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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Temps are tricky today ... at first glance, it is not likely to rise as aggressively during the day as yesterday, because we are presently being side swiped by a vigorous S/W diving out of Quebec thru the lower Maritime. That is "denting" back the 850s/offsetting the diurnal mixing ... Basically, the temperatures stall ranging in the 60s, to lower 70s - I'm guessing - over SW-SE sections.   Pretty big gradient between SNE and Maine.

But the globals have the 850s warming abruptly after 18z ...so it may also be a late high if we are actively mixing the BL taller under the intensity of the late August sun now that we are loitering the sun in the later afternoons at this time of year. 

Another aspect is the WNW/NW flow being down slope, transporting an atmosphere that is flirting between the colder shot NE of the region, vs the still kinetically primed air near by S-W ...  It's clear CT will be warmer than S NH ... but how much. 

 

 

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NAM shuts the party down prior  Friday for NE of HFD. 

One warm burst day only, tomorrow. 

It’s obviously not the most dependable guidance beyond 60 hrs, but it does hearken to the fragility of this pattern. We’re transporting a large anomaly warm air mass using lower tercile deeper layer ridge anomaly … it can more easily modulate.  

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NAM shuts the party down prior  Friday for NE of HFD. 

One warm burst day only, tomorrow. 

It’s obviously not the most dependable guidance beyond 60 hrs, but it does hearken to the fragility of this pattern. We’re transporting a large anomaly warm air mass using lower tercile deeper layer ridge anomaly … it can more easily modulate.  

Yeah that races west. 

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25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Probably but if 12z jumps on it I’d worry.  As it is the 80s for days seem remote now.   Nonetheless taking an 11PM walk in shirtsleeves on 4/11 was pretty amazing.

I see far E MA cooling off late Friday but west of there it’s 80’s - spot 90. Even Saturday in CT will be near 80

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13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

72 already.. hrrr has 85-90 tomorrow for many. Probably going to sell that .. but 80s look likely.. 

What are the 850 mb T's off that product .. more importantly, what are the d(T) at that level between 18z and 21z as a specific modulation behavior?

If the d(T) is positive, that means the BL has extended through that level - the impetus being that the adiabats are stretched and you can pretty much take that temp extrapolation and then add the perfunctory 2-meter slope and that's the sfc temperature at max. 

If there is a delta of 0, the BL is not that tall and we can assume an adiabatic extrapolation sigma that is lower than the 850 mb level.

Personally ...with lower DPs and a kinetically charged atmosphere coming on WNW trajectory... the BL is likely to respond to a high solar ( low ceiling RH --> low cloud coverage). That'll raise the BL to be pretty darn tall level tomorrow. I suspect that it does extend through the 850 mb.  Regardless of the models - ha... you know like how sometimes we have to consider the actual Meteorology of the moments huh.  lol.  

So what I am saying is... tomorrow has MOS/machine bust written all over it.  To me ... it is a matter of to what degree/how much.   Remember that warm burst back in 2016 ... 2017? it was in early March. We had 850s to +13 C, which is impressive enough for that early in the year. The forecast was around 80 and that was also eye-popping.   

87  

... FIT/BED ...BDL/ASH ... soared out of control and went above the +13C adiabatic suggestion.  This appears to be a day tomorrow where we can super adiabatically force a higher BL and cook.  I don't have a problem going above expectations - I've seen 91 on March 31 in 1998 from a dry early season transport of continental charged air...  hmm

 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What are the 850 mb T's off that product .. more importantly, what are the d(T) at that level between 18z and 21z as a specific modulation behavior?

If the d(T) is positive, that means the BL has extended through that level - the impetus being that the adiabats are stretched and you can pretty much take that temp extrapolation and then add the perfunctory 2-meter slope and that's the sfc temperature at max. 

If there is a delta of 0, the BL is not that tall and we can assume an adiabatic extrapolation sigma that is lower than the 850 mb level.

Personally ...with lower DPs and a kinetically charged atmosphere coming on WNW trajectory... the BL is likely to respond to a high solar ( low ceiling RH --> low cloud coverage). That'll raise the BL to be pretty darn tall level tomorrow. I suspect that it does extend through the 850 mb.  Regardless of the models - ha... you know like how sometimes we have to consider the actual Meteorology of the moments huh.  lol.  

So what I am saying is... tomorrow has MOS/machine bust written all over it.  To me ... it is a matter of to what degree/how much.   Remember that warm burst back in 2016 ... 2017? it was in early March. We had 850s to +13 C, which is impressive enough for that early in the year. The forecast was around 80 and that was also eye-popping.   

87  

... FIT/BED ...BDL/ASH ... soared out of control and went above the +13C adiabatic suggestion.  This appears to be a day tomorrow where we can super adiabatically force a higher BL and cook.  I don't have a problem going above expectations - I've seen 91 on March 31 in 1998 from a dry early season transport of continental charged air...  hmm

 

Dews are 45-52.. 850s are rising from 15c up to 17c by late afternoon so ya that’s impressive enough to yield widespread 85+

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dews are 45-52.. 850s are rising from 15c up to 17c by late afternoon so ya that’s impressive enough to yield widespread 85+

K, well... 17C extrapolates to 94 F ...just sayn'  (edit 86 ... but, add the 2-meter slope ? heh... could touch 90)

Again, not all the guidance may be doing that.  That HRRR is what it is.

But the NAM... guys, there's no warm day for eastern Mass on Friday.  Those outlooks all week so far for 85 on that day? oops. Cut those down by 30F if the 12z NAM's raging BD boner is right. 

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12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

4,000 now 

No buildings damaged as of the "near 4,000" report, and most evacuated folks have been allowed to return.  Firefighters must be doing a good job keeping the flames away from infrastructure, as that part of the pines has a lot more buildings/residences than farther south in Wharton State Forest.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

64.5F, breezy, and some cirrus

Overall a really nice day. Just wish the shit streak cirrus would go away or dissipate.

Probably don't care to hear this but ...it's been interesting to watch how the terrain is enhancing or even triggering much of that.   Presidential Range is sending shit streaks over lower Maine and coastal NH...

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