern mid Atlantic tonight, and then recedes back towards CNE by tomorrow morning.

I’m very skeptical of the latter part— the teles and seasonality argue for a “best in Maine” setup on Saturday. It’s a pretty classic setup for miserable weather in coastal northern mid Atlantic. I think the door presses South all day today then stalls somewhere around LI tonight and remains there most of Saturday.

Saturday has a much better chance of being a shit day to the northern Jersey shore than 70. 

With that I still think Saturday turns out “decent” up here, but we are definitely running out of time, guidance wise.

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54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The back door presses to the northern mid Atlantic tonight, and then recedes back towards CNE by tomorrow morning.

I’m very skeptical of the latter part— the teles and seasonality argue for a “best in Maine” setup on Saturday. It’s a pretty classic setup for miserable weather in coastal northern mid Atlantic. I think the door presses South all day today then stalls somewhere around LI tonight and remains there most of Saturday.

Saturday has a much better chance of being a shit day to the northern Jersey shore than 70. 

With that I still think Saturday turns out “decent” up here, but we are definitely running out of time, guidance wise.

Yeah, #MeToo

... The April casting couch has hand cuffs when it comes to escaping the influence of BDs 

That curved pressure pattern bulging in from the E through early tomorrow ( ahead of the main baro-c axis) probably keeps SE flow in the lowest levels.  

Game over for warm fronts...

The best bet is to be so far on the N-E side of boundary that we clear out from that subsidence.  ...Sometimes the exclusion pattern really hits home when you see a clear sky coming in from the wrong direction... haha.  Anyway, not sure that's even doable.  

I think today is an interior gem and then folks should plan on a bit of 'rhea for several days. 

I am noticing though that the models are attempting alleviation from the drear on the 00z solution spread. It's mostly in the deterministic solutions, tho..   The Euro and GGEM were actually improved over prior runs for D7-10.   Hopefully that has legs. 

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of mid level junk for awhile. But hopefully some breaks.

It's completely clear W-S of here now.   This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. 

May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's completely clear W-S of here now.   This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. 

May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

Yeah starting to vanish now. 

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Same f.ucking place.  I don't understand this. That stretch of highway has decent sightlines for 1000's of feet.  ...No sharp turns...plenty of room.  What is the constant issue there?

Just go to 54 seconds in and picture those TTs accelerating down the hill and jack knifing to pieces. 

 

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Same f.ucking place.  I don't understand this. That stretch of highway has decent sightlines for 1000's of feet.  ...No sharp turns...plenty of room.  What is the constant issue there?

Speed.  It's hilly and people pick up alot of speed there in my travels

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The back door presses to the northern mid Atlantic tonight, and then recedes back towards CNE by tomorrow morning.

I’m very skeptical of the latter part— the teles and seasonality argue for a “best in Maine” setup on Saturday. It’s a pretty classic setup for miserable weather in coastal northern mid Atlantic. I think the door presses South all day today then stalls somewhere around LI tonight and remains there most of Saturday.

Saturday has a much better chance of being a shit day to the northern Jersey shore than 70. 

With that I still think Saturday turns out “decent” up here, but we are definitely running out of time, guidance wise.

Forget about the weather!! You need to do something about this!!!

TWITTER BLUES
CHAOS ON THE SOCIAL
ARE YOU THE REAL OPRAH?
POPE UNVERIFIED!
MUSK 'PAYS' FOR FEW

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Temp was 30° under starry skies at 11 last evening and I figured on low 20s this AM.   Like yesterday, clear evening was followed by clouds, kicking the temp up a few degrees by 6 AM.  Cloudy 40s here - in fact all Maine sites are 40s at 11 AM - though the clouds are thinner than earlier.  Brief sprinkle about 8 AM.  BDL was mostly sunny and 61 at 11, no 79-80 today though 70 is certainly within reach.

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