April 2023

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Well there you go… I think @SnoSki14got this one right!

[SnoSki14]

Just now, allgame830 said:

I don’t think there’s hype at all… even when the storms were over western PA they looked pretty much run of the mill but still were producing winds gusts 65-75mph. 

I think lapse rates will make up for the so-so instability. You're not going to get summer CAPE in early April

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

I don’t think there’s hype at all… even when the storms were over western PA they looked pretty much run of the mill but still were producing winds gusts 65-75mph. 

That line doesn’t look that impressive as of now 

[allgame830]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I think lapse rates will make up for the so-so instability. You're not going to get summer CAPE in early April

Agreed. I think the major threat is for widespread wind damage.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That line doesn’t look that impressive as of now 

And the line looked pretty meh in western PA and still produced those high wind gusts 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That line doesn’t look that impressive as of now 

The line in eastern PA is strengthening. I think we'll get some strong gusts with it, possibly severe. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Looks like some rotation in the discrete cell down in the Delmarva. Broad at this point. 

[Tatamy]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the cell arriving now.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds gave way to brilliant sunshine this afternoon. In response, the mercury rose into the lower 70s in many parts of the region. However, coastal areas remained locked in the upper 50s and lower 60s on account of a sea breeze.

A strong cold front will plow across this evening. The frontal passage could touch off some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Beyond the front, noticeably cooler but not exceptionally cold air will overspread the region. The chill will be short-lived.

Overall, the first week of April will likely turn out warmer than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will remain confined largely to western and central North America. Some of the guidance now brings the cooler air into the East for the second week of April, but considerable uncertainty exists. In terms of the month as a whole, it is somewhat more likely than not that April will wind up on the warm side of normal.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -13.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.474 today.

On March 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.502 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.573 (RMM).

 

[psv88]

91 here in Naples, FL

[HailMan06]

74 here in El Pangui, Ecuador

[HailMan06]

You guys will probably get slammed since I’m not around.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Looks like some rotation in the discrete cell down in the Delmarva. Broad at this point. 

 

[Rtd208]

Philly storm magnet is full force.

[MANDA]

Line intensifying as it comes east.  Light T-shower here but line intensifying just to my east as it moves east.  See how long this trend continues.  Radar looking especially robust for SW  NJ over the next 60-90 min.

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Looks like a stronger couplet on the cell right now. 
 

Edit: Weakened next frame. 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Philly storm magnet is full force.

South NJ severe capital of the Northeast 

[allgame830]

Eerily calm winds now from breezy conditions earlier.

[Rtd208]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning here now.

[Snowlover11]

not much here, quick burst of rain with 15-20 mph winds.

[Volcanic Winter]

Ugh, the part of the line headed towards me is ugly.

Really hoping this weakens as it nears the ocean, as they often do. 

[Allsnow]

Looks rather meh for the metro. Snj ftw 

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, bkviking said:

Yeah my bad. The severe weather moments are flickering moments and every outlook is usually more hope than reality. 
June 2010. August 2014. November 2022. That’s of top of mind.  Our marine layer makes LI a severe storm wasteland most times. 

Summer of 2019 I believe had some strong storms out here

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks rather meh for the metro. Snj ftw 

A quick shower is all I’m expecting in SW Suffolk. 

[Snowlover11]

southern nj, looks to get whacked, that line looks ugly 

[MANDA]

Tornado Warned storm heading towards Trenton metro.  Tornado Warning issued.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Tornado Warned storm heading towards Trenton metro.  Tornado Warning issued.

The new Tornado alley of the northeast 

[Intensewind002]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

South NJ severe capital of the Northeast 

Yeah that area and the region around Albany and west Mass usually get good storms every year

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Summer of 2019 I believe had some strong storms out here

During one of those we had perhaps the most intense thunderstorm I can ever remember. Thunder so loud it sounded like Tunguska style airburst meteor strikes. 
 

I managed to capture the worst thunderclap I’ve ever witnessed from that storm on my phone while recording, you see me fumble with and almost drop my phone it startled me so severely. It was so loud it actually hurt my ears. I’ll have to find and post that short vid. 
 

When thunder strikes are immediately overhead and extremely intense they take on a completely different audible quality. I’ve only heard it a few times in my life, but this was by far the worst. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

During one of those we had perhaps the most intense thunderstorm I can ever remember. Thunder so loud it sounded like Tunguska style airburst meteor strikes. 
 

I managed to capture the worst thunderclap I’ve ever witnessed from that storm on my phone while recording, you see me fumble with and almost drop my phone it startled me so severely. It was so loud it actually hurt my ears. I’ll have to find and post that short vid. 

it's why I hate thunder and lightning so much lol