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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Next warm surge falls short?

Models have been consistently bringing a warm boundary to roughly N NJ by late Wed or early Thursday, then slamming it to stop and holding it there for two days, while as many as three Lakes cutters go west of us.  

Quite annoying

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Well ... in any event, for those paying attention to actual weather on a supposed weather-related social media platform lol  ...

Looks like the models and their ensemble means et al continue with the royal shits pattern to end out the month.  This week there is an attempt to return flow/warm surge back N toward mid week. Unfortunately, it keeps stalling right at the geographical doorstop in guidance, as suggested by the surface pressure patterning out there Thur-Sat. ...Hm, despite that the 2-meters of the GGEM and Euro, which are still plugging the mid 70s will make it at least to interior zones, I'm not sure I'd trust that when the cinema through that period clearly demos the boundary is S of SNE.  We'll see...

Beyond that, the anticipated -NAO ( western limb variant) is overwhelmingly signaled. Not only that...the elevating PNA, while not hugely positive, does correct some 1 and half SD upward... Those two behaviors would argue for a mean nadir in the flow orienting through the OV.  ... Over an annoying stretch of unrelenting days (typically when this happens at this time of year).  We would set to hoping that if so, all is somehow transient.  That last week of the month turning page into May ... wish I had a destination to seek refuge 'cause I'd have that flight booked.

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Okay... it has been trending more N, tho. 

I just hate and despise April because of that sort of arrangement in the skies, a time of year that has a propensity to leave us tantalizingly so close by.  I mean, I've seen it be 82 F in ALB, where no doubt ... summer's tang piques nostalgia - if only imagined. Yet at that same moment, I turn attention toward the window and gaze into an abysmal 41 F dead calmness of slate gray abandoned air. Secluded really, as the warmth flooded off the Maine coast having avoided SNE altogether. Those end-arounds can happen, really ... On satellite, it looks like being stranding on an island of misfits. Haha

There's something eerily symbolic about that, though, that hearkens to 'everyone except you'  There's something similar about that feeling of being rejected or left out. 

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wild. Full summer up here.  66F picnic tables and 80F valley under full sun.

Cloudy all day here, though thin enough in early aft to get temp up to 60.  Driving to Farmington late aft for evening service, I could see the distinct edge of clouds, with clear blue sky <10 miles west.  
Black cherry buds have opened, red maple and elm blossoms out full.  Maybe 10 days ahead of avg - now can we avoid the dreaded May freeze/apple blossom killer?

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31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Cloudy all day here, though thin enough in early aft to get temp up to 60.  Driving to Farmington late aft for evening service, I could see the distinct edge of clouds, with clear blue sky <10 miles west.  
Black cherry buds have opened, red maple and elm blossoms out full.  Maybe 10 days ahead of avg - now can we avoid the dreaded May freeze/apple blossom killer?

Good morning tamarack. New England in its entirety is wondrous to me. To live in Maine was always my dream. At my chronological state, it must remain so. My ‘postage stamps’ frozen season total matched your November. So it is and possibly will be going forward. Late April early May cherry blossoms must be beautiful to behold amongst the greening. Walking a lane through or by an apple orchard in full bloom, for me, would be magnificent. I will hold on to the dream and thank you for a stimulating visual description. I pray the blossoms survive any potential May freeze. Stay well, as always ….

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Over half an inch of steady light rain with one or two very convective downpours.  You get a third of an inch in minutes, but then wait hours to get to 0.5"+. Wet and soggy ground continues.  As soon as the valley zones were drying out, it rains a moderate amount that leads to ponding.

360739572_April17Precip.jpg.c69ecd699962fbc41bcb5fe22ef5bdb2.jpg

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Over half an inch of steady light rain with one or two very convective downpours.  You get a third of an inch in minutes, but then wait hours to get to 0.5"+. Wet and soggy ground continues.  As soon as the valley zones were drying out, it rains a moderate amount that leads to ponding.

360739572_April17Precip.jpg.c69ecd699962fbc41bcb5fe22ef5bdb2.jpg

Only .33 here. 

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