April 2023

[Roger Smith]

If the absolute dry spell ends today at NYC, then April 2-14 (13 days) is the longest stretch with zero total rainfall (or traces) in April since 2012 (15 days Apr 3-17, 2012) and counting those with some days in April, since 2015 with 23 days (Apr 23 to May 15, 2015). A slightly longer but similarly timed dry spell was 26 days from Apr 22 to May 17, 2001.

I find that about 20% of all Aprils have a ten-day absolute dry spell and another 15% have a ten-day or longer interval with less than 0.01" every two days. An example of the latter type occurred last year (Apr 20 to May 1, 2022 had .02" on Apr 26). 

The longest absolute dry spell within April was 20 days in 1942 (Apr 11 to Apr 30) and that dry spell added five more days May 1-5.  April 3 to 21 1976 (19 days) April 6 to 23 1977 (18 days) were second and third longest. Other years with a dry spell similar to this year would be 1968 (9th to 21st) and 1971 (8th to 20th), as well as 1910 (7th to 16th, but an earlier spell of 14 days March 21 to Apr 3 was separated from the second dry spell by only 0.19" of rain April 4-6, and in fact the total rainfall from March 8 to April 16 1910 was only 0.31" and this was quite a warm period too with some highs near 80 F. The very warm spell in mid-April of 1896 had a 13-day dry spell from April 8 to 20, then after 0.23" fell 21st-22nd, another dry spell ran from Apr 23 to May 2 and it stayed quite dry until a three-day heat wave in May, even after that normal amounts of rain only returned in very late stages of May. And in 1877 it was dry from 3rd to 17th (15 days) while 1887 matched this year (2nd to 14th). 

[Allsnow]

@Stormlover74 getting dumped on 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Stormlover74 getting dumped on 

Still light here

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still light here

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

It's coming down in buckets here now. Hopefully this downpour will hit Stormlover as it moves north. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

It's picking up now

[donsutherland1]

Today was a variably cloudy and cooler day. Parts of the region saw some rain and even thunderstorms. Temperatures reached the lower and middle 70s in contrast to yesterday's upper 80s and lower 90s. Nevertheless, record heat persisted for another day across parts of Upstate New York, Vermont, and southern Canada. Numerous high temperature records were toppled in Ontario. Burlington reached 85°, which broke the daily mark of 82° from 2003.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.558 today.

On April 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.863 (RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.005 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.6° (3.9° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

[winterwx21]

Now a nice steady moderate rain. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good soaking this evening. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Now a nice steady moderate rain. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good soaking this evening. 

Same here. I don’t need 3-4 inches in a hour. This is best currently. Everything looks to be moving towards nyc 

[Snowlover11]

about to rock here in about 15-20 mins

[Stormlover74]

57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Now a nice steady moderate rain. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good soaking this evening. 

Yeah a nice half inch so far

[weathermedic]

Looks like the intensity is decreasing somewhat as the sun sets

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah a nice half inch so far

Heavy rain currently 

[Picard]

Mostly light to periodically brief heavy rain on and off all afternoon along with hours of scattered lightening and thunder.  Rain gauge only registered 0.75" so far which seems accurate as the most intense cells skipped just west of us.  Rainfall totals are much more impressive to the west in a line from Hunterdon County up through High Point State Park.

It looks like things are calming down.  Haven't heard thunder now in over a half hour and radar is showing less intensity.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Heavy rain currently 

.85 light rain. Great soaking tonight 

[ForestHillWx]

Finished with about 2.5”; noaa rain gauge confirms (not sure the accuracy). 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     60degs.(53/68) or +4.

Month to date is     59.6[+8.8].      Should be     59.8[+7.1] by the 24th.   If the second half of April just averages Normal, 56.4, this will be the warmest April ever.

Reached 70 yesterday at 3pm.

Today:    63-68, wind e. to s., cloudy, 55 tomorrow AM.

58*(93%RH) here at 7am- variable fog{was 56 overnight}     61* at 9am.     62* at 10am.       65* at 2pm.      66* at 3pm.     58* at 7pm-basically in and out of some fog all day, like yesterday.       55* at 11pm.

[Santa Claus]

getting warm and sticky weather started basically as soon as possible lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Finished with about 2.5”; noaa rain gauge confirms (not sure the accuracy). 

Nice. 0.0 here on the island and .02” at the park. I really hope this isn’t the start of another warm season drought for the island. 

[donsutherland1]

Fog briefly rolls in:

[MANDA]

Received 1.34" rain here. Western half of NJ did best with lowest amounts eastern half.  Some NJ coastal area communities had little to nothing.  Friend in Mt. Laurel had dime to quarter size hail falling for better than 3 minutes.  Ground covered.

[SACRUS]

0.20 in the bucket here in CNJ, missed the much heavier rains to the north by 5-10 miles.  58 and now 60.  Low clouds will be slow to urn but should be full sun by the afternoon and shoot temps to near / low 70s.  Front comes through Mon (4/17) with more showers before a cooler Tue (4/18) and Wed (4/19).   Brief warm up Thu (4/20) - Fri (4/21) and with full sun perhaps a stray 80 or so.  Next front and chance for rain comes next weekend Sat (4/22).  Cooler period 4/23 - 4/27 overall last 10 days near normal.  Not looking very wet overall either.  Strong warmth looks to subside outside warmer days Thu/FRo this week for a week or so.

[SACRUS]

 

Stuck like glue but slowly burning of by the PM.

 

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

 

 

[weathermedic]

Up to 69 at my station on a light ENE wind. Sun shining through the clouds.

[Volcanic Winter]

Yup, I had next to no rain at all. We seemed to suck on virga for a bit and things got damp, but no measurable rain fell.
 

Definitely feels like we’re starting to dry out around here. 

[Tatamy]

My total from yesterday was 1.45”

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yup, I had next to no rain at all. We seemed to suck on virga for a bit and things got damp, but no measurable rain fell.
 

Definitely feels like we’re starting to dry out around here. 

same here a couple one hundreths of an inch then some drizzle.   

[gravitylover]

I got .4. Not nearly enough to make up for the recent dryness. 

[donsutherland1]

Following four consecutive 80° or above days, Madison is about to see 2"-5" of snow overnight into tomorrow. Should measurable snowfall be recorded today, that would be the first time Madison has ever seen measurable snowfall one day after an 80° or above reading. Madison has had 3 measurable snowfalls two days after such a temperature: April 2, 1978: 0.5", October 23, 1979: 0.2", and April 9, 1991: 0.5".

No such wintry weather is likely anytime soon in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. However, it will turn briefly cooler this week.

Tomorrow will be another mild day, but a brief shot of much cooler air will follow. Tuesday may see the temperature stay in the 50s in New York City and struggle to reach the lower 60s in Philadelphia. Milder air will then follow, but a more sustained cool period could develop next weekend.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -12.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.848 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.657 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.854 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.6° (3.9° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

[MANDA]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following four consecutive 80° or above days, Madison is about to see 2"-5" of snow overnight into tomorrow. Should measurable snowfall be recorded today, that would be the first time Madison has ever seen measurable snowfall one day after an 80° or above reading. Madison has had 3 measurable snowfalls two days after such a temperature: April 2, 1978: 0.5", October 23, 1979: 0.2", and April 9, 1991: 0.5".

No such wintry weather is likely anytime soon in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. However, it will turn briefly cooler this week.

Tomorrow will be another mild day, but a brief shot of much cooler air will follow. Tuesday may see the temperature stay in the 50s in New York City and struggle to reach the lower 60s in Philadelphia. Milder air will then follow, but a more sustained cool period could develop next weekend.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -12.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.848 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.657 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.854 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.6° (3.9° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

Yet another month of above normal temperatures.  Don, any idea what the record is for NYC for most consecutive months of above normal temperatures.  Is there such a record kept?  Any way to find out what the most consecutive number of above normal months is?  Even if just .10 degree above normal.  Just wondering. Thanks as always for you daily updates.  Always an interesting read.