40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Meh that's easy. You are talking a very very complex meteorological interaction versus temp. That is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Ahhh was finally looking forward to cracking the window open to some warmth and sun today but when I woke up I noticed once again I would be stuck in the murk. When will I ever learn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will the Pope be tanning and 75 at 2pm like he hoped yesterday? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is my point. Yea I said that. But living within the marine zone always worry about that pond. Seen a nice 70 degree day turn to shit with a sudden sea breeze. Like I said Tuesday was so so underplayed but man what a great day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It is amazing how folks will lock in 7 to 10 day temps but throw shade on other 7 to 10 day products. I understand temps are easier to predict but in "Sping" it's a crapshoot with that pond being in the 40s and deep snow cover to our North. However if we get lots of sun with downslope and dry soils temps can skyrocket. I just am skeptical until we see the whites of its eyes. I agree with this. I wouldn't feel comfortable forecasting temps outside of 3-4 days across our region during the spring time. First off MOS/NBM is total trash during the season and there are so many different influences which can impact temperatures (both positively and negatively). H5 could look amazing for warmth in the extended but the sfc could be dealing a different set of cards. Never underestimate backdoor potential or cloud debris. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Just watching on NBC stream last night's forecast by Ryan. I mean he said temps in the morning in the 50s. Now that's like 7 hours before we all were in the low 40s. It's not so easy in the spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ahhh was finally looking forward to cracking the window open to some warmth and sun today but when I woke up I noticed once again I would be stuck in the murk. When will I ever learn I expected morning murk and told people after lunch it will get better. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 We had about 1/4" of accretion and temps didn't break 32 until about 2 hrs ago. Sounds like it's pouring rain in the trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions. If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Where the sun did break out in S VT, temps are in the 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions. If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet. Clouds breaking down this way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Clouds breaking down this way.... Popped all the windows open, sun peaking through and the temps are already pushing 60...feels a bit muggy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 CT, especially SW CT was never a question. I think many areas improve rapidly towards noon. Inside 495, especially NE MA into SNH will take awhile and probably not max out like areas south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 26 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions. If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet. Agree to a point...especially SNE. But it's always been a race between mixing out at the sfc and the cold fropa up here so any lag in mixing out hurts us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: CT, especially SW CT was never a question. I think many areas improve rapidly towards noon. Inside 495, especially NE MA into SNH will take awhile and probably not max out like areas south and west. 64 now down there. 60 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Yeah to Pope’s point viz is showing low level clearing in western CT. It’s coming. Next week looks phenomenal here. My solar panels rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My area may remain mired in the pork. Yep. Pretty rough here still at KBED. Brightening, but likey just the mid day sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 6, 2023 Author Share Posted April 6, 2023 43 on car therm in Merrimack nh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, MarkO said: We had about 1/4" of accretion and temps didn't break 32 until about 2 hrs ago. Sounds like it's pouring rain in the trees. Maybe 0.15" accretion here. Temp finally into the mid 30s with ice beginning to fall from the trees. Can the sun burn thru and mix down warmth here? Forecast of 55 says probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 HRRR still has me in the low 50's at best - going with that. Inland looks good after 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Euro still running 13 degrees high for the 12pm temp. Stuck at 61 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Well ... we had the day last week where we were hung up under an inversion/murk sky until 3:15 here amid the Nashoba Valley area N/E Mass, and guess what... despite only being 40 at 2pm we still burst made 66 by around 5 pm before settling slow down. There is also a gradation in this thing... It'll likely make 74 at BDL and if it only makes 62 at Merrimack NH ( for example or something like that) ...that's still a relative win in warmth. That said, ...it is also a compromise to some degree ( literally ) between the various modeling vs the undeniable aspects of April climo in anus hole continental America 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 It's what I expected so far. Getting nice in CT RI towards 495 belt. May take a bit in CT to mix out and tap warmer temps aloft until 1-2p or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's what I expected so far. Getting nice in CT RI towards 495 belt. May take a bit in CT to mix out and tap warmer temps aloft until 1-2p or so. Down to 59.9 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 67 now…we rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 67 now…we rise. Wow must be a southerly breeze here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Wow must be a southerly breeze here Ya, something cooling you off there.? No marine influence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 I want to go for a walk and get an ice'd coffee, but the temperatures won't budge. DAMN YOU LOW CLOUDS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I want to go for a walk and get an ice'd coffee, but the temperatures won't budge. DAMN YOU LOW CLOUDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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