April 2023

[dWave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I've noticed about the sea breeze is the temperature experiences a jump just before the sea breeze comes in.  It's almost like a temperature rise just before a cold front passes.  And after the sea breeze comes through the sky clears out-- also similar to a cold front passage.

 

Yeah I fell 5 degrees the last hr to 88

[psv88]

87 here today. No 90s in this stretch, but impressive heat for mid April. Some years we don’t get this hot until July. 

[Cfa]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I've noticed about the sea breeze is the temperature experiences a jump just before the sea breeze comes in.  It's almost like a temperature rise just before a cold front passes.  And after the sea breeze comes through the sky clears out-- also similar to a cold front passage.

 

I used to live next to the LIE, which was a north shore vs south shore climate battleground. The sea breeze didn't always make it that far inland, but its appearance was normally the hottest part of the day.

I watched this happen in real time today, my temp spiked up to 94 and quickly fell back into the 88-90 range. This happened over the course of a few minutes. Now I have a fake high temp for my records. Yesterday felt hotter with sustained 90’s.

[ForestHillWx]

88, at least it isn’t humid. This needs to wait at least another month. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I used to live next to the LIE, which was a north shore vs south shore climate battleground. The sea breeze didn't always make it that far inland, but its appearance was normally the hottest part of the day.

I watched this happen in real time today, my temp spiked up to 94 and quickly fell back into the 88-90 range. This happened over the course of a few minutes. Now I have a fake high temp for my records. Yesterday felt hotter with sustained 90’s.

I've always hated the sea breeze because it makes the air more humid, I'd rather it come in closer to sunset and not spoil the hot temp party.  I hate the sea breeze as much as I hate the rain/snow line moving north.

And now ABC7/Lee Goldberg said just a few minutes ago that the sea breeze caused those fires to our north in Rockland County to spread more quickly as the wind speeds picked up.  So that's another reason to hate the sea breeze.

 

[donsutherland1]

Hartford recorded its earliest 95° reading on record:

New York City also recorded its earliest two consecutive 90° days. The old record was set during April 16-17, 2002.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how close has NYC gotten to 90 so far?

 

It peaked at 91.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Warm temps probably contributed to dry fuels.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this the airport for Hartford?

 

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hartford recorded its earliest 95° reading on record:

New York City also recorded its earliest two consecutive 90° days. The old record was set during April 16-17, 2002.

ORH with its earliest 90 degree reading. Crazy 

[doncat]

91° here today after 89° yesterday. 

[Allsnow]

 

[winterwx21]

High temp of 93 here today. Another beautiful day. I did a little running out there in the heat and it didn't feel bad at all thanks to the low humidity. 

I hope the models are right about downpours for tomorrow. I was just out there watering the vegetable garden, and it's very dry. We really need some rain. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hartford recorded its earliest 95° reading on record:

New York City also recorded its earliest two consecutive 90° days. The old record was set during April 16-17, 2002.

So that must have been our earliest heat wave on record too since in 2002 we had 3 days of 90+ and peaked at 96 (same as 1976)-- I think the one in 1976 was displaced a day later?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

Don, what's the earliest 90 degree day on record for JFK-- the only time I remember JFK hitting 90 degrees in April was during the heatwave in April 2002?  Did it also happen in April 1976?  And I believe there have never been multiple days of 90+ at JFK in April have there?  Thanks!

 

[FPizz]

89 yesterday 88 today

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It’s also New England’s earliest 95-degree reading on record.

Looks like they made it to 96° on the update.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0519 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT HARTFORD CT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1941.

[lee59]

86 my high today, now  71.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

So that must have been our earliest heat wave on record too since in 2002 we had 3 days of 90+ and peaked at 96 (same as 1976)-- I think the one in 1976 was displaced a day later?

 

 

Yes, the 2002 heatwave was the earliest on record.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like they made it to 96° on the update.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0519 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT HARTFORD CT TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1941.

They did. That tied the April monthly record from April 19, 1976.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what's the earliest 90 degree day on record for JFK-- the only time I remember JFK hitting 90 degrees in April was during the heatwave in April 2002?  Did it also happen in April 1976?  And I believe there have never been multiple days of 90+ at JFK in April have there?  Thanks!

 

April 12, 1977. The highest temperature in 1976 was 89.

[donsutherland1]

Today was a historic day for early heat in New England. Hartford tied its April record high and established New England's earliest 95° or above reading on record.

Records included:

Albany: 89° (old record: 83°, 1938 and 1968)
Allentown: 88° (old record: 87°, 2018)
Bangor: 76° (old record: 74°, 1949)
Binghamton: 85° (old record: 79°, 1968)
Boston: 83° (old record: 81°, 1945)
Bridgeport: 87° (old record: 73°, 1949) ***Hottest temperature so early in the season***
Concord: 90° (old record: 84°, 1870)
Hartford: 96° (old record: 82°, 1941) ***Tied monthly city and state record; Earliest 95° temperature in New England***
Islip: 84° (old record: 73°, 1977, 2002, and 2022)
Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 79°, 2014)
Mount Pocono, PA: 84° (old record: 82°, 1941)
New York City-Central Park: 91° (old record: 85°, 1941) ***Earliest 2 consecutive 90° days***
New York City-JFK Airport: 82° (old record: 78°, 1949)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 89° (old record: 84°, 1941)
Newark: 93° (old record: 88°, 1941 and 2022) ***Earliest 93° or above reading on record***
Portland: 79° (old record: 77°, 1941)
Poughkeepsie: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941)
Providence: 87° (old record: 83°, 1945)
Scranton: 91° (old record: 84°, 1968) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***
Syracuse: 86° (old record: 83°, 1968)
Worcester: 90° (old record: 79°, 1938) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***

Cooler weather will follow. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.047 today.

On April 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.004 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.5° (3.8° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

[donsutherland1]

[CIK62]

At the 3pm peak today, I was practically in the yellow.     I topped out at just 77 at Noon.      Had 69 at 4pm!      Heat drifting back now, 73 at 8pm.    My thermometer is just about 1500 feet from the water and there was air movement off the water with a filtered sun.      So I was 86, 88, 77 the last 3 days.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was a historic day for early heat in New England. Hartford tied its April record high and established New England's earliest 95° or above reading on record.

Records included:

Albany: 89° (old record: 83°, 1938 and 1968)
Allentown: 88° (old record: 87°, 2018)
Bangor: 76° (old record: 74°, 1949)
Binghamton: 85° (old record: 79°, 1968)
Boston: 83° (old record: 81°, 1945)
Bridgeport: 87° (old record: 73°, 1949) ***Hottest temperature so early in the season***
Concord: 90° (old record: 84°, 1870)
Hartford: 96° (old record: 82°, 1941) ***Tied monthly city and state record; Earliest 95° temperature in New England***
Islip: 84° (old record: 73°, 1977, 2002, and 2022)
Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 79°, 2014)
Mount Pocono, PA: 84° (old record: 82°, 1941)
New York City-Central Park: 91° (old record: 85°, 1941) ***Earliest 2 consecutive 90° days***
New York City-JFK Airport: 82° (old record: 78°, 1949)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 89° (old record: 84°, 1941)
Newark: 93° (old record: 88°, 1941 and 2022) ***Earliest 93° or above reading on record***
Portland: 79° (old record: 77°, 1941)
Poughkeepsie: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941)
Providence: 87° (old record: 83°, 1945)
Scranton: 91° (old record: 84°, 1968) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***
Syracuse: 86° (old record: 83°, 1968)
Worcester: 90° (old record: 79°, 1938) ***Earliest 90° reading on record***

Cooler weather will follow. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.047 today.

On April 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.004 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.5° (3.8° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

Very impressive, Don. I noticed Bradford, PA reached 86F / 30C at over 2100 feet of elevation, setting a new monthly record (after tying the record of 85 yesterday which was set last year and twice in 1990). There are many years in Bradford where the thermometer has failed to reach 86F / 30C over the entire year. If that had mixed down to the surface, I think we would have been looking at widespread low to mid 90s in the lowlands, with maybe upper 90s in the urban corridor.

As an aside, I feel it weird many people say urban heat island effect is responsible for all or part of the warming trend. To me, anyways, it feels like the remote forested mountain locations like Bradford, Pa. are warming faster than anywhere else in recent years. Just not seeing much evidence of an urbanization effect on the trend.

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Wow-Williamsport, PA too. Although it wouldn’t be too surprising with so many other places reaching 90. It’s another spot that roasts on these westerly flow downslope days especially early in the season before full leaf out. 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

87 here today. No 90s in this stretch, but impressive heat for mid April. Some years we don’t get this hot until July. 

It’s actually “easier” to heat up at this time of the year before the trees fully leaf out. Less shade and less humidity from transpiration. Add in the westerly flow here vs so many SW or S flow driven heat events in the summer and not too surprising this heat overperformed. Models also underplay temps so often this time of year because they don’t factor the lack of transpiration (unless recent upgrades took this into consideration more). 

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive, Don. I noticed Bradford, PA reached 86F / 30C at over 2100 feet of elevation, setting a new monthly record (after tying the record of 85 yesterday which was set last year and twice in 1990). There are many years in Bradford where the thermometer has failed to reach 86F / 30C over the entire year. If that had mixed down to the surface, I think we would have been looking at widespread low to mid 90s in the lowlands, with maybe upper 90s in the urban corridor.

As an aside, I feel it weird many people say urban heat island effect is responsible for all or part of the warming trend. To me, anyways, it feels like the remote forested mountain locations like Bradford, Pa. are warming faster than anywhere else in recent years. Just not seeing much evidence of an urbanization effect on the trend.

In the big cities, UHI and climate change amplify the warmth. But in cities like New York that have a mature urban footprint, climate change is responsible for most of the recent warming.

Today’s heat was made 1.5-4 times more likely due to climate change based on Climate Central’s instant attribution algorithm. Globally, there’s little doubt that climate change is responsible for most of the observed warming.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

In the big cities, UHI and climate change amplify the warmth. But in cities like New York that have a mature urban footprint, climate change is responsible for most of the recent warming.

Today’s heat was made 1.4-4 times more likely due to climate change based on Climate Central’s instant attribution algorithm. Globally, there’s little doubt that climate change is responsible for most of the observed warming.

Interesting, I decided to take a look at this phenomenon with an open mind and selected three remote, rural towns in the mountains mostly surrounded by state and national forest and parkland. And compared them to the records at nearby Pittsburgh. Can't find any evidence of an urban heat island amplifying the warming at Pittsburgh. If anything, as I surmised, the rural locations look to be warming slightly faster.

Here is the comparison. All since 1958, except for DuBois [where records extend only to 1963]. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree, I found Bradford to be warming at 5.6F per century; Elkins warming at 5.7F per century; Pittsburgh warming at 5.1F per century; and DuBois warming at 4.4F per century.

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting, I decided to take a look at this phenomenon with an open mind and selected three remote, rural towns in the mountains mostly surrounded by state and national forest and parkland. And compared them to the records at nearby Pittsburgh. Can't find any evidence of an urban heat island amplifying the warming at Pittsburgh. If anything, as I surmised, the rural locations look to be warming slightly faster.

Here is the comparison. All since 1958, except for DuBois [where records extend only to 1963]. Rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree, I found Bradford to be warming at 5.6F per century; Elkins warming at 5.7F per century; Pittsburgh warming at 5.1F per century; and DuBois warming at 4.4F per century.

 

 

 

 

Good charts. It's mostly climate change. I've added Climate Central's instant attribution maps to my above comment.