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April 2023


Rtd208
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To answer the question several had asked, May at NYC has never been colder than its previous April. The (15) closest calls are:

YEAR ____APR __MAY ___incr

1945 ____55.6 __ 59.2 ___ 3.6

2005 ____55.1 __ 58.9 ___ 3.8

2017 ____57.2 __ 61.1 ____ 3.9

1915 _____54.4 __ 59.0 ___4.6

1968 _____55.0 __ 59.6 ___4.6

2002 ____ 56.1 __ 60.7 ___4.6

1921 _____56.1 __ 61.2 ___ 5.1

1976 ____ 55.0 __ 60.2 ___ 5.2

2008 ____ 54.9 __ 60.1 ___ 5.2

1967 ____49.6 __ 55.2 ___ 5.6

1952 ____55.0 __ 60.7 ___ 5.7

1974 ____55.2 __ 61.0 ___ 5.8

1910 _____55.1 __ 61.0 ___ 5.9

1917 _____48.4 __ 54.3 ___5.9

1954 _____53.8 __ 59.8 ___6.0

________________________________________

May 1967 was only 0.2 warmer than April 1968 and was 0.7 colder than April 1969. 

May 1917 was 0.1 colder than April 1915. and 1.8 colder than April 1921. 

Those are the only two cases where May was colder than any April within two years. 

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Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" of rain is likely with some locally higher amounts. Afterward, the sun will return and it will remain mild for one more day.

A sustained cool period will develop just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May. The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. A cool period in the East is supported by the MJO's having moved into Phase 8, along with the development of strong Atlantic blocking. That blocking is forecast to fade during the first week of May leading to the possible development of a return of warmer conditions during the second week of the month. Given the timeframe involved, there remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -26.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.255 today.

On April 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.615 (RMM). The April 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.635 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

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