April 2023

[SRRTA22]

 

oh jeez,  i didnt even see this thread...

I 100% agree with bluewave. The svr potential tomorrow should be watched. I really, really like central NJ (duh....its always central nj) but NYC proper isnt out of the woods either. Be weather aware tomorrow. 

 

[Tatamy]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection.

 

We are starting off the day out here with a loud booming thunderstorm.  This definitely looks to be an interesting severe day.  These cells are rolling east quickly into NJ too.

[CIK62]

March ended at    44.6[+1.8]

The first 8 days of April are averaging      54degs.(46/63) or +5.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:  60-65, wind w.-breezy, cloudy, rain till 5pm, 40 tomorrow AM.

50*(93%RH) here at 7am-FOG  about 0.5mi.       Variable fog here and some thunder/rain around 8:15am.      52* at 9am.     55* at 10am.       60* at 10:30pm.       60* at 11am.      62* at Noon.      69* at 5pm---sunny since 2pm.     Reached  70* at 5:30pm.        60* at 6:30pm---TS? moving in?

 

[Snowlover11]

hopefully an EF4 rolls though my job.  i could use an off day today

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

hopefully an EF4 rolls though my job.  i could use an off day today

  Not expecting much east of the river-marine layer...

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

  Not expecting much east of the river-marine layer...

I don't think that matters as much today. 

Severe parameters are favorable to the coasts. 

[Allsnow]

MSP with another 8-10 over night. What a winter for that area 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain will give way to some sunshine. It will be windy and warm. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late in the day or during the evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 73°

It will turn much cooler overnight into tomorrow, but temperatures will rapidly rebound early next week. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.8°; 15-Year: 59.5°

[LoboLeader1]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s over let it go

Old habits die hard.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

 

OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter. 

someone should do a Day 8 comparison vs reality of how much snow was forecast at Day 8 on these models vs what actually happened.  We should do a model by model comparison to see which model was most accurate at Day 8 (translation: showed the least snow, because that's reality.)

 

[SACRUS]

64 degrees  Clearing approaching quickly now moving through EPA

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

There is that late winter/early spring cold in 1923 again.  Must have been some chilly stretch mid/late march and early april 1923.

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1978)
NYC: 83 (1917)
LGA: 80 (1978)

Lows: 

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 12 (1923)
LGA: 27 (1969)

 

Historical:

 

 

1875: The London Times published the first daily newspaper weather map. The first American newspaper weather map would be issued on 5/12/1876 in the New York Herald. Weather maps would first appear on a regular basis beginning on 5/9/1879 in the New York Daily Graphic.

 

1912 - A tornado with incredible velocity ripped into downtown Houston, TX, breaking the water table and giving the city its first natural waterspout. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Residents in the eastern U.S. awoke on "April Fool's Day" to bitterly cold temperatures. The mercury plunged to -34 degrees at Bergland MI and to 16 degrees in Georgia. (David Ludlum)

 

1960: The first weather satellite, TIROS 1 (Television and Infra-Red Observation Satellite) began sending pictures back to Earth. The TIROS series would have little benefit to operational weather forecasters because the image quality was low and inconsistent. The most critical understanding achieved from the new technology was the discovery of the high degree of organization of large-scale weather systems, a fact never apparent from ground and aircraft observations. 

 

1973: A tornado touches down near Brentsville, Virginia, then traveled to Fairfax hitting Woodson High School. This F2 tornado injured 37 and caused $14 million in damage.

1987 - Forty-five cities across the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 37 degrees at Apalachicola FL, 34 degrees at Jacksonville FL, 30 degrees at Macon GA, and 22 degrees at Knoxville TN, were records for April. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - A tornado touched down briefly during a snow squall on the south shore of White Fish Bay (six miles northwest of Bay Mills WI). A mobile home was unroofed and insulation was sucked from its walls. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A powerful spring storm produced 34 inches of snow at Rye CO, 22 inches at Timpas OK, 19 inches at Sharon Springs KS, and up to 35 inches in New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms associated with the same storm spawned a tornado which caused 2.5 million dollars damage at East Mountain TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Up to six inches of snow blanketed the Adirondacks of eastern New York State and the Saint Lawrence Valley of Vermont. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Colorado Rockies. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Texas, from southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to southern Georgia, and from northern South Carolina to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado at Evergreen AL, and there were more than eighty reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail north of Bastrop LA, and produced damaging winds which injured one person west of Meridian MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2011:

Snowmelt flooding in March continued across much of central and northeast South Dakota as the rest of the snowpack melted into early April. Many roads along with many acres of crop and pastureland remained flooded. Roads, culverts, and bridges were damaged across the region. Several roads were washed out with many closed. Many homes were threatened with some surrounded by water. Rising lake levels in northeast South Dakota also threatened and flooded many homes. Many people had to use four-wheelers to get to their homes. A Presidential Disaster was declared for all counties due to the flooding damage. The total damage estimates, including March, were from 4.5 to 5 million dollars for the area. The flooding diminished across much of the area into May. The snowmelt flooding damaged many roads and highways, including U.S. Highway 81, throughout Hamlin County. Many roads were closed throughout the county. In the late evening of April 13th on U.S Highway 81, a car with four people inside went through a flooded area at a high rate of speed and ended up in the flooded ditch. They all got out with no injuries. The snowmelt runoff caused Lake Kampeska to rise to nearly 44 inches overfull. The lake flooded several roads and also threatened many homes. Sandbagging was done to hold off the rising lake. Waves and ice chunks did eventually do some damage to homes. Also, many boat lifts were damaged. Mud Creek near Rauville also went slightly above the flood stage of 9 feet to 9.64 feet for a couple of days in early April.

[allgame830]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

64 degrees  Clearing approaching quickly now moving through EPA

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

I would assume the quicker we clear out the more destabilization. By the looks of that should be around 1-2pm.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think that matters as much today. 

Severe parameters are favorable to the coasts. 

 

Jersey yes, north and east of NYC looks like the usual spring time fall apart

[donsutherland1]

The sun has now come out in Harrisburg. As the warm front continues to push through, rain and clouds should give way to a period of partly to mostly sunny and warm conditions this afternoon.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

MSP with another 8-10 over night. What a winter for that area 

I believe they are approaching 90” this morning which would be 3rd highest.

Around 3” more after this chart was compiled through yesterday

 

Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1983-1984	98.6	0
2	1981-1982	95.0	0
3	1950-1951	88.9	0
4	2010-2011	86.6	0
5	2022-2023	86.5	183
6	1916-1917	84.9	0
7	1991-1992	84.1	0
8	1961-1962	81.2	0
9	1951-1952	79.0	0
10	1966-1967	78.4	0

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe they are approaching 90” this morning which would be 3rd highest.

Around 3” more after this chart was compiled through yesterday

 

Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1983-1984	98.6	0
2	1981-1982	95.0	0
3	1950-1951	88.9	0
4	2010-2011	86.6	0
5	2022-2023	86.5	183
6	1916-1917	84.9	0
7	1991-1992	84.1	0
8	1961-1962	81.2	0
9	1951-1952	79.0	0
10	1966-1967	78.4	0

Yup, 89.7 which would be 3rd overall. They will have a shot of more accumulating snowfall next week. 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, 89.7 which would be 3rd overall. They will have a shot of more accumulating snowfall next week. 

with the winter storm track through the lakes there were on the good side of most of these storms..

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

I would assume the quicker we clear out the more destabilization. By the looks of that should be around 1-2pm.

That's a really clear dry slot. You don't see that very often around here with severe events. 

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a really clear dry slot. You don't see that very often around here with severe events. 

What do you mean by that? Potential for a greater chance to see some interesting weather later this afternoon/evening?

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What do you mean by that? Potential for a greater chance to see some interesting weather later this afternoon/evening?

I think so. Plenty of time to destabilize. High shear, high lapse rates, high humidity. 

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think so. Plenty of time to destabilize. High shear, high lapse rates, high humidity. 

Oh boy…. A lot of times are biggest svr events come with a slight risk. 

[allgame830]

That whole line in OHIO is severe warned. 

[Stormlover74]

[bluewave]

Peak gust of 71 mph so far with numerous 60s gusts.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Looks like more of a QLCS / straight line wind risk today with the potential for spin ups instead of discrete tornadic cells. But will be interesting to see how this plays out today. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Oh boy…. A lot of times are biggest svr events come with a slight risk. 

There's something that confuses me about this....NWS says slight risk is 2% to 5%

TWC talking about Tor:Con or TCI saying their index is better because it measures "true risk"-- they have us under 30% (for E PA to NJ to Staten Island) and 20% (NYC and Western Long Island) and say their index measures likelihood of a tornado within 50 miles.  They said that the "slight" risk and 2-5 percent gives people a false sense of security and 20% to 30% represents the way people should see the risk of seeing a tornado nearby.

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

hmmm it probably wont just stop at the Queens line lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think so. Plenty of time to destabilize. High shear, high lapse rates, high humidity. 

is that like a dryline you often see that in Texas or the SW and it creates some of the worst outbreaks there

 

[bluewave]

80 mph gust from Lake Erie buoy.