April 2023

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through mid-spring, most of the Northern Hemisphere has seen a warmer than normal spring. Cold has remained largely confined to western North America while the East has been exceptionally warm.

same pattern as the winter-no cold air anywhere

[Tekken_Guy]

15 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

An onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected today, tomorrow, and Saturday with 70s to near 80 only  over some spots well inland well north west and northeast of NYC as our temperatures stay mainly in the 50s and 60s.

WX/PT

We likely needed that warm day to lock in the warmest April record. Now there’s a very strong chance 2010 keeps it, especially if it stays below 60 for most of next week.

[MANDA]

Latest Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions expanding over the Northeast sector with Moderate Drought now showing up for parts of this forum.  Not good to be going into the warm season this dry.    Hopes for rainfall over the next 7 days are hinging on Saturday night into Sunday.  Based on trends over the last few days I suspect most places will see mainly around 1/2".  Some lucky spots maybe around an inch or a bit more but the trend has been for less not more over the last 2 days.

[Gravity Wave]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

same pattern as the winter-no cold air anywhere

There was plenty of cold in the West.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

There was plenty of cold in the West.

Globally.  What little cold there was ended up Western US

[winterwx21]

69 degrees here right now. Perfect Spring weather today. 

Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking saturday night. Several of today's 12z models are giving us a half inch to inch of rain. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 91 (1943)
NYC: 90 (1927)
LGA: 85 (2005)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 34 (1953)
NYC: 24 (1897)
NYC: 35 (1953)

Historical:

 

1901 - A spring storm produced unusally heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron OH established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1912: A tornado moved north-northeast from 5 miles southeast of Rush Center, KS across the east half of Bison, KS. Farms were wiped out near Rush Center. The loss at Bison was $70,000 as half of the town, about 50 homes, were damaged or destroyed. There were 15 injuries in town. A dozen farms were nearly wiped out. Debris from the farmhouses was carried for 8 miles. A senior man who made light of the storm was killed with his granddaughter on a farm 2 miles southwest of Bison.

1920 - Tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama killed 219 persons. (David Ludlum)

1952 - The tankers Esso Suez and Esso Greensboro crashed in a thick fog off the coast of Morgan City LA. Only five of the Greensboro's crew survived after the ship bursts into flame. (David Ludlum)

 

1984: A temperature of 106 degrees at Del Rio, Texas set a new record high for April.

1987 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 at Little Rock AR equalled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A storm in the western U.S. brought heavy rain to parts of California. Mount Wilson was soaked with 4.15 inches of rain in 24 hours. The heavy rain caused some flooding and mudslides in the Los Angeles area, and a chain reaction collision of vehicles along the Pomona Freeway which resulted in 26 injuries. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 at Provo UT, 90 at Pueblo CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City UT, equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A fast moving Pacific storm produced heavy snow in the central mountains and the Upper Arkansas Valley of Colorado, with a foot of snow reported at Leadville. Thunderstorms in the south central U.S. produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Tulsa OK, and heavy rain which caused flooding of Cat Claw Creek in the Abilene TX area. Lightning struck the building housing a fish farm in Scott AR killing 10,000 pounds of fish. Many of the fish died from the heat of the fire. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - Up to five feet of snow falls in the Dakotas. I-94 and other highways were closed, power was out for thousands and caused at least four deaths.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Globally.  What little cold there was ended up Western US

-PDO on steroids.

 

 

 

[Tekken_Guy]

Wasn't it supposed to hit 80 tomorrow?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Wasn't it supposed to hit 80 tomorrow?

East winds.  Started showing up on models a couple days ago.

Meanwhile the Euro is showing a couple of wet solutions especially east of NYC for Sat night/Sun

[Tekken_Guy]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

East winds.  Started showing up on models a couple days ago.

Meanwhile the Euro is showing a couple of wet solutions especially east of NYC for Sat night/Sun

I'm starting to get the feeling we might not break the record for warmest April. Next week could shave 2-4 degrees off the average and tomorrow was supposed to provide a buffer.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a warm day except along the immediate coastal plain. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s tomorrow in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia and lower 70s in New York City. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +2.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.955 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.764 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[canderson]

NYC’s forecast high today was 80 Monday.  Today it’s 62. Impressive change. 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

NYC’s forecast high today was 80 Monday.  Today it’s 62. Impressive change. 

70 today

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

70 today

NWS site says 62 for NYC. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Congrats NYC on the worst winter since records have been kept in 1869. Won't be official until Jul 1 but i think its safe to call it, ha

Right there with you, BDR made the list as well, and it's not even close. almost half the snowfall than the current record holder - 72/73 8.2"

 

22/23 - BDR 4.9", NYC 2.3" 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Congrats NYC on the worst winter since records have been kept in 1869. Won't be official until Jul 1 but i think its safe to call it, ha

Right there with you, BDR made the list as well, and it's not even close. almost half the snowfall than the current record holder - 72/73 8.2"

 

22/23 - BDR 4.9", NYC 2.3" 

Hard to imagine anything worse than  01-02 and 11-12 but alas here we go....

[JustinRP37]

38 minutes ago, canderson said:

NWS site says 62 for NYC. 

It says 70 for me. Not sure what you are seeing or what zip code. But for Manhattan it is 70. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to imagine anything worse than  01-02 and 11-12 but alas here we go....

Super Nino next winter….97:98 repeat? 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Super Nino next winter….97:98 repeat? 

Could be.   Hopefully a 82-83 or 15-16 style Nino but who knows and the background state has warmed since those...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm.     64* at 3pm.      60* at 5pm.     58* at 6pm.

[Volcanic Winter]

Man, a shutout super Niño with wall to wall warmth and no snow would be absolutely intolerable following this past winter. For now I’m going to assume we’ll fare better than this year. I should say, for my sanity. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm. 

I put a dime that the next 8 days average +2 degrees above average (only based on persistence) 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 88 (1957)
NYC: 87 (1923)
LGA: 86 (1957)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1981)
NYC:  26 (1875)
LGA: 33 (1956)

Historical:

 

1885: A tornado struck the town of Denison, Texas in 1883 that destroyed a church. The congregation rebuilt the church. On this date, a second tornado destroyed the newly rebuilt church.

1958 - Portions of Montana were in the midst of a spring snowburst. Snowfall amounts ranged up to 55 inches at Red Lodge, 61 inches at Nye Mine, and 72 inches at Mystic Lake. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Severe thunderstorms spawned 48 tornadoes in the Upper Midwest. Hardest hit was northern Illinois where sixteen tornadoes touched down during the afternoon and evening hours causing fifty million dollars damage. On that Friday afternoon tornadoes struck Belvidere IL, and the Chicago suburb of Oak Lawn, killing 57 persons. (David Ludlum)

1980 - The temperature at International Falls MN hit 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Gulf of Mexico to New England and the Great Lakes Region, with twenty-nine cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 82 degrees at Caribou ME, 94 degrees at Mobile AL, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 93 degrees at New Orleans LA, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, a third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a double-header at Dodger Stadium which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1988: After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, the third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a doubleheader at Dodger Stadium, which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days.

1989 - The temperature at Las Animas, CO, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equalled or exceeded previous April records. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail in Oklahoma, and also caused some flash flooding in the state. Thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains produced golf ball size hail at Roswell NM and El Paso TX. Easterly winds and temperatures near zero produced wind chill readings as cold as 50 degrees below zero for the spring festival (Piuraagiaqta) outdoor events at Barrow AK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2007 - The South Plains and Panhandle of West Texas were hit by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Between the hours of 5 and 6 pm, several thunderstorms developed across the western South Plains. Around 7 pm, a supercell produced a tornado which touched down around Fieldton (southwest of Olton) and then moved just south and east of Olton, doing damage to several structures and equipment. The thunderstorm continued to move northeast across northeast Lamb, northwest Hale, southeast Castro and southwest Swisher Counties, producing a long-lived tornado (along with hail up to the size of tennis balls). By 7:45 pm, the storm approached the town of Tulia in Swisher County. A tornado touchdown was reported in the town, causing major damage. The tornadic thunderstorm continued to move northeast across Swisher County over open country through about 8:30 pm. (NWS Lubbock, TX)

[Tekken_Guy]

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm. 

I think you got that backwards. Next week will be the big cooldown and it returns to normal as May arrives.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some fog and drizzle in coastal areas. Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible tomorrow night into Sunday morning.

A sustained cool period will develop just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May. The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. A cool period in the East is supported by the MJO's having moved into Phase 8, along with the development of strong Atlantic blocking. That blocking is forecast to fade during the first week of May leading to the possible development of a return of warmer conditions during the second week of the month. Given the timeframe involved, there remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -19.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.455 today.

On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.766 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[MJO812]

Greetings from the Catskills

 

Nice and cool up here

 

47 will be the low tonight 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Greetings from the Catskills

 

Nice and cool up here

 

47 will be the low tonight 

Several more freezes possible for the higher elevations next week.

 

[Tatamy]

Seems unusual to have a sea breeze this far inland however that is exactly what has occurred here today.  I reached a high of 78 at 4 PM and have now dropped back to 58.

[wishcast_hater]

Saturday night

Not happening


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