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Napril 2023 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We Stein with a week of heat 

 

Warmth may be the most fragile synoptic type in modeling ... particularly along and N of 40.  But, assuming the present synoptic look works out ... he may be too cool on Tuesday and Wednesday ...

I've seen it be close to 60 F over a snow pack in mid February with 850 mb of 0C ...  

Between April 10 and 15th...  +3 to +10 850s with > 80% sun soak while there is a persistent continental transport (wind)?  It should be warmer than 63 and 66 ...

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks relatively "boring" across the country for the next few weeks. Maybe a decent snow event for parts of the northern Inter-mountain West late next week. Hopefully the pattern is just napping and will wake up just in time for May

It’s one of the first time I can look at 0z EPS and it’s QPF mean is very lean for mammoth to Wasatch. I see about 1” QPF on EPS QPF Mean thru 360 hrs , and maybe 1.5” by Tahoe. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2023040600&fh=360

looks like Cascades get buried 

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s one of the first time I can look at 0z EPS and it’s QPF mean is very lean for mammoth to Wasatch. I see about 1” QPF on EPS QPF Mean thru 360 hrs , and maybe 1.5” by Tahoe. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2023040600&fh=360

looks like Cascades get buried 

There could be a few potent systems clipping the PAC NW over the next few weeks. 

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15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still 47-52 here in SWCT ..

edit

euro has it 60-65 by now.. 

 

10am forecast euro oxc : 63

actual 9:45am : 46 across the Waterbury area. 

Again Tuesday was the very best day of the week and nobody said a word about it. Warm and dry.  These prefrontal temp jumps for an hour or two are definitely a fraud five spring item. BFD it's cloudy misty all day clears for an hour late afternoon hits 70. Woot woot what a joke.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Again Tuesday was the very best day of the week and nobody said a word about it. Warm and dry.  These prefrontal temp jumps for an hour or two are definitely a fraud five spring item. BFD it's cloudy misty all day clears for an hour late afternoon hits 70. Woot woot what a joke.

I think it should get better rapidly in many areas south of pike into ORH county near noon. 

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It is amazing how folks will lock in 7 to 10 day temps but throw shade on other 7 to 10 day products.  I understand temps are easier to predict but in "Sping" it's a crapshoot with that pond being in the 40s and deep snow cover to our North. However if we get lots of sun with downslope and dry soils temps can skyrocket. I just am skeptical until we see the whites of its eyes.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is amazing how folks will lock in 7 to 10 day temps but throw shade on other 7 to 10 day products.  I understand temps are easier to predict but in "Sping" it's a crapshoot with that pond being in the 40s and seep snow cover to our North. However if we get lots of sun with downslope and dry soils temps can skyrocket. I just am skeptical until we see the whites of its eyes.

I'll bet on 60 in April every time over a 2-3' blizzard in winter.

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