April 2023

[MJO812]

53 here

[donsutherland1]

After a cool night, it will begin to turn milder tomorrow. Noticeably warmer air will then return starting Thursday. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s on Friday. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the next weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -1.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.478 today.

On April 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.519 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.722 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[psv88]

Like clockwork, a shitty month of crap about to arrive. 

[TriPol]

Red Flag Warning until Weds at 8 pm

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Like clockwork, a shitty month of crap about to arrive. 

We're having the warmest April ever so it's fine. I also don't think it'll be that bad, we'll probably still have an above normal May. 

[Rtd208]

[ForestHillWx]

41 currently. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Blocking pattern about to set up

[MJO812]

43 here

Awesome weather to sleep

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

Like clockwork, a shitty month of crap about to arrive. 

We do need the rain here. As usual we got blanked near and east of the city from the event over the weekend that favored NJ. 

[Nibor]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

43 here

Awesome weather to sleep

Being able to just open my window instead of running my AC is a win. days in the 60-70s and nights in the 40-50s is my favorite type of spring weather. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging       59degs.(50/68) or +2.

Month to date is      59.4[+8.0].        Should be       59.3[+6.1] by the 27th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     62-67, wind w.-breezy, m.sunny, 50 tomorrow AM.

BN for this month appears gone now.    EURO warmer too.      You can declare this April the warmest ever w/o waiting.

45*(55%RH) here at 7am.      47* at 8am.      49* at 9am.       51* at Noon.       56* at 2pm.      61* at 3pm.      64* at 4pm.      66* at 5pm.      Reached 68* at 5:30pm.      63* at 7pm.      52* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

Down to 35 and now to a chilly 51.  Skies clearing.  Warmer step up 60s today, 70s Thu (4/20), 80s Fri (4/21) for the warmest spots.  Sat (4/22) warm but looks cloudy keeping capped in the 70s as front approaches.  Front comes through Sun (4/23) much cooler and heaviest rains of the month for many.  Next week 4/24 - 4/28 looks near normal and pending on cut off low, potential wet  period.  Beyond there, no major cool or warmth and hovering nearer to normal to close the month.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 92 (1976)
NYC: 92 (1976)
LGA: 85 (2002)

Lows:

 

EWR: 33 (2020)
NYC: 21 (1875)
LGA: 35 (1983)

 

Historical:

 

1775 - The first engagement of the Revolutionary War took place under clear crisp weather at Lexington-Concord. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1941 - The temperature at Sodus, NY, soared to 95 degrees. The next day Albany, NY, reported a record for April of 93 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1973 - Glenrock, WY, received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1976 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1986: A major storm system produced ten tornadoes in Texas. One of these tornadoes virtually annihilated the town of Sweetwater. The tornado struck at the unlikely time of 7:17 am. One person was killed, and 100 were injured. Click HERE for some pictures of Sweetwater following the tornado.

1987 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s for Easter Sunday. Fort Smith AR reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. early in the day spawned a strong (F-3) tornado which destroyed seventeen homes and severely damaged thirty houses near Madison FL killing four persons and injuring eighteen others. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 98 degrees at Hanksville UT equalled their record for April. Tucson AZ reported their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Five cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and upper teens. Elkins WV reported a record low of 20 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Southern Plains produced golf ball size hail at San Angelo TX, and up to four inches of rain in southwestern Oklahoma. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks in Illinois history occurred on April 19, 1996. During the day, 33 tornadoes were reported as supercells erupted and moved across the state during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind estimates in excess of 170 mph were associated with some of the stronger tornadoes, one of which ripped through nearby Ogden, IL. (University of Illinois WW2010)

[nycwinter]

another lovely cool morning in nyc i love it!!!

[canderson]

Going to be in the city this weekend - will the rain hold off until after midnight Saturday? 

[FPizz]

22 minutes ago, canderson said:

Going to be in the city this weekend - will the rain hold off until after midnight Saturday? 

GFS has it arriving around 8-10pm

[canderson]

46 minutes ago, FPizz said:

GFS has it arriving around 8-10pm

Thanks! I'll carry my raincoat all Saturday then just to be safe. Umbrellas in the city = nghtmare lol 

[rclab]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

43 here

Awesome weather to sleep

Good afternoon, Anthony. Ref: NWS/NOAA 13:51 CPK observation 59, Dwpt 29 and fair. Judging from your latest change in Avatar is there, possibly, a blessed event in your near future? Stay well, as always …..

[ILoveWinter]

Philly high temps (Th, Fri Sat): 77, 85, 77

NYC (Manhattan) high temps: 64, 72, 69 

We are on the wrong side if you ask me but i know many of you here prefer it that way!

[Stormlover74]

What happened to 80?

 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What happened to 80?

 

The onshore maritime gunk fest points and laughs. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I suspect April finishes out on the cool/wet side and the first ten days of May are near to below normal with regards to temperatures. Precipitation for the first ten days of May very uncertain at this point. 

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Milder air will continue to overspread the region tomorrow. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s on Friday in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia and lower 70s in New York City. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +4.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.459 today.

On April 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.697 (RMM). The April 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.631 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[wishcast_hater]

Is it going to rain this month? We had rain all winter and now when it’s supposed to - it doesn’t.


.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Is it going to rain this month? We had rain all winter and now when it’s supposed to - it doesn’t.


.

Saturday night

[Brian5671]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday night

models are wet too 1 to 1.5 inches for most

[donsutherland1]

Through mid-spring, most of the Northern Hemisphere has seen a warmer than normal spring. Cold has remained largely confined to western North America while the East has been exceptionally warm.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     56degs.(48/64) or -1.

Month to date is    59.2[+7.6].      Should be 58.3[+5.0] by the 28th.

Reached 68 here yesterday.

Today:    61-66, wind s., mixed clouds/sun, 55 tomorrow AM.

48*(58%RH) here at 7am.     50* at 8am.      53* at 9am.       52* at Noon.      55* at 3pm.        59* at 5pm.    Reached  60* at 6pm.      53* at 8pm.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

An onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected today, tomorrow, and Saturday with 70s to near 80 only  over some spots well inland well north west and northeast of NYC as our temperatures stay mainly in the 50s and 60s.

WX/PT