April 2023

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Same pattern since the winter. Models increasing the strength of the -pna 

You get different outcomes by late April/May.

Closed low with blocking to the NE will cause a lot of rain. Fully anticipate models to ramp up totals 

Big signal from EPS

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

again and again

Tough to verify day 10 snowstorms during the winter when that warm pool ridge east of New England keeps popping up the closer in we get. Someone at one of the weather model centers should come here and discuss this frequent model error. The GFS has had even more of a cold bias than the Euro at day 10. So the long range  GFS has even more virtual snow than the Euro. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2009)
NYC: 91 (1915)
LGA: 88 (2009)

LOWs:

EWR: 37 (1971)
NYC: 29 (1919)
LGA: 36 (1971)

Historical:

 

1875 - New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of record for that location. (David Ludlum)

1898 - The temperature at Volcano Springs CA hit 118 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)

1910 - Chicago, IL, was blanketed with 2.5 inches of snow, and a total of 6.5 inches between the 22nd and the 26th. It was the latest significant snow of record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

1912: An estimated F4 tornado struck Ponca City, Oklahoma. One person was killed, and 119 homes were damaged or destroyed. Dozens of oil derricks were flattened or twisted, southwest of town. The tornado was reportedly visible and audible for 20 miles.

1920 - Atlanta, GA, received 1.5 inches of snow, and experienced their latest freeze of record with a morning low of 32 degrees. The high of just 39 degrees was only their second daily high colder than 40 degrees in April. (The Weather Channel)

1984 - A late season snowstorm struck the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains. The storm produced some unsually high snowfall totals. The town of Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota, was buried under 67 inches of snow. Red Lodge, located in the mountains of southern Montana, reported 72 inches of snow. Up to 60 inches blanketed the mountains of northern Wyoming. It was rated the worst late season storm of record for much of the affected area. (25th-28th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina produced heavy rain flooding creeks in the foothills and the piedmont area, before moving out to sea. The low pressure system also produced wind gusts to 50 mph in Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms racing at 65 mph produced large hail in Alabama and Georgia. Hail damage in Alabama was estimated at fifty million dollars, making it their worst weather disaster since Hurricane Frederick in 1979. Hail three inches in diameter accompanied a tornado near Valdosta GA. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported south of Atlanta GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from North Carolina to Indiana and Ohio, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-2) tornado hit Xenia OH injuring 16 persons and causing more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful (F-4) tornado near Weatherford TX. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was raked with hail two inches in diameter, and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage. Two dozen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 87 degrees at Flint MI and 90 degrees at Alpena MI were records for April. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful F4 tornado near Weatherford, Texas. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was hit with hail two inches in diameter and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage.

2008 - Anchorage, AK, receives a record 17.2 inches at the airport and 22 inches in northeast Anchorage from the 25th to 26th. The 15.5 inches on the 25th makes it the third most received on any one day in Anchorage.

[donsutherland1]

An extended cool period will likely continue through the opening week of May. This sustained period of cooler than normal weather is shown on both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weeklies. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

The region could experience some rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.871 today.

On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.074 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.023 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[CIK62]

The next 6 Weeks+.      AN comes at mid-May.

 

[donsutherland1]

From Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology: A forecast for a super El Niño.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then.

WX/PT

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2009)
NYC: 91 (1915)
LGA: 88 (2009)

LOWs:

EWR: 37 (1971)
NYC: 29 (1919)
LGA: 36 (1971)

Historical:

 

1875 - New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of record for that location. (David Ludlum)

1898 - The temperature at Volcano Springs CA hit 118 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)

1910 - Chicago, IL, was blanketed with 2.5 inches of snow, and a total of 6.5 inches between the 22nd and the 26th. It was the latest significant snow of record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

1912: An estimated F4 tornado struck Ponca City, Oklahoma. One person was killed, and 119 homes were damaged or destroyed. Dozens of oil derricks were flattened or twisted, southwest of town. The tornado was reportedly visible and audible for 20 miles.

1920 - Atlanta, GA, received 1.5 inches of snow, and experienced their latest freeze of record with a morning low of 32 degrees. The high of just 39 degrees was only their second daily high colder than 40 degrees in April. (The Weather Channel)

1984 - A late season snowstorm struck the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains. The storm produced some unsually high snowfall totals. The town of Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota, was buried under 67 inches of snow. Red Lodge, located in the mountains of southern Montana, reported 72 inches of snow. Up to 60 inches blanketed the mountains of northern Wyoming. It was rated the worst late season storm of record for much of the affected area. (25th-28th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina produced heavy rain flooding creeks in the foothills and the piedmont area, before moving out to sea. The low pressure system also produced wind gusts to 50 mph in Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms racing at 65 mph produced large hail in Alabama and Georgia. Hail damage in Alabama was estimated at fifty million dollars, making it their worst weather disaster since Hurricane Frederick in 1979. Hail three inches in diameter accompanied a tornado near Valdosta GA. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported south of Atlanta GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from North Carolina to Indiana and Ohio, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-2) tornado hit Xenia OH injuring 16 persons and causing more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful (F-4) tornado near Weatherford TX. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was raked with hail two inches in diameter, and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage. Two dozen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 87 degrees at Flint MI and 90 degrees at Alpena MI were records for April. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful F4 tornado near Weatherford, Texas. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was hit with hail two inches in diameter and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage.

2008 - Anchorage, AK, receives a record 17.2 inches at the airport and 22 inches in northeast Anchorage from the 25th to 26th. The 15.5 inches on the 25th makes it the third most received on any one day in Anchorage.

 The Atlanta 1.5" April 25th snow and cold was truly amazing. However, the Atlanta based TWC actually got the year wrong. It was 1910 (same year as the noted Chicago snow), not 1920:

https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2017/04/april-25-1910-snowfall-in-northern-georgia/#:~:text=From This Day in Weather,of the 30s in April.

 I've read the old Atlanta newspapers from then (on microfiche at public library) and they predicted for 4/25/1910 rain and warmer than the much colder than normal 4/24. Instead, 4/25 was even colder along with the snow. This snow still is much later in spring than any other measurable snow there on record. Chattanooga was in the same boat except they got 4"! Nashville got 1.5".

[lee59]

39 was my low this morning and it looked like some of the rooftops may have had a little frost. Nothing but dew otherwise. Would not be surprised if there was frost in some of  the rural inland areas of both Nassau and Suffolk. I see mid 30s in the Muttontown area of northern Nassau.

[LoboLeader1]

37 for an over night low here.

[IrishRob17]

30 for the low

[Volcanic Winter]

Went down to 31 here this AM. Pretty impressive. 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of April are averaging       57degs.(52/61) or -1.

Month to date is     58.6[+5.9].         April should end at      58.3[+4.6], 1st. Place.

Reached 61 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   59-63, wind se., increasing clouds-rain by midnight, 48 tomorrow AM.

49*(57%RH) here at 7am.      52* at 8am.      55* at 9am.      56* at 10am.      54* at Noon.      57* at 3pm.       Reached 60* at 5pm.       52* at 8pm.

[FPizz]

33 last night

[psv88]

34 last night 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 34 last night chilly morning but now up to 50.   Partly sunny today with some showers later this evening as front moves through.  Thu (4/27) likely the last partly-mostly sunny day or a week.  By Fri (4/28) trough and cut off low along MW into EC.  Wet and cool period overall with plenty of rain chances through next Wed.  Overall looking cooler as trough remains over the northeast through the first week of next month with continues multiple rain chances.  Beyond there perhaps moderation towards normal/drier conditions towards mid month.  

[SACRUS]

[Brian5671]

GFS, usually the driest model is now wettest for the weekend

[JustinRP37]

It is very odd how spring is the season that has showed the lowest increase in temperature from AGW. Each year lately we seem to get into these cold, wet patterns that we can't shake off for awhile. Meanwhile any little hint of warmth in winter and it is off to 50+F.

[Picard]

It was almost predictable that after hitting the 90s two weeks ago, we would settle back into a blah cool damp spring pattern for a time.  

Any chance we salvage part of Saturday before the rains begin?

[Superstorm]

Just now, Picard said:

It was almost predictable that after hitting the 90s two weeks ago, we would settle back into a blah cool damp spring pattern for a time.  

Any chance we salvage part of Saturday before the rains begin?

Don't we do this every year?

[Tekken_Guy]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Don't we do this every year?

Yeah this is typical. Last year April 14 was almost a 90-degree day. Didn’t crack 80 again for a month, or even 75 for three weeks.

Warm-ups this time of year are usually very fleeting. Cooldowns on the other hand generally last much longer.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Don't we do this every year?

Yep

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, Picard said:

It was almost predictable that after hitting the 90s two weeks ago, we would settle back into a blah cool damp spring pattern for a time.  

Any chance we salvage part of Saturday before the rains begin?

Since it starts Friday night it doesn't look likely

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Since it starts Friday night it doesn't look likely

Both weekend days look terrible

[SACRUS]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Both weekend days look terrible

The period Fri - Mon looks mainly cloudy, cool and potentially washouts.  Mets may have 2-3 rain outs.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2009)
NYC: 92 (2009)
LGA: 91 (2009)

Lows:

 

EWR: 34 (1934)
NYC: 31 (1919)
LGA: 37 (1972)

 

Historical:

 

1834 - Killer frosts were reported in the Deep South. The frost was quite severe around Huntsville AL, and highlighted a backward spring in the South that year. (David Ludlum)

 

1884: Tornadoes were hard to capture on old cameras with their hard to use glass plate negatives. The first recorded photograph of a tornado was taken on this date by A.A. Adams near Garnett, Kansas.

1978 - An unusually strong occluded front swept out of the Gulf of Alaska and produced the first April thunderstorm of record at Fairbanks. Pea size hail fell northeast of Fairbanks from thunderstorms whose tops were less than 8000 feet. (The Weather Channel)

1984 - Severe thunderstorms associated with an intense cyclone spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in two days from Louisiana to Upper Michigan. The tornadoes killed 16 persons and injured 259 others. (Storm Data)

1987 - Twenty-two cities in the central and western U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 83 degrees at Astoria OR smashed their previous record by 13 degrees. Sacramento CA hit 94 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - While Rochester, MN, was blanketed with 13.7 inches of snow, establishing a single storm record for the month of April, Minneapolis MN, just 90 miles away, got only rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-three cities in the central and southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 91 degrees at Evansville IN and Nashville TN equalled April records. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Iowa to Kentucky, with more than ninety reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Berwick IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Twenty-nine cities from the Carolinas to the Great Lakes Region and western New England reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Record high temperatures included 95 degrees at Baltimore MD and 92 degrees at Allentown PA. The record high of 89 degrees at Alpena MI was the third out of six straight record highs for that location, and smashed their previous record for the date by ten degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1991 - Severe thunderstorms in the central U.S. spawned fifty-five tornadoes from northeastern Texas to Iowa and eastern Nebraska killing twenty-one persons. Early evening thunderstorms over south central Kansas spawned a violent (F-5) tornado whiched traveled 45 miles from southwest of Wichita to north of El Dorado. It killed seventeen persons, including thirteen at the Golden Spur Mobile Home Park in Andover. The tornado also caused 62 million dollars damage to McConnell Air Force Base as it crossed the south side of Wichita. (National Weather Summary

2003 - Twenty inches of snow falls in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains. Alpine Meadows ski resort just north of Lake Tahoe reports more than 100 inches and Kirkwood south of Tahoe reports 112 inches.

 

[Stormlover74]

It's crazy how every day something was happening between 1987 and 1990

[Snowlover11]

depressing weather the rest of this week, need the rain i guess.

[Tekken_Guy]

12 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then.

WX/PT

I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll be warm again in Week 2 of May. If we’re lucky the pattern will break by next Thursday.