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April 2023


Rtd208
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21 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I don't see any sign of it. Could the cooler than normal break for one or two days? Sure. But I think it would be for a one day shot of near normal".  I see no sign whatsoever of a ridge in the east which is necessary for prolonged above average temperatures. For that I think at the earliest late in the third week of May--17th-24th....at the earliest. At the latest second week of June.

WX/PT

Does that mean May is likely to be below normal, or possibly cooler than April?

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

I wonder what’s going with OKX. Down since this morning.

Topped out at 55 after it cleared out for a bit a short while ago. No measurable rain, just a few occasional drops earlier. Garbage.

The radar is having a generator replaced on it. Down for a week. There’s a notice when you go to their page. 
 

NWSradaroutage.png

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Earlier today, Portugal, Spain, and Morocco experienced their highest temperatures on record during April. The 102° high in Cordoba, Spain set a European April record.

In the Middle Atlantic region, cool mainly cloudy weather prevailed. A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. Nevertheless, there are some hints that warmth could begin to return to the East while cooler weather returns to the West, as has been the case through most of the winter and spring so far.

The region could experience rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +9.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.738 today.

On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.000 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.9° (4.2° above normal). That would tie the record for the warmest April on record.

 

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1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Does that mean May is likely to be below normal, or possibly cooler than April?

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th.  That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures.

WX/PT

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_64.png

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The last 3 days of April are averaging    52degs.(49/55) or -5.

Month to date is     58.2[+5.1].      April should end at    57.6[+3.9].

Reached 62 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    54-58, wind se.-breezy, cloudy-rain by 6pm, 47 tomorrow AM.

The first 10 days of May[56, or -5]look as much BN as the last week of April will, -5.     It tries to warm up by the 7th., more likely the 10th.   

 Also May appears better behaved---having warmed up by less than 1 degree in the past 60 years.      April was +2.4 over that period.

51*(87%RH) here at 7am.      53* at 8am.      55* at 10am.      Reached 56* at Noon.      53* at 8am.

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11 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th.  That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures.

WX/PT

 

This isn’t going to get us warmth, that’s for sure. 

 

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57 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

This isn’t going to get us warmth, that’s for sure. 

 

I totally agree. Now the gfs in it's fantasy time-frames is going to occasionally do what it did last night and heat us up at 300+ hours. But I'm not even close to buying anything like that. In fact with El Nino getting ready to take shape all bets are off on what type of summer is ahead. This pattern would be closer to what we'd want to see in January.

WX/PT 

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53 and cloudy with rain into EPA and SNJ with arrival in the next few hours.  Into the wet part of this cooler patter.  Block has forced cut lows to undercut trough and bring rain this weekend and early next week.  Pattern persists on most guidance through at least the first 10 days of next month.  hints the upper air pattern migrates and height build back in towards mid month,but overall cooler than normal, and wetter to potentially much wetter the next 10 - 12 days.  Likely no 70s the next week at least.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

njradar.gif

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Looks like you may break a rainfall record on Saturday 29th, it is an easy one to break (0.91" from 1909). The recent 1.51" on the 23rd failed to break that daily record (2.34" 2006). The April 29th record is one of only two daily records all year that are below 1.00" the other one being 0.86" for September 9th (1902). It would be neat if 2023 could eliminate both of them. The third lowest value is 1.02" for June 8th (1900). 

The Sunday record is a lot higher, Apr 30th 2014 had 4.97" of rain. Today's record is 2.74" from 1980. 

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