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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Just got to big cottonwood canyon. The snow here is ridiculous, I’ve never experienced anything like it. As much as 3.5” qpf will fall here between tonight and Tuesday. I know it’s not New England weather but I’ll post some photos over the next few days so other folks can weenie out.

7848b476928739cb386ce9628b9214d4.jpg


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58 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just got to big cottonwood canyon. The snow here is ridiculous, I’ve never experienced anything like it. As much as 3.5” qpf will fall here between tonight and Tuesday. I know it’s not New England weather but I’ll post some photos over the next few days so other folks can weenie out.

7848b476928739cb386ce9628b9214d4.jpg


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Dude post away. Need to live vicariously.  Those storm cycles have been insane.  

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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just got to big cottonwood canyon. The snow here is ridiculous, I’ve never experienced anything like it. As much as 3.5” qpf will fall here between tonight and Tuesday. I know it’s not New England weather but I’ll post some photos over the next few days so other folks can weenie out.

7848b476928739cb386ce9628b9214d4.jpg


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I think we need to add the eggplant emoji this site.  

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Dude post away. Need to live vicariously.  Those storm cycles have been insane.  

I just heard from my buddy who works at solitude that mountain ops think this next cycle will be the biggest of this historic season. They think 70” is possible. I’m not even sure if solitude/Brighton will be able to open in that case but I’m pumped to experience whatever comes next! 

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I just heard from my buddy who works at solitude that mountain ops think this next cycle will be the biggest of this historic season. They think 70” is possible. I’m not even sure if solitude/Brighton will be able to open in that case but I’m pumped to experience whatever comes next! 
When does the insanity stop out there?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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Could be an understatement, too - but yeah ...conservative approach is probably warranted until the signal gathers a bit more momentum.

Longer version: That mid month could soar though.  There are 'teleconnection tiers'  in play ( just conjecture) where the factorization is greatest from lower to high.

- the 1st level, more importance, is the anticipation of rising PNA through the 10th .. 11th, prior to its relaxation or even collapse back negative, thereafter. However, what is probably of greater importance to establishing a warm mid latitudes ... the decay of higher latitude blocking tendencies.  This latter is a slow kinda grind but I do see that the modeled nodes are weakening out there - that's a very necessary first step in establishing any kind of real change...

- the 2nd level is more background, and has to do with residual NINA hemisphere. Despite the recent SSTs decaying back to neutrality spanning the equatorial Pacific, the flow above in middle latitudes around the whole planetary system, being so large, doesn't exactly stop on a dime - particularly when we are heading into a time of year when forcing becomes insufficient to very readily impose change.  Newton's First Law of Motion... heh, it's really that basic when we get down to it.  So anyway, ... the last known forcing available to the total N. hemisphere was, and still to some degree is, the residual NINA...  Many years with big warm bursts in April were during or aft of a decaying La Nina. It's a significant enough longer term correlation.

Last week's MJO bullet points published by CPC suggested that the extended handling from that influence was in constructive interference with said background tendencies, fwiw ...  so there's that. Honestly though, MJO's seem to have been largely uncoupled for months.  I'm not sure we even observed very much influence from this recent phase 8-1-2 migration... Perhaps getting frost at night behind mere cold fronts was related..

So .. the 1st factor above is falling apart it seems. Or a least being de-emphasized in the guidance in recent cycles.  I'm certainly not buying the 00z GFS's idea for that 240 to 300 hr range, out of box ... However, something like that could fit. Whereas the 00z Euro and GGEM look like they wanted to go toward the GFS, but when the rapidly pulled the westerlies N over the eastern continent, they end up stranding +PNAP trough base into one of those typical April whirl scenario. 

The whole morass could be early attempts to open up the flow, though ... The ensemble means of all three have a definitive -PNA dominated continent along with height growth centered on the 15th.

 

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We should have a day on the forum , preferably not during a important system when everyone is supposed to post like tippy for the day . Everyone , and we must try and put in our best efforts . 
 

minimum 3 paragraphs, several hundred characters and minimum 7 “Big” words ( different or repeated)

lets make it happen 

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34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We should have a day on the forum , preferably not during a important system when everyone is supposed to post like tippy for the day . Everyone , and we must try and put in our best efforts . 
 

minimum 3 paragraphs, several hundred characters and minimum 7 “Big” words ( different or repeated)

lets make it happen 

The Californian cordillera cryosphere is burgeoning. 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The Californian cordillera cryosphere is burgeoning. 

As I sun my nape in mezzo am solitude , sufficiently suprasssing the nadir of a season that was confounding in its will to bring the most ardent optimist (S.East of the New England cordillera) To his/ her knees , it strikes me this moment despite winters differentials parallels the feeling I had residing at fox hall after sharing correspondence with a met buddy after the troposphere delivered the equivalent of its own carefully crafted (between nape bronzing mid 60 degree tempists) April  magnus opus In 97.

 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As I sun my nape in mezzo am solitude , sufficiently suprasssing the nadir of a season that was confounding in its will to bring the most ardent optimist (S.East of the New England cordillera) To his/ her knees , it strikes me this moment despite winters differentials parallels the feeling I had residing at fox hall after sharing correspondence with a met buddy after the troposphere delivered the equivalent of a Mike Tyson left hook with all its fury in the first week of April 1997. 

Interesting. 

 

Fixed

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It is that time of year that the South facing slopes are becoming bare but the North and shady areas still have deep snow.  Any guess when my piles from the roof will totally melt?  Still looking for my first 50F of the year.  Don't think today will be it.  38F as of 11am and cloudiness coming in. 

April 3 snow back side of house.jpg

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We should have a day on the forum , preferably not during a important system when everyone is supposed to post like tippy for the day . Everyone , and we must try and put in our best efforts . 
 

minimum 3 paragraphs, several hundred characters and minimum 7 “Big” words ( different or repeated)

lets make it happen 

I just want to know if he does these posts from his phone or desktop. ^_^

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