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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... in any event, for those paying attention to actual weather on a supposed weather-related social media platform lol  ...

Looks like the models and their ensemble means et al continue with the royal shits pattern to end out the month.  This week there is an attempt to return flow/warm surge back N toward mid week. Unfortunately, it keeps stalling right at the geographical doorstop in guidance, as suggested by the surface pressure patterning out there Thur-Sat. ...Hm, despite that the 2-meters of the GGEM and Euro, which are still plugging the mid 70s will make it at least to interior zones, I'm not sure I'd trust that when the cinema through that period clearly demos the boundary is S of SNE.  We'll see...

Beyond that, the anticipated -NAO ( western limb variant) is overwhelmingly signaled. Not only that...the elevating PNA, while not hugely positive, does correct some 1 and half SD upward... Those two behaviors would argue for a mean nadir in the flow orienting through the OV.  ... Over an annoying stretch of unrelenting days (typically when this happens at this time of year).  We would set to hoping that if so, all is somehow transient.  That last week of the month turning page into May ... wish I had a destination to seek refuge 'cause I'd have that flight booked.

The month is reminding me a bit of 2010 (?) when we had temps high enough on April 4 to break out the kiddie pool and all the snow was gone in Peacham and then we got dumped on at the end of the month. 26th.  I am not putting the shovels away quite yet.

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1 hour ago, klw said:

The month is reminding me a bit of 2010 (?) when we had temps high enough on April 4 to break out the kiddie pool and all the snow was gone in Peacham and then we got dumped on at the end of the month. 26th.  I am not putting the shovels away quite yet.

I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se

In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality.  So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place.

 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it’s cloudy and 55 this afternoon?

 

Weed?

This morning dude. 57 for a high low dews. Thursday another winner. Hey I love these cool mornings with sun. Sorry but I prefer working out feeling cool air flowing. Long range looks COC y and I love it.

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket.

It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. 

Why that is happening?  I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind.  I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer.  It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring.   The only time that I recall this phenomenon not taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger.  

The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar.  So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring.  The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems -

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket.

Sell this :weenie:

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. 

Why that is happening?  I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind.  I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer.  It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring.   The only time that I recall this phenomenon taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger.  

The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar.  So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring.  The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems -

I am wondering if the global SST's are having any influence at all. Outside of the eastern Pacific along the West Coast (which is really just an enhanced North Pacific current) and off the South America coast, waters are well above-average. I think the big focal point here is the Gulf of Mexico.

I don't think we pay enough credit or attention to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico has an extreme influence on the climate across the eastern third of the country. Plus look at the waters off the East Coast. These two are almost certainly influencing advecting airmasses. 

I've actually been going back and finally digging through the Kocin books and was looking at some past storm tracks of big storms. These warmer waters, particularly off the East Coast (and the gulf) have to be significantly altering storm track, where cyclogenesis occurs, and even influences the cyclogenetic process itself. 

I would really love to compare SSTAs within these two regions (Gulf/EC) between colder/snowier winters and warmer/less snowy winters. I would bet there is some connection and perhaps a strong one.

Map of SST anomalies

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Sell this :weenie:

This shot of cooler weather is no surprise, but the overall theme is going to be when we have warmth...it's going to be quite anomalous and its going to make these "cooler shots" seem more impressive then they really are. 50's and 30's at night with snow showers isn't crazy for April...getting consecutive days and strings of 80's and 90's is

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Mid 40s and dank here, more like Aprils past than last week's treat.  Two days of this hasn't quite reached the 1/4" mark yet.  Probably the gentlest ice run and snowmelt on the Sandy in my 25 years here - all the drama was the jam in Farmington Falls from the pre-Christmas deluge.  Runoff this spring hasn't gotten within 5 feet of the river's level back then.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se

In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality.  So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place.

 

I have averaged 5.9 inches a month in the 6 Aprils we have been at our current house.  So far nothing this month but I don't really view myself as being in the clear until June.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There won’t be any forsythia flowers . They all died from that freeze and went straight to leaves. All over the area 

Maybe. I've had -17F a couple times here and they flowered after that. This obviously had wind with it too so maybe the flower buds got desiccated.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing flowered around here this year. We lost all magnolias, forsythia and azaleas. Alll just went to straight leaves. 

Magnolia are fantastic down here and up to at least Colchester.  The one just NE of the Colchester green is glorious.  Haven't been any farther north in the state in the past 3 weeks to know about other areas.

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