Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,592
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Manpower
    Newest Member
    Manpower
    Joined

Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is my point.

Yea I said that. But living within the marine zone always worry about that pond. Seen a nice 70 degree day turn to shit with a sudden sea breeze.  Like I said Tuesday was so so underplayed but man what a great day. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is amazing how folks will lock in 7 to 10 day temps but throw shade on other 7 to 10 day products.  I understand temps are easier to predict but in "Sping" it's a crapshoot with that pond being in the 40s and deep snow cover to our North. However if we get lots of sun with downslope and dry soils temps can skyrocket. I just am skeptical until we see the whites of its eyes.

I agree with this. 

I wouldn't feel comfortable forecasting temps outside of 3-4 days across our region during the spring time. First off MOS/NBM is total trash during the season and there are so many different influences which can impact temperatures (both positively and negatively). H5 could look amazing for warmth in the extended but the sfc could be dealing a different set of cards. Never underestimate backdoor potential or cloud debris. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Ahhh was finally looking forward to cracking the window open to some warmth and sun today  but when I woke up I noticed once again I would be stuck in the murk. When will I ever learn 

I expected morning murk and told people after lunch it will get better. Fingers crossed. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. 

ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. 

Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions.

If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. 

ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. 

Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions.

If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet.

Clouds breaking down this way....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. 

ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. 

Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions.

If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet.

Agree to a point...especially SNE. But it's always been a race between mixing out at the sfc and the cold fropa up here so any lag in mixing out hurts us.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, MarkO said:

We had about 1/4" of accretion and temps didn't break 32 until about 2 hrs ago. Sounds like it's pouring rain in the trees. 

Maybe 0.15" accretion here.  Temp finally into the mid 30s with ice beginning to fall from the trees.  Can the sun burn thru and mix down warmth here?  Forecast of 55 says probably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well ... we had the day last week where we were hung up under an inversion/murk sky until 3:15 here amid the Nashoba Valley area N/E Mass, and guess what... despite only being 40 at 2pm we still burst made 66 by around 5 pm before settling slow down.

There is also a gradation in this thing... It'll likely make 74 at BDL and if it only makes 62 at Merrimack NH ( for example or something like that) ...that's still a relative win in warmth.   That said, ...it is also a compromise to some degree ( literally ) between the various modeling vs the undeniable aspects of April climo in anus hole continental America

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...