April 2023

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i was a little surprised at the rainfall totals as the meso models were backing off on amounts up until yesterday 

Maybe the blocking allowed for heavier rains around NYC instead of all the 2.00”+ amounts going NE. But the models like the Euro and RGEM did a good job indicating that there would be 2.00”+ amounts where the best convection set up.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the blocking allowed for heavier rains around NYC instead of all the 2.00”+ amounts going NE.

I wonder what that means for late week into the weekend. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder what that means for late week into the weekend. 

Blocking with closed lows this time of year usually means rainfall opportunities.

[lee59]

Sun breaking thru the clouds, 2.12 inches of rain.

[nycwinter]

a inch more of rain then predicted for the city..

[uofmiami]

2.22” in Syosset & 1.98” in Muttontown. Much needed rainfall. 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i was a little surprised at the rainfall totals as the meso models were backing off on amounts up until yesterday 

EURO FTW here--had the 2+ inch amts a few days ago and never wavered.  BDR with 2.40

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Blocking with closed lows this time of year usually means rainfall opportunities.

The period 4/30 is interesting as the ULL moves through slowly.  Still more than 7-8 days away but overall an unsettled period onc to Wed/Thu (4/27) and into the first week of the month..

[psv88]

Beautiful afternoon. Temp between 63 and 67. Spring 

[donsutherland1]

Heavy rain yielded to partly sunny skies during the afternoon. In response to the return of the sun, the mercury rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. A few places topped 70°.

Now, cooler air is beginning to filter into the region. An extended cool period will likely take hold and continue into the opening week of May.

The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -16.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.497 today.

On April 21 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.756 (RMM). The April 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.617 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, I’m sensing that we move out the BN range sometime around May 4-5. 

[lee59]

Had another light shower pass thru a little while ago, now it looks like some pretty good showers around Port Jefferson over the sound toward Ct.

[lee59]

Brookhaven National Labs (on Long Island) still has an average January temperature below 30 degrees. I think one reason why is the recording station is not at an airport or urban area but rather in the middle of a large open field. I am sure they get very good radiational cooling. 

January 22, 1961 Brookhaven hit a record low of -23 degrees. The same night Newark hit 5 above, Laguardia 9 above and Kennedy 13 above. Now that is some difference.

Here is their website for anyone interested.   

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/

[IrishRob17]

On 4/22/2023 at 6:45 PM, MJO812 said:

Tornado warning  now here

It was an EF2

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202304240213-KBGM-NOUS41-PNSBGM

[Allsnow]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the blocking allowed for heavier rains around NYC instead of all the 2.00”+ amounts going NE. But the models like the Euro and RGEM did a good job indicating that there would be 2.00”+ amounts where the best convection set up.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Seems an uptick not just in tornado frequency but also intensity over this area. I’m aware stronger ones have occurred in the past as well, but the frequency of EF 1 and 2 events seems higher. Most of our tornadoes are EF 0 spinups, sometimes low end / borderline 1’s. 

Add the EF3 to my southwest in 2021 and then that EF3 in the Delmarva recently. I still can’t believe the former looked like a legit deep south multi vortex wedge  

Definitely seems like an uptick in intensity. I have no data on this and may be incorrect but it also seems like we’re seeing more supercellular storms and not just the typical QLCS with associated spinups. 

[Brian5671]

Models wet the next 10 days.  CMC has 4-6 from a stalled noreaster next weekend

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Models wet the next 10 days.  CMC has 4-6 from a stalled noreaster next weekend

Spring blocking always brings the rain 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of April are averaging     55degs (48/62) or -3.

Month to date is    59.1[+6.7].      April should end at    58.1[+4.4].

Reached 68 here yesterday.

Today:   61-66, wind nw. to sw., p. sunny, 46 tomorrow AM.

46*(63%RH) here at 7am.      48* at 9am.      50* at 10am.       53* at Noon.      57* at 2pm.      59* at 3pm.      Reached 61* at 3:30pm.

[SACRUS]

Down to 40 and now up to 50.  Dry and cool / near normal throuh Wed (4/26) before a wetter period arrives by the end of the week and into this coming weekend.  Looks very cloudy with frequent precipitation and likely a big rainmaker or two in the period 4/28 - 5/6 as trough and cut off / ULL's work through the EC and are slow to move out.

[crossbowftw3]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

It was an EF2

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202304240213-KBGM-NOUS41-PNSBGM

I watched this cell go directly overhead of me about half an hour earlier and I had a feeling something was getting ready to happen with it 

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I watched this cell go directly overhead of me about half an hour earlier and I had a feeling something was getting ready to happen with it 

A path of nearly 10 miles is also impressive.

[SACRUS]

Records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87 (2001)
NYC: 87 (2001)
LGA: 87 (2001)

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 36 (1967) 
NYC: 31 (1930)
LGA: 36 (1971)

Historical:

 

1880: Several tornadoes affected parts of central and southwest Illinois. One tornado of F4 intensity touched down near Jerseyville and killed one person along the 18-mile path. Another F4 tornado passed just north of Carlinville and lifted near Atwater, destroying 50 buildings. Six people died in Christian County by an F5 tornado, which tracked from 9 miles southwest of Taylorville to near Sharpsburg. 

1899 - Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)

1908 - Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes over across the Central Gulf Coast States claiming the lives of 310 persons. The state of Mississippi was hardest hit. A tornado near Hattiesburg MS killed 143 persons and caused more than half a million dollars damage. Four violent tornadoes accounted for 279 of the 310 deaths. The deadliest of the four tornadoes swelled to a width of 2.5 miles as it passed near Amite LA. The tornado also leveled most of Purvis MS. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Up to seven inches of rain drenched Virginia in three days. Morgantown WV received 4.27 inches in 24 hours, and flooding was reported in south central West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure produced high winds and severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region. Strong thunderstorm winds destroyed two mobile homes at Whitt TX injuring two persons. Winds associated with the low pressure system gusted to 70 mph at Guadalupe Pass TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Russell KS was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 101 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Colorado to Wisconsin. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Sargeant NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern High Plains to north central Kansas. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, including one which injured four persons and caused 1.5 million dollars damage at Shattuck OK. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Wheeler TX, wind gusts to 85 mph southwest of Arnett OK, and 13.45 inches of rain near Caldwell TX, which resulted in the worst flooding in recent memory for that area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2003: The temperature soared to a maximum of 70 degrees in Juneau, Alaska. This is the earliest record of 70-degree reading to occur in Juneau. 
 

2010 - An EF-4 tornado up to 1.75 miles wide travels 149.25 miles through Mississippi, the widest and fourth longest path in Mississippi history. It left behind major destruction to businesses, churches and homes, four fatalities in Yazoo City and ten fatalities across the state,

[Gravity Wave]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Seems an uptick not just in tornado frequency but also intensity over this area. I’m aware stronger ones have occurred in the past as well, but the frequency of EF 1 and 2 events seems higher. Most of our tornadoes are EF 0 spinups, sometimes low end / borderline 1’s. 

Add the EF3 to my southwest in 2021 and then that EF3 in the Delmarva recently. I still can’t believe the former looked like a legit deep south multi vortex wedge  

Definitely seems like an uptick in intensity. I have no data on this and may be incorrect but it also seems like we’re seeing more supercellular storms and not just the typical QLCS with associated spinups. 

It definitely feels that way. What's interesting is that most of these stronger recent tornadoes didn't come as part of major severe outbreaks; they were on days where there weren't widespread severe storms. It would be interesting to see what happens if we could get a more large-scale event in the area.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

It definitely feels that way. What's interesting is that most of these stronger recent tornadoes didn't come as part of major severe outbreaks; they were on days where there weren't widespread severe storms. It would be interesting to see what happens if we could get a more large-scale event in the area.

While arguably some might say that rural areas are becoming increasinly poplulated, which would imply that more tornadoes went unnoticed, wouldn't radar and other damage reports would most likely have detected them anyway?   If a tree falls in the forest...

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

While arguably some might say that rural areas are becoming increasinly poplulated, which would imply that more tornadoes went unnoticed, wouldn't radar and other damage reports would most likely have detected them anyway?   If a tree falls in the forest...

Radar indicated tors have been more of a recent thing though no?  Like 15 years tops? Many probably did go unnoticed with less development.  

[Stormlover74]

Weekend washout on the euro with 2 to 3" of rain

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Radar indicated tors have been more of a recent thing though no?  Like 15 years tops? Many probably did go unnoticed with less development.  

 

[donsutherland1]

The latest ECMWF weeklies for April 24-May 1. The May 1-8 timeframe is also cooler than normal before readings rebound to near normal levels in the East. Parts of the West will see their warmest readings relative to normal so far this year for the current week.

 

[donsutherland1]

An extended cool period will likely continue through the opening week of May. This sustained period of cooler than normal weather is shown on both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weeklies.

The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -24.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.978 today.

On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.022 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.754 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.