klw Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... in any event, for those paying attention to actual weather on a supposed weather-related social media platform lol ... Looks like the models and their ensemble means et al continue with the royal shits pattern to end out the month. This week there is an attempt to return flow/warm surge back N toward mid week. Unfortunately, it keeps stalling right at the geographical doorstop in guidance, as suggested by the surface pressure patterning out there Thur-Sat. ...Hm, despite that the 2-meters of the GGEM and Euro, which are still plugging the mid 70s will make it at least to interior zones, I'm not sure I'd trust that when the cinema through that period clearly demos the boundary is S of SNE. We'll see... Beyond that, the anticipated -NAO ( western limb variant) is overwhelmingly signaled. Not only that...the elevating PNA, while not hugely positive, does correct some 1 and half SD upward... Those two behaviors would argue for a mean nadir in the flow orienting through the OV. ... Over an annoying stretch of unrelenting days (typically when this happens at this time of year). We would set to hoping that if so, all is somehow transient. That last week of the month turning page into May ... wish I had a destination to seek refuge 'cause I'd have that flight booked. The month is reminding me a bit of 2010 (?) when we had temps high enough on April 4 to break out the kiddie pool and all the snow was gone in Peacham and then we got dumped on at the end of the month. 26th. I am not putting the shovels away quite yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 45F, overnight & yesterday rain was .10", another great sunrise this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 hour ago, klw said: The month is reminding me a bit of 2010 (?) when we had temps high enough on April 4 to break out the kiddie pool and all the snow was gone in Peacham and then we got dumped on at the end of the month. 26th. I am not putting the shovels away quite yet. I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality. So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Top tenner day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Top tenner day. When it’s cloudy and 55 this afternoon? Weed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: When it’s cloudy and 55 this afternoon? Weed? This morning dude. 57 for a high low dews. Thursday another winner. Hey I love these cool mornings with sun. Sorry but I prefer working out feeling cool air flowing. Long range looks COC y and I love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Man came back to see even the oaks trying to leaf out….some species anyways. Has those little buds with stuff coming out on some species. Others just buds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 39/36 -RN Dusting of snow up high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man came back to see even the oaks trying to leaf out….some species anyways. Has those little buds with stuff coming out on some species. Others just buds. Um it is mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket. It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. Why that is happening? I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind. I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer. It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring. The only time that I recall this phenomenon not taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger. The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar. So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring. The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Light snow falling at the office. Obviously not sticking at 36F but hilarious to see after the week of summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Light snow falling at the office. Obviously not sticking at 36F but hilarious to see after the week of summer. It's actually pretty cool here today. Check out the ski thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket. Sell this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. Why that is happening? I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind. I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer. It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring. The only time that I recall this phenomenon taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger. The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar. So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring. The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems - I am wondering if the global SST's are having any influence at all. Outside of the eastern Pacific along the West Coast (which is really just an enhanced North Pacific current) and off the South America coast, waters are well above-average. I think the big focal point here is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think we pay enough credit or attention to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico has an extreme influence on the climate across the eastern third of the country. Plus look at the waters off the East Coast. These two are almost certainly influencing advecting airmasses. I've actually been going back and finally digging through the Kocin books and was looking at some past storm tracks of big storms. These warmer waters, particularly off the East Coast (and the gulf) have to be significantly altering storm track, where cyclogenesis occurs, and even influences the cyclogenetic process itself. I would really love to compare SSTAs within these two regions (Gulf/EC) between colder/snowier winters and warmer/less snowy winters. I would bet there is some connection and perhaps a strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Sell this This shot of cooler weather is no surprise, but the overall theme is going to be when we have warmth...it's going to be quite anomalous and its going to make these "cooler shots" seem more impressive then they really are. 50's and 30's at night with snow showers isn't crazy for April...getting consecutive days and strings of 80's and 90's is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um it is mid April Way early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Sunny and 57 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Mid 40s and dank here, more like Aprils past than last week's treat. Two days of this hasn't quite reached the 1/4" mark yet. Probably the gentlest ice run and snowmelt on the Sandy in my 25 years here - all the drama was the jam in Farmington Falls from the pre-Christmas deluge. Runoff this spring hasn't gotten within 5 feet of the river's level back then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Just had some grapuel mix in with the latest shower rolling though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 graupel or hail coming down in pwm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality. So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place. I have averaged 5.9 inches a month in the 6 Aprils we have been at our current house. So far nothing this month but I don't really view myself as being in the clear until June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Um it is mid April My pear trees are already breaking bud...before my forsythia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: My pear trees are already breaking bud...before my forsythia. There won’t be any forsythia flowers . They all died from that freeze and went straight to leaves. All over the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Forsythia and Azaleas sucked here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There won’t be any forsythia flowers . They all died from that freeze and went straight to leaves. All over the area Is that the equivalent of flower heaven? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There won’t be any forsythia flowers . They all died from that freeze and went straight to leaves. All over the area Maybe. I've had -17F a couple times here and they flowered after that. This obviously had wind with it too so maybe the flower buds got desiccated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe. I've had -17F a couple times here and they flowered after that. This obviously had wind with it too so maybe the flower buds got desiccated. Nothing flowered around here this year. We lost all magnolias, forsythia and azaleas. Alll just went to straight leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing flowered around here this year. We lost all magnolias, forsythia and azaleas. Alll just went to straight leaves. Forsythia here bloomed but maybe 10% on a bush that would normally have 100% blooms. Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing flowered around here this year. We lost all magnolias, forsythia and azaleas. Alll just went to straight leaves. Magnolia are fantastic down here and up to at least Colchester. The one just NE of the Colchester green is glorious. Haven't been any farther north in the state in the past 3 weeks to know about other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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