Rtd208 Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 The warmer weather is upon us. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Could be dare I say some inland 80 plus highs late next week if ensembles are right and it’s not showery or overcast. That second part is a big if now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Could be dare I say some inland 80 plus highs late next week if ensembles are right and it’s not showery or overcast. That second part is a big if now Absolutely. If the ensembles are correct, that’s easily 80+ in April with downsloping westerly flow, as long as we get sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here? We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far. Below normal months are getting so rare. Even if they are below normal it is barely below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here? We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far. Below normal months are getting so rare. Even if they are below normal it is barely below. as long as we get rid of the gloomy rainy days I'm utterly fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Absolutely. If the ensembles are correct, that’s easily 80+ in April with downsloping westerly flow, as long as we get sunshine you know that's my absolutely favorite kind of weather in the spring and summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 April 1st forecast high temperature for NYC: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: April 1st forecast high temperature for NYC: The trends are great for playing baseball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The trends are great for playing baseball! They are. Let’s hope the showers hold off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 5 hours ago, MANDA said: Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here? We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far. Below normal months are getting so rare. Even if they are below normal it is barely below. And that’s even with the newer 1991-2020 averages, we still can rarely manage a below normal month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 5 hours ago, MANDA said: Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here? We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far. Below normal months are getting so rare. Even if they are below normal it is barely below. If we get a decent El Niño it’s highly likely October will average below normal but even summers can be below normal during El Niño here so don’t be shocked if one of June July august is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: If we get a decent El Niño it’s highly likely October will average below normal but even summers can be below normal during El Niño here so don’t be shocked if one of June July august is Hopefully it's like 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 April 1 forecast trends for NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 No changes to the weekly Drought Monitor for this sub forum but expansion over the Northeast sector as a whole. Even moderate drought showing up over parts of Southeast Maryland. Pattern has remained very consistent since Fall. Additional parts of this sub forum (parts of L.I. have been there for months) could easily pop into the abnormally dry category if we don't see some meaningful rainfall over the next 1-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 On 3/27/2023 at 9:15 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Could be dare I say some inland 80 plus highs late next week if ensembles are right and it’s not showery or overcast. That second part is a big if now Next week continues to look very warm. High temps well into the 70s tuesday through thursday, and wouldn't be surprised to see 80 degrees as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 The guidance remains locked on the warm start to April. Even greater warmth is likely later in the first week of April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 hours ago, MANDA said: No changes to the weekly Drought Monitor for this sub forum but expansion over the Northeast sector as a whole. Even moderate drought showing up over parts of Southeast Maryland. Pattern has remained very consistent since Fall. Additional parts of this sub forum (parts of L.I. have been there for months) could easily pop into the abnormally dry category if we don't see some meaningful rainfall over the next 1-3 weeks. If we have another quiet summer with little tropical activity and it’s hot (quite possible if we’re going into a Nino) that will expand. The typical south shore drought season puts that area in moderate drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: If we have another quiet summer with little tropical activity and it’s hot (quite possible if we’re going into a Nino) that will expand. The typical south shore drought season puts that area in moderate drought. 2002 possible analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 ECMWF weeklies for April 3-10: April gets off to a warm start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: ECMWF weeklies for April 3-10: April gets off to a warm start. Persistence since start of winter.... incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection. wow they have severe weather right over this area, which rarely ever happens. I think it was November a couple of years ago we had a tornado here. My power was out for 4 hours and it felt really cold lol. I can't remember the exact number but Long Island had around 8 tornadoes that day, the most for one day, and in November lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Persistence since start of winter.... incredible. persistence seems to work a lot better when it's cold west / warm east than it does for warm west / cold east ..... I wonder why that is? Especially true during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in!. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 49 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in! . OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Final 4/1 NBM forecast for NYC: 70° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 2 hours ago, wilsonvoid1 said: wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in! . 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter. Can I see a storm happening, Yes. Snow? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in!.It’s over let it go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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