Napril 2023 Obs/Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's usually not until mid or the end May here for installation

Seems extremely late even for NNE

[weathafella]

Lol…Logan at 52, me 65 nine miles away.

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Learn something new everyday. Menopause is sexually transmitted.

Manopause

[Lava Rock]

Mosquito in the house biting me. Wth

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[HoarfrostHubb]

This morning I went to walk my dog. It was 28F or so (6AM). Saw something odd looking on the driveway.   It was a (apparently dead) giant water bug.   Weird time and place for it.   I know it was dead since it was still there this afternoon.   Huge fooker 

 

[tunafish]

Topped out at 57, still no 60 this year but that should change tomorrow.

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems extremely late even for NNE

Rarely install before July here.  Confusing to you, I know.

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Topped out at 57, still no 60 this year but that should change tomorrow.

 

Rarely install before July here.  Confusing to you, I know.

Tuna?

[moneypitmike]

8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This morning I went to walk my dog. It was 28F or so (6AM). Saw something odd looking on the driveway.   It was a (apparently dead) giant water bug.   Weird time and place for it.   I know it was dead since it was still there this afternoon.   Huge fooker 

 

 

It was mutated by global warming.

[Cold Miser]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems extremely late even for NNE

I've waited until June 1st before.  This does not look to be one of those years though.

[tamarack]

First 60s of the year, 62/21 so also 1st 40+ diurnal range.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

First 60s of the year, 62/21 so also 1st 40+ diurnal range.

Yesterday did 65/21 here for 44 degree range.

Low of 35F this morning… and it’s already 55F by 8:05am.

Thats crazy.  Up 20F off the morning min by 8am.

[BrianW]

Maples will be leafed out by the weekend here. 

 

[Spanks45]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday did 65/21 here for 44 degree range.

Low of 35F this morning… and it’s already 55F by 8:05am.

Thats crazy.  Up 20F off the morning min by 8am.

Same thing here yesterday, unreal swing in temps. This dry air is unreal, what is this, the desert?

[dryslot]

Last patch, Should be able to say goodbye to winter 2022-2023 next couple days.

[MJO812]

It's insane how fast this pattern is switching to a strong El Nino pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's insane how fast this pattern is switching to a strong El Nino pattern.

what ... where is that coming from?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's insane how fast this pattern is switching to a strong El Nino pattern.

Nino Springs are chilly typically. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Last patch, Should be able to say goodbye to winter 2022-2023 next couple days.

Still some decent patches and piles in my neighborhood.  We had a bunch of family over for Easter and they were surprised we still had snow (not on my property but very nearby)

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Maples will be leafed out by the weekend here. 

 

it's going to be interesting and inCREdibly nerdy lol to gauge the response..

Wed night through Friday night may actually be within a couple degrees of 60 F. That should really initiate things pretty quickly.

The red maples up my way are the only above shrub level activation ...and it's still just the rusty red.   These cold nights have been slowing matters.  Spring diurnals prior to green up are typically rather large, but we've been getting a lot of 23 F low temps. Willing to speculate this has been a retarding factor.

It'll be weird walking around in an 84 F ambience with that nuclear wasteland look in the flora.. 

[ineedsnow]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nino Springs are chilly typically. 

We chilly next week

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We chilly next week

Maybe for a couple days. Doesn't seem too bad. The biggest thing is to avoid the wheel o' rhea. Some models hint at the potential. 

[weatherwiz]

Stupid POS timing of the front Sunday. Guess the best potential for any strong thunderstorms will be back across PA/NY (as always). 60-70+ knots of bulk shear with maybe 500-1000 J o MLCAPE...not too bad. Maybe a cluster or two of some wind damage.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We chilly next week

Lol beer? Looked 60’s and lower 70’s. Summer has come early this year . Dig in and enjoy 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol beer? Looked 60’s and lower 70’s. Summer has come early this year . Dig in and enjoy 

First half of the week will be on the cooler side (especially compared to what's coming up). Lower 50's and 40's in the typical colder spots 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

First half of the week will be on the cooler side (especially compared to what's coming up). Lower 50's and 40's in the typical colder spots 

Early next week shows low- mid 60’s in interior SNE . 62-68 or so 

[Chrisrotary12]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Stupid POS timing of the front Sunday. Guess the best potential for any strong thunderstorms will be back across PA/NY (as always). 60-70+ knots of bulk shear with maybe 500-1000 J o MLCAPE...not too bad. Maybe a cluster or two of some wind damage.

We have two seasons on this forum. Ray complaining about getting porked by snow and you complaining about dying convection. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Early next week shows low- mid 60’s in interior SNE . 62-68 or so 

Actually Monday we may be able to squeak out a warmer day, especially east of 84 (with the front slowing down significantly). Tuesday could be quite cool and perhaps Wednesday too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just for the sake of discussion ... folks should get their heads around the notion that what is likely to be the case both sensibly and empirically with temperature and sky this week, these conditions are/were never going to be sustainable in April.

Should celebrate the warm burst for what it is - and enjoy it if one's psychology permits. Because any tendency to grouse has no basis in what is fair.

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just for the sake of discussion ... folks should get their heads around the notion that what is likely to be the case both sensibly and empirically with temperature and sky this week, these conditions are/were never going to be sustainable in April.

Should celebrate the warm burst for what it is, because any tendency to grouse has no basis in what is fair. heh 

 

I like to view these anomalies as "signs of things to come". It's what we can look forward too in the near-ish future. 

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I like to view these anomalies as "signs of things to come". It's what we can look forward too in the near-ish future. 

Yeah.... sometimes that seems to be the case.   But ( obviously you know this ...) that "seems" might also have some bit of interpretation bias.  I think we remember the times a cold autumn blast preceded an early winter, or early heat preceded a hot summer with EF5s tunneling to China ( ...see what I did for you there ? ), more so than the times they don't? 

In short, memory bias may be inflating significance.

It's a statistical study to prove one way or the other.  But my personal hunch is that these early occurrences of warm(cool) in spring(fall) ...actually don't really correlate too well.  I think we've already been to the hills and back with discussion over this when on some day circa October ...there are virga shrouded CAA CU with one or two packing pellets on car roof tops ... and all the sudden, a tsunamis of posts brimming with optimism - it's a bit cringy though, because we've shown that it reflects a falsity in that regard.

The problem with optimism in the wrangle of controlling one's psychology in this shit, is that it is a code word for 'already has hopes lubed up and ready for blue balling'  The trick is to not be swayed one way or the other by or because of the first feel of it, particularly if/when there is not enough statistics that really show that it really matters. 

I don't have as much of a feel for it in spring, admittedly.  I've seen more warm springs parlay to warm summers than the cold falls parlaying favorably to winter of lore.  Shy of doing that actual statistical analysis, that is ... It's something I am at least tacitly aware of most years, because I have a weird sort of fetish above heat wave phenomenon. I'm usually paying attention to leading and during temperature anomaly synoptics et al during summers.