Napril 2023 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some listen,  some beer

Yeah it’s not a forecast, but a risk. At the least a potent cold shot comes in prior. For now, awesome stretch incoming. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s not a forecast, but a risk. At the least a potent cold shot comes in prior. For now, awesome stretch incoming. 

Nothing below freezing or anything like that though 

[adam038]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Party is over though after next weekend.

Good, because I need to be outside on the 17th for a few hours and don’t need 80s to accompany my trip from Hopkinton.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing below freezing or anything like that though 

Most areas aren’t done being 32 or below. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, adam038 said:

Good, because I need to be outside on the 17th for a few hours and don’t need 80s to accompany my trip from Hopkinton.

Nice. Good luck man.

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott's right ...  (altho not sure about the Nino referencing but that's something else)

There is a significant enough statistical/lag correlation following warm bursts for some sort of negative NAO response.  

Now ... as 'statistic' implies, that does not mean every time.   But, it is both statistically true, and also ...makes sense for a couple of super synoptic conceptual reasons.

1    all warm air masses, particularly those with node identity in mid latitudes (meaning physically exerting), such that the end of the week definitely qualifies, have to go some where... On Earth ( ... anyway)  that means moving toward higher latitudes. Guess where/what "higher latitudes" means with regard to New England?  If your answer contains a facet that sounds like 'the NAO domain space' of rhea hell, you get a gold star. (Oh... the idea there, warm air moving into the NAO domain space does so aloft and triggers a positive height response - ie, blocking)

2   at an even broader conceptual consideration ... the climate is not going to surge by 30 F because of this next week.  99.99% certainty ...barring the birth of a new sun making Earth a captive audience to a double solar powered, circumbinary orbit like Tatooine ... the climate needle is only going to move maybe a decimal or two along the CC trajectory.  Which means, come next Saturday, ...with a series of days putting +20s in the till, some how, some way, ...we're paying taxes on those dividends ( particularly in Aprils!)  You can feel confident that April is not likely to finish that way... Somethin's likely to correct matters.

Yeah, ... there can be extraordinarily rare months. Circa March 2012 for example.  But this is probably not that.  We've already "wasted" the first 9 days with "unimpressive" +4. LOL.  It's topic for another time but there is a leitmotif that began ( I noticed ) about 10 years ago, this phenomenon where despite warm anomalies... the impression/"feel" was a cold loaded span of time - it's weird.  Something that's going on, a kind of disconnect, that is being encouraged between sensible weather, vs reality, as a separate fascinating topic for nerds.

Anyway, some how some some way ... we are more likely to end up somewhere between 1 and 2 above.  If it doesn't happen like the 280 hour 00z GFSies ... it's likely to be offset in the aggregate days of dice rolling.

[Torch Tiger]

Happy Easter all!  What a week incoming!

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scott's right ...  (altho not sure about the Nino referencing but that's something else)

There is a significant enough statistical/lag correlation following warm bursts for some sort of negative NAO response.  

Now ... as 'statistic' implies, that does not mean every time.   But, it is both statistically true, and also ...makes sense for a couple of super synoptic conceptual reasons.

1    all warm air masses, particularly those with node identity in mid latitudes (meaning physically exerting), such that end of the week definitely qualifies, have to go some where... On Earth ( ... anyway)  that means moving toward higher latitudes. Guess where/what "higher latitudes" means with regard to New England?  If your answer contains a facet that sounds like 'the NAO domain space' of rhea hell, you get a gold star.

2   at an even broader conceptual consideration ... the climate is not going to surge by 30 F because of this next week.  99.99% certainty ...barring the birth of a new sun making Earth a captive audience of double solar powered, circumbinary orbit like Tatooine ... the climate needle is only going to move maybe a decimal or two along the CC trajectory.  Which means, come next Saturday, ...with a series of days putting +20s in the till, some how, some way, ...we're paying taxes on those dividends ( particularly in Aprils!)  You can feel confident that April is not likely to finish that way... Somethin's likely to correct matters.

Yeah, ... there can be extraordinarily rare months. Circa March 2012 for example.  But this is probably not that.  We've already "wasted" the first 9 days with "unimpressive" +4. LOL.  It's topic for another time but this is leitmotif that began ( I noticed ) about 10 years ago, this phenomenon where despite warm anomalies... the impression/"feel" was cold loaded span of time - it's a weird.  Something that's going on, a kind of disconnect is encouraged between sensible weather, vs reality, as a separate fascinating topic for nerds.

Anyway, some how some some way ... we are more likely to end up somewhere between 1 and 2 above. 

I meant we are transitioning to a Nino state in the tropical Pacific. That sort of helps propel some ridging out west into Rockies and troughs here. I mean our climo alone already is prone to that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant we are transitioning to a Nino state in the tropical Pacific. That sort of helps propel some ridging out west into Rockies and troughs here. I mean our climo alone already is prone to that. 

ok, right - just as a 'template' circulation mode.  sure. 

It's pretty convoluted out there.  Looks like bowling season, perhaps a late attempt at one.  I mean, the wave lengths are quite obviously shortened, and the total velocities in the ambience scale are way down.  Ending up with cut-off(s) is probably a no brainer.  And given our climatological upstate NY rural rape shack captivity with those ... good luck. 

But hell ... maybe we'll score ( haha)

[tamarack]

22 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

It falls on a Monday.  Trust me,  if it looks like a chance to be clear drive to get into totality

You're right!  I forgot it was leap year.  

March 1970 eclipse was ~93% in NNJ, like an early twilight.  We barely paused at our carpentry site.

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know what would be weird…? 
 

A spring snow storm raging on with like wind and blowing snow 1982 style. And then the total eclipse of the sun happens right in the middle of it I mean you go from like gray blue cryo- Misty rage already …into just total loss of light. That would be so bizarre.

Why not?  The Sox broke the "curse" under a total lunar eclipse.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sicko . Absolutely deranged 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Next 8-10 days he's gonna be in his prime

[George001]

90s on Friday coming? Fridays forecast keeps increasing on my weather app.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Next 8-10 days he's gonna be in his prime

No measurable. Even after that looks like 60’s and scattered showers with a few weak fropas. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Totally normal obsession w that strange stein 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

90s on Friday coming? Fridays forecast keeps increasing on my weather app.

up up up!

[WxWatcher007]

I’m very excited about the week ahead. I wonder how much my solar panels will produce. 

[weathafella]

Cover off the compressor this week.  I dare say we’ll need nighttime ac by late week.

Flight from ord to BOS today.  Warm in chicago and I can almost feel the edge of it here tonight.  Summery week on tap for sure!   Is this April akin to March 2012?

[Cold Miser]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sicko . Absolutely deranged 

 

Dude is out there watering plants in early April. lol

[Cold Miser]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

Cover off the compressor this week.  I dare say we’ll need nighttime ac by late week.

Flight from ord to BOS today.  Warm in chicago and I can almost feel the edge of it here tonight.  Summery week on tap for sure!   Is this April akin to March 2012?

lol.  Earliest AC power-up in memory for you?

[drstuess]

I’m very excited about the week ahead. I wonder how much my solar panels will produce. 

Will be good, but higher temps reduce output. Lose about 9% at 80 degrees vs 40 degrees.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

Looks like an unbeatable spring week on tap. Perhaps we leaf out by Saturday? Stein away, baby!

[Lava Rock]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No measurable. Even after that looks like 60’s and scattered showers with a few weak fropas. 

you put dimension down yet?

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Looks like an unbeatable spring week on tap. Perhaps we leaf out by Saturday? Stein away, baby!

I get the funny sense the only thing holding matters back is the fact that we keep bottoming out at nights.  Just looking back at the weather typology ...it's not been like late snows, or show stopping late cold... just a lot of chilly nights. Seems to be the only factor preventing. Other than a one or two overnights over the recent 10 days we've been frosting/freezing temperatures outside of urban areas.  22 to 30 F more oft than not is likely closing cracked buds by night.  Forsythia to lilac have been in a kind of suspended bud swell for over a week.  Usually if their presenting they've opened by now.  Lawns started to green tint a couple of weeks back but also stalled some ...

So yeah... the anticipation is that the next several days exceeding 60 and night above 40 should accelerate. 

Wednesday still looks like a steal back day for VT/NH/ME, tho, as that potent S/W dives out of Quebec and compresses the flow for a day.  It's interesting to see the non-hydrostatic heights rising over Ohio/PA while that thing is whisking by ... It's laying in 12 to 18 hour of cold in ME while the larger signal is trying to go the other direction.  Makes for a lot of gradient.   Could be 78 in NYC and 42 in CAR on Wednesday. In fact, Maine remains bonked on Thursday when SNE gets into the upper 70s fun yet CAR ...46ish?  

I guess that's not too crazy. No one living above PWM's latitude up there carries on with many delusions about this time of year, but it's certainly indicative of winter's petty reclamation of real-estate for a day. A phenomenon we all risk N-E of the PIT-NYC damned latitudes in spring

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, drstuess said:

Will be good, but higher temps reduce output. Lose about 9% at 80 degrees vs 40 degrees.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

That’s interesting. Thanks. 

[powderfreak]

Let’s goooo.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 434 AM EDT Monday...This period will be dominated by very warm conditions (highs exceeding 70 each day for most locations below 2000 feet), flirting with daily records at times. Given the degree and timing of this warm up, expect marine recreation to be popular this weekend and will message cold water awareness and safety later in the week as an early reminder. Interestingly this stretch of warm weather is reminiscent of that two years ago, which featured eight consecutive days in Burlington in which the high temperature exceeded 60, including 4 in a row above 70 from April 8 to 11.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Let’s goooo.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 434 AM EDT Monday...This period will be dominated by very warm conditions (highs exceeding 70 each day for most locations below 2000 feet), flirting with daily records at times. Given the degree and timing of this warm up, expect marine recreation to be popular this weekend and will message cold water awareness and safety later in the week as an early reminder. Interestingly this stretch of warm weather is reminiscent of that two years ago, which featured eight consecutive days in Burlington in which the high temperature exceeded 60, including 4 in a row above 70 from April 8 to 11.

 

This is a spring 'synoptic warm burst,' as I've been calling it.   Not trying to seal credit there or anything silly of the sort, but it is just to point out that it's a new kind of climate phenomenon ( I really believe - ) that's becoming more frequent in the Feb-Mar-Apr seasonality.

...they're basically defined by +20 ( or so...) daily means that really stick out as curvature 'spikes' on the graphical histories.   It's fascinating to me...   But all these weird 85s in those three month period is an alarming increase return rate compared to any time prior to 1998 and is worth the denote/recognition imho

This week...particularly Thurs/Fri is likely to be one of those.   And their synoptics are recognizably similar when they occur.  Although this one ( interestingly...) is a dimmed 500 mb non-hydrostatic variant, albeit still qualifying overall.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a spring 'synoptic warm burst,' as I've been calling it.   Not trying to seal credit there or anything silly of the sort, but it is just to point out that it's a new kind of climate phenomenon ( I really believe - ) that's becoming more frequent in the Feb-Mar-Apr seasonality.

...they're basically defined by +20 ( or so...) daily means that really stick out as curvature 'spikes' on the graphical histories.   It's fascinating to me...   But all these weird 85s in those three month period is an alarming increase return rate compared to any time prior to 1998 and is worth the denote/recognition imho

This week...particularly Thurs/Fri is likely to be one of those.   And their synoptics are recognizably similar when they occur.  Although this one ( interestingly...) is a dimmed 500 mb non-hydrostatic variant, albeit still qualifying overall.

Have definitely noticed them up here more and more.  Especially the pre-vegetation “warm bursts” as you call it. It seems we have an annual desire now to pump 75F+ with ease into pre-vegetation landscapes that even include snow cover in spots and especially the mountains.

Theres still snow in my yard that this week will take care of but BTV NWS even mentioned the “take the over” on temps and under on RH with no greenery in place yet.  It was what, a couple years ago it was like 90F with 12% RH on leafless forests?  Like 95F at some ASOS sites in NNE?  But that was May.

We definitely can get some over machine numbers on those dry heat bursts with no green up in place yet.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the funny sense the only thing holding matters back is the fact that we keep bottoming out at nights.  Just looking back at the weather typology ...it's not been like late snows, or show stopping late cold... just a lot of chilly nights. Seems to be the only factor preventing. Other than a one or two overnights over the recent 10 days we've been frosting/freezing temperatures outside of urban areas.  22 to 30 F more oft than not is likely closing cracked buds by night.  Forsythia to lilac have been in a kind of suspended bud swell for over a week.  Usually if their presenting they've opened by now.  Lawns started to green tint a couple of weeks back but also stalled some ...

Clear skies and low dews make for huge diurnal ranges, especially in spring.  March 20-22, 2012 in Farmington had highs of 80/82/83, their warmest March days in their 130-yr POR.  Lows on those days were 32/35/36 and aren't among the mildest 40 minima.