April 2023

[Picard]

Mid-winter dewpoints tonight.  Temps will drop fast in some areas.  Maybe I'll see my last sub-30 night of the season.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Here's a chart for counties served by the Mt Holly Forecast Office, recent uptick for sure especially for the immediate Philly metro area. Current with yesterday's 5 tornadoes.

This is for overall yearly tornadoes right, not just for April?

Thanks for posting this-- I see my county in NE PA included here!

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Picard said:

Mid-winter dewpoints tonight.  Temps will drop fast in some areas.  Maybe I'll see my last sub-30 night of the season.

Hopefully we get this in the summer too, I love dry air.

[LoboLeader1]

28F here as of 5AM. 

[lee59]

upper 20s here this morning.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, lee59 said:

upper 20s here this morning.

Looks like JFK was at 33 degrees at 6 AM....I wonder if they hit 32 earlier?

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like JFK was at 33 degrees at 6 AM....I wonder if they hit 32 earlier?

Low of 33

[jm1220]

27 here. Maybe my last sub-30 morning? 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    58degs.(49/67) or +8.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today:    55-58, wind s., p. sunny, 50 tomorrow AM.

42*(47%RH) here at 7am{was 41 at 5am}.   44* at 8am.      45* at 9am.     46* at 10am.      48* at Noon.       50* at 2pm.      51* at 6pm.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Low of 33

ugh well that's annoying, like a 19 inch snowstorm or a 99 degree high or a 1 degree low lol

Probably got down to 32 on the south shore of Nassau though

 

[Picard]

Walpack, NJ low of 19.  For folks who may not know - Walpack has rather unique geography, and sits in sort of a wide open bowl out in the boondocks of western Sussex County at an elevation of roughly 400 feet between two high ridges.  No one lives there that I'm aware of, but Rutgers/Nick Stefano maintain a station out there.  

It can have impressive lows, and even sometimes highs.  There have been a couple of instances in the past where the station records both the state high and state low temperature in the same 24-hour period.

It's a fun bike ride or drive out through that area.  Just don't expect much in the way of cell service or modern conveniences, aside from maybe the Walpack Inn which is nearby.

[BucksCO_PA]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is for overall yearly tornadoes right, not just for April?

Thanks for posting this-- I see my county in NE PA included here!

 

Overall totals for all months

[Volcanic Winter]

Hit 26 for a low, impressive. 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Picard said:

Walpack, NJ low of 19.  For folks who may not know - Walpack has rather unique geography, and sits in sort of a wide open bowl out in the boondocks of western Sussex County at an elevation of roughly 400 feet between two high ridges.  No one lives there that I'm aware of, but Rutgers/Nick Stefano maintain a station out there.  

It can have impressive lows, and even sometimes highs.  There have been a couple of instances in the past where the station records both the state high and state low temperature in the same 24-hour period.

It's a fun bike ride or drive out through that area.  Just don't expect much in the way of cell service or modern conveniences, aside from maybe the Walpack Inn which is nearby.

wow the diurnal departures there must be impressive-- the highest in the area?

[Picard]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the diurnal departures there must be impressive-- the highest in the area?

Yes.  Several years back, in April the station once recorded a daily low of 27 and high of 80.

It's already up to 41 from the low of 19.  I expect they'll get to 60 later, and maybe more.

Link to the NJ stations:  Walpack is in the northwestern part of the state.

https://www.njweather.org/maps/mapviewer?mapname=temperature

[MANDA]

Here are a few pictures of the Walpack location.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Picard said:

Yes.  Several years back, in April the station once recorded a daily low of 27 and high of 80.

It's already up to 41 from the low of 19.  I expect they'll get to 60 later, and maybe more.

Link to the NJ stations:  Walpack is in the northwestern part of the state.

https://www.njweather.org/maps/mapviewer?mapname=temperature

It sounds like it could challenge some of the extreme diurnal ranges at Toms River or Westhampton!

 

[winterwx21]

20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 50 after a low of 40 and off yesterdays 76 degrees.  More 70s by Tuesday - Thu but it looks wet by mid week.

Wednesday might not be as warm due to east winds, but low 70s tomorrow and I still think we have a chance of seeing 80 degrees on thursday if the t-storms can hold off until later afternoon rather than midday. Dewpoints will likely spike to the low 60s thursday too ... it will be a summery day. 

[BucksCO_PA]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It sounds like it could challenge some of the extreme diurnal ranges at Toms River or Westhampton!

 

5/21/1992:

Indian Mills, NJ

High 88 / Low 28

Millville, NJ

High 82 / Low 30

ACY (Pomona, NJ)

high 84 / Low 28

[bluewave]

This was the deepest trough from December to March over California since the 1970s. A bit of a departure from recent years with the record ridge that was in place. The years with the lowest heights are below. Got a stronger SE Ridge this year than composite. So the record warm pool over the the Gulf Stream helped boost the SE Ridge and displace the 50/50 low even with strong blocking intervals.

2023 5591

1998 5597

1979 5598

1975 5595

1973 5586

1969 5564

1949 5558

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Btw my January minimum temp was 22.4, while my March minimum was 23. Dec and Feb 7 and 8 respectively (which were of course one offs). Had a colder minimum in Nov than Jan, 19 degrees. 
 

Just a ghastly winter, I’m still befuddled by it. If next winter isn’t better I’m not moving to the north part of the forum, I’m moving to Thule. Satellites will catch pics of me with my legs dangling off the edge of a glacier. 

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Btw my January minimum temp was 22.4, while my March minimum was 23. Dec and Feb 7 and 8 respectively (which were of course one offs). Had a colder minimum in Nov than Jan, 19 degrees. 
 

Just a ghastly winter, I’m still befuddled by it. If next winter isn’t better I’m not moving to the north part of the forum, I’m moving to Thule. Satellites will catch pics of me with my legs dangling off the edge of a glacier. 

As long as we have that crazy warm water off the East Coast we may have issues....clearly contributed to this winter's bust of the great blocking patterns we had in Dec and March.

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

As long as we have that crazy warm water off the East Coast we may have issues....clearly contributed to this winter's bust of the great blocking patterns we had in Dec and March.

Hopefully we can get a Nino next winter that can check the -PNA. That was the culprit more than anything. When we constantly have a trough diving into San Diego, it’s lights out for us. That forces a response from the SE ridge. And we want some SE ridge to keep the pattern from going suppressed in a Nino. 

[Volcanic Winter]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully we can get a Nino next winter that can check the -PNA. That was the culprit more than anything. When we constantly have a trough diving into San Diego, it’s lights out for us. That forces a response from the SE ridge. And we want some SE ridge to keep the pattern from going suppressed in a Nino. 

I have to mention @psuhoffman because he demonstrated with clear data on the M/A forum how in the 20th century we snowed frequently in the previous -PDO cycle with a predominantly negative PNA. In order to accomplish that we needed -NAO blocking (basically a favorable Atlantic) that would overcome a hostile Pacific and produce snow, and it did. Granted there will be some differences between the DC area where he focuses and NYC, of course. But the general theme was pretty clear that the PNA wasn’t historically a death knell for east coast winters, and it’s concerning that it’s beginning to be. 
 

I think logically a chunk of that is temperature climo, we’re warming and missing borderline events that may have been mild to moderate events in colder decades. That’s just my thoughts on it, not his. It’s probably more complicated. 

But I found his presentations and analyses compelling and grounded in observable fact. It’s more the conclusions that are open to interpretation. Hopefully it’s just “bad luck” worsened by decadal warming. 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I have to mention @psuhoffman because he demonstrated with clear data on the M/A forum how in the 20th century we snowed frequently in the previous -PDO cycle with a predominantly negative PNA. In order to accomplish that we needed -NAO blocking (basically a favorable Atlantic) that would overcome a hostile Pacific and produce snow, and it did. Granted there will be some differences between the DC area where he focuses and NYC, of course. But the general theme was pretty clear that the PNA wasn’t historically a death knell for east coast winters, and it’s concerning that it’s beginning to be. 
 

I think logically a chunk of that is temperature climo, we’re warming and missing borderline events that may have been mild to moderate events in colder decades. That’s just my thoughts on it, not his. It’s probably more complicated. 

But I found his presentations and analyses compelling and grounded in observable fact. It’s more the conclusions that are open to interpretation. Hopefully it’s just “bad luck” worsened by decadal warming. 

We were destined/doomed to regress back to our long term average after the bonanza seasons since 2000. It would be more stunning if we didn’t. We’ve had awful stretches here before- most of the 1980s, late 1990s etc. We’re probably entering one of those. If there’s some more “permanent” state where we won’t see snow vs we otherwise would, I’d give it several more winters at least before calling it. This winter was just horrendously bad in all sorts of ways that hopefully won’t repeat anytime soon. The PNA was as hostile as it’s been in several decades as Bluewave pointed out. If we’re entering a long term -PDO state, we will have lousy winters more often than not. The warm waters off the SE certainly pumped the ridge somewhat but I see it as more of a response to the awful PNA. 

I do see the climate shifting eventually to a point where it’s just too warm to snow here often but it’s probably a few decades away at our latitude. 2021-22 was decent to good for the eastern half of LI and 2020-21 was a very good winter for many of us. There are more ways to get a snowy pattern here than DC, which unfortunately for them the warming Atlantic doesn’t help since they don’t really benefit from more Miller B type lows. Maybe if this Nino happens it can be a test for them since that favors earlier developing Miller As from the Gulf. 

[Gravity Wave]

52 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I have to mention @psuhoffman because he demonstrated with clear data on the M/A forum how in the 20th century we snowed frequently in the previous -PDO cycle with a predominantly negative PNA. In order to accomplish that we needed -NAO blocking (basically a favorable Atlantic) that would overcome a hostile Pacific and produce snow, and it did. Granted there will be some differences between the DC area where he focuses and NYC, of course. But the general theme was pretty clear that the PNA wasn’t historically a death knell for east coast winters, and it’s concerning that it’s beginning to be. 
 

I think logically a chunk of that is temperature climo, we’re warming and missing borderline events that may have been mild to moderate events in colder decades. That’s just my thoughts on it, not his. It’s probably more complicated. 

But I found his presentations and analyses compelling and grounded in observable fact. It’s more the conclusions that are open to interpretation. Hopefully it’s just “bad luck” worsened by decadal warming. 

Given how historically awful the PNA was this year I think it's too early to draw conclusions that we need a favorable Pacific to get any snow. Every trough dug down to Baja and then got stuck indefinitely, it was completely absurd.

[Stormlover74]

One of the four confirmed tornadoes that struck New Jersey Saturday night was classified as a strong EF-2 twister packing top winds as high as 130 mph — and another was an EF-2 with winds up to 120 mph, the National Weather Service said Monday after analyzing the damage.

The stronger EF-2 tornado — the third of six intensity levels on the Enhanced Fujita scale used by the weather service to measure tornado strength — touched down in Jackson Township in Ocean County at 7:24 p.m. Saturday and remained on the ground for three minutes, swirling across a path 2.1 miles long, the weather service said in a preliminary storm report.And another one

 

[MANDA]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

One of the four confirmed tornadoes that struck New Jersey Saturday night was classified as a strong EF-2 twister packing top winds as high as 130 mph — and another was an EF-2 with winds up to 120 mph, the National Weather Service said Monday after analyzing the damage.

The stronger EF-2 tornado — the third of six intensity levels on the Enhanced Fujita scale used by the weather service to measure tornado strength — touched down in Jackson Township in Ocean County at 7:24 p.m. Saturday and remained on the ground for three minutes, swirling across a path 2.1 miles long, the weather service said in a preliminary storm report.And another one

 

Outside of this sub forum but there was an EF3 in Delaware with 140 mph winds.  Not just tornadoes but strong ones!  Winds to 120-140 mph are impressive for these parts.  Used to be maybe we would get an EF0 or maybe a EF1 here and there but this outbreak was very significant.

[SACRUS]

Records

 

Highs:

EWR: 81 (1967)
NYC: 81 (1981)
LGA: 79 (1967)

Lows:

 

EWR: 24 (1954)
NYC: 24 (1954)
LGA: 25 (1954)

 

Historical:

 

 

1955 - Record snows fell in north central Wyoming and south central Montana. Billings MT received a storm total of 42.3 inches, and on the 4th reported a record snow depth of 35 inches. Sheridan WY established a 24 hour snowfall record of 26.7 inches. (2nd-4th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1964: KAUZ in Wichita Falls, Texas broadcast the first live television pictures of an F5 tornado moving through the city. Seven people were killed, 111 injured and 225 homes were destroyed during the twisters 5 to a 6-mile path. Extensive damage was done at Sheppard Air Force Base where three tanker planes, a hanger, the power plant, and the chapel were all destroyed. Damage estimates exceeded $15 million. 

1974 - A "Super-Outbreak" of tornadoes ravaged the Midwest and the eastern U.S. Severe weather erupted early in the afternoon and continued through the next day. Severe thunderstorms spawned 148 tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan, most of which occurred between 1 PM (CST) on the 3rd and 1 AM on the 4th. The tornadoes killed 315 persons, injured 5300 others, and caused 600 million dollars damage. Alabama, Kentucky and Ohio were especially hard hit in the tornado outbreak. One tornado destroyed half of the town of Xenia OH killing 34 persons. Another tornado, near the town of Stamping Ground KY, produced a path of destruction a record five miles in width. A tornado raced through Guin AL at a speed of 75 mph. Two powerful tornadoes roared across northern Alabama during the early evening hours, killing fifty persons and injuring 500 others. Some rescue vehicles responding to the first tornado were

1987 - A storm in the southeastern U.S. produced a trace of snow at Mobile, AL, one inch at Jackson MS, and two inches at Meridian MS, the latest snow of record for those three locations. Birmingham AL received seven inches of snow, and up to nine inches was reported in northeast Alabama. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A wind gust to 114 mph was clocked at Ann Arbor, MI, during a tornadic thunderstorm. Thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana spawned five tornadoes that Easter Sunday, and also produced golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains to the southern and central Appalachians. The thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, including one which caused eight million dollars damage at Fort Branch IN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Rain and snow prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with snow reported in New York State. Boston MA was soaked with 2.91 inches of rain during the day and night, and up to half a foot of snow blanketed the hills of Steuben County NY that Tuesday night. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - An EF-1 tornado knocks down numerous tress and powerlines, destroys homes in Leawood and Cammack Village and passes directly over the Little Rock National Weather Service office. Six tornados were confirmed in central Arkansas, but no fatalities were reported.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be even warmer than today. Readings will soar well into the 60s across the region.

Overall, the first week of April will likely turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance brings a brief shot of the cooler air into the East for the second week of April, but the EPS weeklies have backed off on the cold.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -7.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today.

On April 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.706 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.452 (RMM).