April 2023

[Allsnow]

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man spring is going to get to a hot start. Already seeing June like temperatures by mid April. 

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be briefly cooler until much warmer air surges into the region for Thursday. Some thunderstorms are possible later in the day or during the evening.

Overall, the first week of April will turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance brings a brief shot of the cooler air into the East early in the second week of April, but the EPS weeklies have backed off on the cold. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today.

On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.079 (RMM).

 

[LoboLeader1]

70F for a high here today.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

Looks like some more thunderstorms. But not the steep mid-level lapse rates and high helicity values like the other day. So no big tornado outbreak. But we may get enough instability and shear for some straight line severe gusts. We’ll see if Philly to CNJ is the thunderstorm magnet again. Maybe the stronger warm sector can help push some of the bigger storms closer to I-78 to I-80 this time.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Very warm days at NYC April 1-15

A complete listing of days that reached 75F or higher.

Current record highs bold type. Arranged by decades from 1869 to 2023. 

 

 1. .............................................. 83 1917 .............................................. 82 1978 ................75 2006..79 2016 ...

 2. ................................................78 1918 ....77 1934. 75 1946..80 1963 81 1967.................................................

 3. .............75 1892 ...............................................75 1945........................76 1967...81 1981 .......77 2002.............

 4. .............80 1892......................78 1921...............76 1950..................75 1974.........................76 2010 ..........

 5. .................................75 1910 ...79 1921..80 1928......................................75 1985.77 1989. .75 2010...........

 6. ................................. 76 1910 79 1912,1921.77 1928..79 1947......................77 1991..75 2005...78 2010.80 2023.

 7. ................................75 1908 .............89 1929 ...82 1942................................. 87 1991..78 2005...92 2010..

 8. .85 1871 ............................................88 1929 .........77 1954.83 1959 ......75 1986..90 1991. 80 1999 80 2010 ....

 9. .83 1871 ...................................................................................76 1970...75 1981....86 1991..........82 2013........

10. .80 1871 ..79 1887 ..................86 1922 ................79 1955 ................................75 1991....75 2008 .........

11. ................ 78 1887 ..................80 1922 .................. 84 1955 .............................77 1987.......... 81 2011 80 2017 75 2023

12. ..............................................................................78 1947 ................90 1977............80 1996....76 2008 76 2017 84 2023.

13. .................79 1890 .77 1896 .......................81 1945 ...82 1968..(88 1977)76 1978...78 2006 77 2014..82 2018 77 2019 90 2023 

14. ......80 1880 ......................... 76 1930 77 1938 (85 1941) 83 1945 79 1949 .........75 2002 75 2014.. 77 2018 .79 2022.91 2023

15. ......77 1880 ..... 79 1896 ....78 1925 ..84 1938 87 1941 78 1942 83 1960...76 1976..76 1994.82 2002 81 2003 80 2006 77 2012..

___________________________________

If there's continued warmth I can post a similar graphic table for days 80+ in second half of April. Soon after this table ends, you get into the four-day 2002 and 1976 record heat waves both times reaching 96, the monthly maximum (17th 2002, 18th 1976). There was a similar heat wave in April 1896 (87, 88, 90 F followed the 79F shown for 15th above, all were broken in 2002 and or 1976).

Some of the record highs from 1871 to 1910 are way below the pace, notably 7th had only hit 61F (1871) until 1904 edged it out at 62F, and 12th 68F in 1889 was the record until 73F in 1945. 

A reverse case would be April 2nd where the highest reading since the record high of 81F in 1967 is 73F in 1986 then only 68F from 2006, 2010.

It was odd that 1929 lost two very impressive records of 89 and 88 (to 7th 2010 and 8th 1991), those values would have been  at least tied records on any other day to April 25th except for 12th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. 

(Note: edited in five new 75+ days in 2023 so far _ Apr 14)

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

there's continued warmth I can post a similar graphic table for days 80+ in second half of April. Soon after this table ends, you get into the four-day 2002 and 1976 record heat waves both times reaching 96, the monthly maximum (17th 2002, 18th 1976). There was a similar heat wave in April 1896 (87, 88, 90 F followed the 79F shown for 15th above, all were broken in 2002 and or 1976).

Yeah, April 1976 was the only time the warmest day of the year was in April. But 2009 was a tie. Both years were followed by memorable winters. 
 

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2002	69	63	72	96	86	92	96	98	91	84	68	60	98
1976	56	70	72	96	83	92	90	94	89	73	61	55	96
2010	57	46	74	92	92	93	103	96	96	75	65	60	103
2009	47	65	70	92	86	84	86	92	84	74	69	66	92
1915	58	58	59	92	79	90	93	89	94	79	71	57	94
1990	66	65	85	91	83	89	95	93	89	84	78	66	95
1962	56	56	79	91	99	93	96	91	88	85	62	68	99
1942	57	52	69	91	92	89	97	93	93	84	74	58	97
1991	55	70	77	90	93	97	102	94	93	80	74	66	102

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like some more thunderstorms. But not the steep mid-level lapse rates and high helicity values like the other day. So no big tornado outbreak. But we may get enough instability and shear for some straight line severe gusts. We’ll see if Philly to CNJ is the thunderstorm magnet again. Maybe the stronger warm sector can help push some of the bigger storms closer to I-78 to I-80 this time.

 

 

Yeah, hopefully more action further north this time. Looks like a very warm start to April. Euro indicating another run at 80 next week 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

100s by June

We're due for a Pac NW style heat dome. 110+ readings 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

West of NYC.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like some more thunderstorms. But not the steep mid-level lapse rates and high helicity values like the other day. So no big tornado outbreak. But we may get enough instability and shear for some straight line severe gusts. We’ll see if Philly to CNJ is the thunderstorm magnet again. Maybe the stronger warm sector can help push some of the bigger storms closer to I-78 to I-80 this time.

 

 

With the rapidly warming Atlantic waters that should theoretically enhance Tstorm activity

[forkyfork]

so we might have a summer like 2009 or 2010. cool

[forkyfork]

april in nyc <3 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, hopefully more action further north this time. Looks like a very warm start to April. Euro indicating another run at 80 next week 

Yeah, at some point the warm spots like Newark should at least make the mid 80s this month. Could be a little higher like several years since 2010.  Especially with the -PNA and SE Ridge. I will laugh if we still that have that Western Trough next winter again even with an El Niño. Would have to be a strong enough -PDO like the 72-73 El Niño to pull that one off.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

100s by June

We're due for a Pac NW style heat dome. 110+ readings 

Just kill me now. 

I want to be encased in a solid block of ice and shipped off to Nunavut. 

[Roger Smith]

Looking at summers that follow April record highs (or near misses) you can have the full range of outcomes so I wouldn't read much into it. Summers like 1941, 1955, 2002, 2010 are balanced by poor summers like 1915, 1942, 1967, 1976, 2009. You also get mid-range summers like 1892, 1929, 1977. I would not be surprised if the correlation was either random of slightly negative. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, at some point the warm spots like Newark should at least make the mid 80s this month. Could be a little higher like several years since 2010.  Especially with the -PNA and SE Ridge. I will laugh if we still that have that Western Trough next winter again even with an El Niño. Would have to be a strong enough -PDO like the 72-73 El Niño to pull that one off.

 

Until that cold area off the West Coast to Alaska warms up, and the warm area around Australia to Indonesia cools down, odds are against us having a cold/snowy winter. Simple as that, unless the El Nino can completely overwhelm those. I'm not sure if this is a decadal PDO/IOD trend we have to deal with now or something more temporary, but those show no signs of changing, and they'll push a Nina like state as long as they stay that way. Hopefully the Nino can become mod to strong and turn Modoki, to at least take the edge off that awfulness. 

As for today, gorgeous and hopefully next week will feature more of it. Tomorrow will suck but should be short lived at least. Nothing worse than patterns like last spring with days and days of endless ENE onshore garbage.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature reached 73° in Central Park today. Thursday should be at least several degrees warmer.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The AMOC slowdown pulls the Gulf Stream in closer to the Northeast and only cools a small part of the North Atlantic south of Greenland.

In the North Atlantic, the measured values differ markedly from the average global warming: the subpolar Atlantic (an area about half the size of the USA, south of Greenland) has hardly warmed up and in some cases even cooled down, contrary to the global warming trend. In contrast, a wide area along the American east coast has warmed up at an excessive rate. Both can be attributed to a weakening of the AMOC in the model simulation. The cooling is simply due to the reduced heat input from the AMOC. The excessive warming, on the other hand, is based on a somewhat more nerdy mechanism that has been known to experts for some time: if the AMOC weakens, the Gulf Stream shifts closer to the coast. (This has to do with conservation of angular momentum on the rotating globe.)

 

study by Duchez et al. (2016) shows that cold in the North Atlantic correlates with summer heat in Europe. This is due to the fact that the heat transport in the Atlantic has not yet decreased strongly enough to cause cooling also over the adjacent land areas – but the cold of the sea surface is sufficient to influence the air pressure distribution. It does that in such a way that an influx of warm air from the south into Europe is encouraged. In summer 2015, the subpolar Atlantic was colder than ever since records began in the 19th century – associated with a heat wave in Europe. Haarsma et al (2015) argue on the basis of model calculations that the weakening of the AMOC will be the main cause of changes in the summer circulation of the atmosphere over Europe in the future. Jackson et al (2015) found that the slowdown could lead to increased storm activity in Central Europe. And a number of studies suggest that if the AMOC weakens, sea levels on the US coast will rise more sharply (e.g. Yin et al. 2009). The impacts are currently being further researched, but a further AMOC slowdown cannot be considered good news. Yet, although the oscillations seen in Fig. 2 suggest the AMOC may well swing up again for a while, a long-term further weakening is what we have to expect if we let global warming continue for much longer.

 

Probably why it's been getting so hot in Europe the last few years, with London hitting 100.  Would this mean rapid warming of our summers eventually too?  Because climatologically we should be hitting 100 more frequently than London anyway.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Younger Dryas. 

Discounting the theories about a large airburst meteor strike causing the sharp return to near stadial conditions, the traditional thinking is that it was caused by the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet shutting down the AMOC (snapping it into its “slow” state, apparently the AMOC has two stable configurations, the one we’re in now and and “off” or “slow” state). When the forcing of the meltwater dissipated, temperatures sharply rebounded. 

We’re seeing something similar now with the melting of Greenland slowing the AMOC and the melting of Antarctica slowing the SMOC (new papers came out in 2023 about this, highly suggest reading). Will it be enough to terminate the overall thermohaline circulation into its other configuration? Continued slowing is a guarantee, which already implies destabilization.  
 

Edit:

This is one of the newer studies:

Paper

It’s believed the slowing SMOC by 2050 will cause something like an additional ~20% slowdown in the AMOC. 

is there any evidence for a large airburst meteor strike though?

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

just glad that the typical rainy spring stuff isn't happening.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be briefly cooler until much warmer air surges into the region for Thursday. Some thunderstorms are possible later in the day or during the evening.

Overall, the first week of April will turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance brings a brief shot of the cooler air into the East early in the second week of April, but the EPS weeklies have backed off on the cold. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -6.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today.

On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.079 (RMM).

 

Don is there a chance to hit 90 in April this year?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, April 1976 was the only time the warmest day of the year was in April. But 2009 was a tie. Both years were followed by memorable winters. 
 

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2002	69	63	72	96	86	92	96	98	91	84	68	60	98
1976	56	70	72	96	83	92	90	94	89	73	61	55	96
2010	57	46	74	92	92	93	103	96	96	75	65	60	103
2009	47	65	70	92	86	84	86	92	84	74	69	66	92
1915	58	58	59	92	79	90	93	89	94	79	71	57	94
1990	66	65	85	91	83	89	95	93	89	84	78	66	95
1962	56	56	79	91	99	93	96	91	88	85	62	68	99
1942	57	52	69	91	92	89	97	93	93	84	74	58	97
1991	55	70	77	90	93	97	102	94	93	80	74	66	102

 

2002 had a much better summer and was also followed by a great winter...ditto for 2010

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Very warm days at NYC April 1-15

A complete listing of days that reached 75F or higher.

Current record highs bold type. Arranged by decades from 1869 to 2023. 

 

 1. .............................................. 83 1917 .............................................. 82 1978 ................75 2006..79 2016 ...

 2. ................................................78 1918 ....77 1934. 75 1946..80 1963 81 1967.................................................

 3. .............75 1892 ...............................................75 1945................76 1967..81 1981.......77 2002.............

 4. .............80 1892......................78 1921...............76 1950..................75 1974....................76 2010 ..........

 5. .................................75 1910 ...79 1921..80 1928......................................75 1985.77 1989..75 2010...........

 6. ................................. 76 1910 79 1912,1921.77 1928..79 1947..........................77 1991..75 2005...78 2010 ..

 7. ................................75 1908 .............89 1929 ...82 1942.................................. 87 1991..78 2005...92 2010..

 8. .85 1871 ............................................88 1929 .........77 1954.83 1959 ......75 1986..90 1991. 80 1999 80 2010 ....

 9. .83 1871 ...................................................................................76 1970...75 1981....86 1991..........82 2013........

10. .80 1871 ..79 1887 ..................86 1922 ................79 1955 ................................75 1991....75 2008 .........

11. ................ 78 1887 ..................80 1922 ................ 84 1955 .............................77 1987....... 81 2011 80 2017..

12. ............................................................................78 1947 .....................90 1977.....80 1996...76 2008 76 2017.

13. .................79 1890 .77 1896 .............................81 1945 ......82 1968...88 1977.76 1978...78 2006 77 2014..82 2018 77 2019 ..

14. ......80 1880 ............................ 76 1930 77 1938 85 1941 83 1945 79 1949 ...........................75 2002 75 2014... 77 2018 .79 2022.

15. ......77 1880 ...... 79 1896 ......78 1925 ..84 1938 87 1941 78 1942 83 1960...76 1976..76 1994.82 2002 81 2003 80 2006 77 2012..

___________________________________

If there's continued warmth I can post a similar graphic table for days 80+ in second half of April. Soon after this table ends, you get into the four-day 2002 and 1976 record heat waves both times reaching 96, the monthly maximum (17th 2002, 18th 1976). There was a similar heat wave in April 1896 (87, 88, 90 F followed the 79F shown for 15th above, all were broken in 2002 and or 1976).

Some of the record highs from 1871 to 1910 are way below the pace, notably 7th had only hit 61F (1871) until 1904 edged it out at 62F, and 12th 68F in 1889 was the record until 73F in 1945. 

A reverse case would be April 2nd where the highest reading since the record high of 81F in 1967 is 73F in 1986 then only 68F from 2006, 2010.

It was odd that 1929 lost two very impressive records of 89 and 88 (to 7th 2010 and 8th 1991), those values would have been  at least tied records on any other day to April 25th except for 12th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. 

 

2002 analog may come into play

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

100s by June

We're due for a Pac NW style heat dome. 110+ readings 

100 with dry heat is perfect!

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

so we might have a summer like 2009 or 2010. cool

yes perfect!

and/or 2002

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, at some point the warm spots like Newark should at least make the mid 80s this month. Could be a little higher like several years since 2010.  Especially with the -PNA and SE Ridge. I will laugh if we still that have that Western Trough next winter again even with an El Niño. Would have to be a strong enough -PDO like the 72-73 El Niño to pull that one off.

 

I'd like to see 90s in April.

80s is still mediocre

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Looking at summers that follow April record highs (or near misses) you can have the full range of outcomes so I wouldn't read much into it. Summers like 1941, 1955, 2002, 2010 are balanced by poor summers like 1915, 1942, 1967, 1976, 2009. You also get mid-range summers like 1892, 1929, 1977. I would not be surprised if the correlation was either random of slightly negative. 

hot summers followed by snowy winters usually happen when an el nino hands off to a la nina or vice versa

 

[Roger Smith]

Taking the list of 75+ days in first half of April that I posted yesterday, this is a frequency count of those days for twenty-two equal periods of seven years (not counting this year which as of April 13 will have four) ... 

1869-1875 _ 3

1876-1882 _ 1

1883-1889 _ 2

1890-1896 _ 5

1897-1903_ 0

1904-1910_ 3

1911-1917 _ 2

1918-1924 _ 6

1925-1931 _ 6

1932-1938 _ 3

1939-1945 _ 7

1946-1952 _ 5

1953-1959 _ 4

1960-1966 _ 2

1967-1973 _ 4

1974-1980 _ 6

1981-1987 _ 5

1988-1994 _ 7

1995-2001 _ 2

2002-2008 _11

2009-2015 _ 10

2016-2022 _ 7

(total) ___ 101

(average per 7 yrs) _ 4.6

(average 1974-2022) _ 6.9 or nearly 1 per year

(average 2002-2022) _ 9.3 or about 1.3 per year

(average 1869-1917) _ 2.3 (per 7 yr) or about one every 3 years

The interval 1918 to 1973 averages 4.6 (per 7 yr) or about 2 every 3 years

... so the pace is slowly increasing, although it was almost as active around the 1940s as it is now. The 1960s saw a drop back to about the frequency before 1910. 

The 101 warm days occurred in a total of 62 years, these 92 years did not have one ...

1869, 1870, 1872, 1873, 1874, 1875, 1876, 1877, 1878, 1879, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1886, 1888, 1889, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1897, 1898, 1899, 1900, 1901, 1902, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1909, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1927, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1939, 1940, 1943, 1944, 1948, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998 (had several in late March), 2000, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2015, 2020, 2021

The have not years were 41 of the first 52, and 51 of the next 102 (1921-2022). That ratio is exactly half. From 1979 to 2022 the ratio was 20 of 44, so it has not fallen much. It has been five of 16 since 2007, under one third. Of all these "have not" years, only a few broke into the 80+ group for April 16-30, including 1899, 1915, 1923, 1927, 1962, 1990, 2007 and 2009. 

 

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

april in nyc <3 

Awful, often sets up just north of Philly

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     57degs.(48/65) or about +4.

Reached 63 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:    52-56, wind e., cloudy, 55 tomorrow AM.

53*(96%RH} here at 7am{was 55 overnight} FOG-about a 1/2 mile.       Basically 53*/54* all day to 5pm. so far.       51* at 7pm and foggy all day now.

NOW HEAR THIS     GFS 0Z SAYS  April 13-20 will be  73(64/82) or +18 !!!