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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Beautiful day today . Top 10 

 

 

mm..  9.5

milk overcast is sort of reminiscent of a post holocaust waste land ... when the sky is a pale pal of unhealthy enfeebled sun struggling to cast over a landscape devoid of vegetation.  

I guess we have to keep in mind some sense of 'seasonal relativity' LOL... I mean, whats the f'ed up alternative at THIS time of year.  Jesus - yeah...

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing cirrus. 

yup.  I was just wryly humoring that with Still N of Pike ...

I wasn't really even considering this milk stuff over the last couple of days of modeling. Just flat out didn't think to look.  heh

Although the sun does appear to be penetrating more up my way now, and sat is trying to open... 

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70/37 at 10:45 on any April 11 is pretty slick ... contaminated sun or not -

This is interesting.  My home heating is clicking on and off trying to heat an interior of home that is now colder than the outside by a few ticks. 

It warmed up faster outside this house, than the heater is apparently capable of heating the cold trapped inside?   wtf -

So, turning off the heat and opening some windows. boom

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.... sometimes that seems to be the case.   But ( obviously you know this ...) that "seems" might also have some bit of interpretation bias.  I think we remember the times a cold autumn blast preceded an early winter, or early heat preceded a hot summer with EF5s tunneling to China ( ...see what I did for you there ? ), more so than the times they don't? 

In short, that may be inflating significance.

It's a statistical study to prove one way or the other.  But my personal hunch is that these early occurrences of warm(cool) in spring(fall) ...actually don't really correlate too well.  I think we've already been to the hills and back with discussion over this when on some day circa October ...there are virga shrouded CAA CU with one or two packing pellets on car roof tops ... and all the sudden, a tsunamis of posts brimming with optimism - it's a bit cringy though, because we've shown that it reflects a falsity in that regard.

The problem with optimism in the wrangle of controlling one's psychology in this shit, is that it is a code word for 'already has hopes lubed up and ready for blue balling'  The trick is to not be swayed one way or the other by or because of the first feel of it, particularly if/when there is not enough statistics that really show that it really matters. 

I don't have as much of a feel for it in spring, admittedly.  I've seen more warm springs parlay to warm summers than the cold falls parlaying favorably to winter of lore.  Shy of doing that actual statistical analysis, that is ... It's something I am at least tacitly aware of most years, because I have a weird sort of fetish above heat wave phenomenon. I'm usually paying attention to leading and during temperature anomaly synoptics et al during summers. 

I get what you're saying...but I think you took what I meant to be a bit more complex :lol:

I basically just meant nicer/constantly warm times are ahead (whether that be in May or June). 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I get what you're saying...but I think you took what I meant to be a bit more complex :lol:

I basically just meant nicer/constantly warm times are ahead (whether that be in May or June). 

oh heh.   yeah, i thought it was intended for that other debate. 

Still, regarding that anyway, it could be significant in springs --> ensuing summers.  More so than the other way?   I don't know.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh heh.   yeah, i thought it was intended for that other debate. 

Still, regarding that anyway, it could be significant in springs --> ensuing summers.  More so than the other way?   I don't know.

Maybe you've come across this, but I posted this to Ray in his ENSO thread.

This is a great study and analysis on PDO state/trends and the strong correlation to forecasting prolonged heat episodes across the U.S. (in particular the SW and the East). 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00237-7#Fig1

I find this to be one of the better studies/papers I've come across. Sometimes they can get way too involved in all the heavy math, but the analysis and explanations of everything is top notch. 

 

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday did 65/21 here for 44 degree range.

Low of 35F this morning… and it’s already 55F by 8:05am.

Thats crazy.  Up 20F off the morning min by 8am.

2-3° warmer today but less spectacular due to clouds and wind.  Low was 30 so no 40° range.  A less happy spring phenomenon - first tick tweezered off my shoulder this morning, deer tick of course - hardly ever seeing the larger dog tick in recent years.  Snow down to 4", may be able to dig the overwintered carrots tomorrow.  Like parsnips, they get a bit sweeter that way.

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