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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


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If it's anything like this past winter, the troughiness in the East will show up in the long range, and never fully materialize as depicted. 

I don't think  the end of month will be consistently as nice as the past few days obviously, but I'm not sold on complete shit at the end of April. Sure, there will be a few days in the 40's/50's, but mixed in with days in the 60's.  

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6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If it's anything like this past winter, the troughiness in the East will show up in the long range, and never fully materialize as depicted. 

I don't think  the end of month will be consistently as nice as the past few days obviously, but I'm not sold on complete shit at the end of April. Sure, there will be a few days in the 40's/50's, but mixed in with days in the 60's.  

Yeah, makes sense to lean warm until proven otherwise. The period now was depicted as a trough in the east on the long range guidance, yet it’s 81 degrees at 10am in mid April.

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21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If it's anything like this past winter, the troughiness in the East will show up in the long range, and never fully materialize as depicted. 

I don't think  the end of month will be consistently as nice as the past few days obviously, but I'm not sold on complete shit at the end of April. Sure, there will be a few days in the 40's/50's, but mixed in with days in the 60's.  

It’s a warm look right thru months end 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The PDO state and SST configuration in the Pacific SCREAMS a hot summer in the East. 

Quick op ed on this ...

... the present heat departure doesn't mean the statistical connection to the summer - I suspect - that some are tempted to assign.   That said, to me the modeling behavior of consummately correcting the D10 to D15 range warmer, in both the non and hydro-materialized thickness, is more telling/or an indicator that supports the warm summer. 

The reason I suspect so is because the physical make up of these models proven to be missing a predictable factor that points toward more warmth.  It's difficult to believe that is CC driven - CC doesn't mechanize models. But, their is something about the heat source and sink, ...particularly now that we are adding the solar flashing over the hemisphere, that hearkens/ if perhaps 'sets the table' for the warm outlook. 

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I remember this time of year (lived on Long Island, Grandma in North Quincy) when NYC and BOS could be 20F different because of 'the coastal front'.  TV people sometimes called it a 'back door front'.  I remember, maybe 1978, actual supercell drifting from the NE down to Long Island along a backdoor front.

 

Seeing a thunderstorm with all its structure, and an anvil, not uncommon in Texas away from the immediate, but rare in the coastal NE.

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2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I remember this time of year (lived on Long Island, Grandma in North Quincy) when NYC and BOS could be 20F different because of 'the coastal front'.  TV people sometimes called it a 'back door front'.  I remember, maybe 1978, actual supercell drifting from the NE down to Long Island along a backdoor front.

 

Seeing a thunderstorm with all its structure, and an anvil, not uncommon in Texas away from the immediate, but rare in the coastal NE.

Something like that happened in June of 1995 too (don't remember the date, maybe the 23rd?) but it dropped golf ball sized hail! Pretty wild for a back door front to produce. It was a record too which I think was broken a few years back. 

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Made another 40° range with 75/35, down to 43 this morning.  GYX advertising a BD arriving here early aft, otherwise we'd make a run at 80.

Spring progress:  Forsythia blooming, partridge drumming and COC bird on display in our garden (dog noisily interested) for his lady friend in our apple tree, wood frogs "quacking" in our small pond.  We had the muck hoed out last fall, deepening the pond from 2' to 5', and I wondered how that would affect the amphib population.  Evidently, little if any.

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