April 2023

[bkviking]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 

Yeah my bad. The severe weather moments are flickering moments and every outlook is usually more hope than reality. 
June 2010. August 2014. November 2022. That’s of top of mind.  Our marine layer makes LI a severe storm wasteland most times. 

[Cfa]

Finally clearing out here. Temp is 57.

[Gravity Wave]

14 minutes ago, bkviking said:

CPC has us warmer than normal. Not sure that means much anymore. But above normal precip - which tends to be an El Niño symptom for our area. Anecdotally, incoming El Niños have been nasty summers. Summer 2009 is one that sticks in mind as such a nightmare. But I’m sure others can offer the true statistics on these. 

2009 is my favorite summer of all time lol.

[snywx]

20 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

73/53, the dew has been steadily dropping under bright sunny skies

72/53 here 

not a cloud in the sky 

[allgame830]

11 minutes ago, snywx said:

72/53 here 

not a cloud in the sky 

Beautiful afternoon! 69/56 here. Let’s see what comes of it in a few hours.

[Rjay]

Clear and 61 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy how persistent this pattern has been….

 

 

Yeah, this SST profile keeps pumping the SE Ridge.
 

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

68 and sunny here-feels great

[IrishRob17]

35 minutes ago, snywx said:

72/53 here 

not a cloud in the sky 

72/49 with scattered clouds moving in now. 

[Allsnow]

Beautiful outside. I don’t buy the severe hype. Radar looks rather meh 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Beautiful outside. I don’t buy the severe hype. Radar looks rather meh 

Odd that we're in an enhanced risk but they're not issuing a watch

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Odd that we're in an enhanced risk but they're not issuing a watch

Very windy out…never a good sign for significant storms near the coast 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Beautiful outside. I don’t buy the severe hype. Radar looks rather meh 

I disagree. I think we're going to see major ignition over the next hour 

[SACRUS]

First seventies since Feb 15/16 for NYC/EWR

First for LGA since Nov 7th

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Odd that we're in an enhanced risk but they're not issuing a watch

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
   Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

   Valid 012037Z - 012230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
   eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
   possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
   Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
   large hail by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
   rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
   wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
   moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
   continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
   rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. 

   Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
   activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
   storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
   and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
   and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
   coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
   increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
   tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
   activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
   southern NY and New England.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this SST profile keeps pumping the SE Ridge.
 

 

 

 

 

This is why I don’t share the optimism many have for a Niño next winter. It’s totally possible I’m completely wrong and we have a kickass snow season finally, but I really feel like we’re going to struggle with warmth again. Domestic cold has been tough for us lately, we need that arctic pipeline in place. 
 

I haven’t touched on it much but several climatologists I follow have mentioned as far back as last year how they expect the next Niño to surge us globally over 1.5C, and now that’s even likelier due to the unfortunate, unexpected warmth forcing of Hunga Tonga. 
 

Prior to the recent papers that came out about that I tried to remain optimistic the ash and sulfur aerosol, though not as much as it should’ve been, would offset the warming caused by the water vapor flux. But the latest papers on this topic suggest that won’t be the case and will contribute to a strong warming push the next few years. 
 

Can’t extrapolate that down to regional conditions and yes we could still have a kickass winter despite with good teleconnections, but I’m concerned we’re going to be even torchier than normal. And if the N Atlantic is still on fire, perhaps even a Niño won’t temper the dreaded SER. 
 

Hoping to be 100% dead wrong. 
 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
   Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

   Valid 012037Z - 012230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
   eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
   possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
   Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
   large hail by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
   rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
   wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
   moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
   continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
   rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. 

   Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
   activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
   storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
   and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
   and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
   coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
   increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
   tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
   activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
   southern NY and New England.

 

But they haven't extended that east yet

Usually they're indicate the percentage of watch being issued

[SACRUS]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But they haven't extended that east yet

No and the dewpts are dropping. Currently 41 at KSWF. It was at 57 at 1pm when the wind shifted more westerly.

edit, the humidity was at 78% now it’s 41%.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

No and the dewpts are dropping. Currently 41 at KSWF. It was at 57 at 1pm when the wind shifted more westerly.

edit, the humidity was at 78% now it’s 41%.

And there it is, Watch issued LOL

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very windy out…never a good sign for significant storms near the coast 

I consider it a win if there’s more than a dying thundershower here from these lines coming from the west. They collapse immediately when hitting the marine layer east of the city. And this time of year that effect is even greater. 

[donsutherland1]

[Allsnow]

Nothing for jersey….

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nothing for jersey….

I wonder if they're contemplating a tornado watch. Lapse rates are ridiculous right now 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Nothing for jersey….

For me not you lol

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if they're contemplating a tornado watch. Lapse rates are ridiculous right now 

Seems like that would've come first

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

For me not you lol

Very odd….perhaps MT holly not buying into the twitter hype 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Very odd….perhaps MT holly not buying into the twitter hype 

But they don't issue the watch do they?

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if they're contemplating a tornado watch. Lapse rates are ridiculous right now 

 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very odd….perhaps MT holly not buying into the twitter hype 

I don’t think there’s hype at all… even when the storms were over western PA they looked pretty much run of the mill but still were producing winds gusts 65-75mph.