Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sure Chuck would be glad to explain it to you. 

Yeah I'm on all hours. Our last stronger Nino/-QBO was 09-10. weak Nino/-QBO was 14-15, but I'm excited because I think we are in some kind of long term -NAO phase since year 2000, making analogs like 91-92 and 86-87 have less weight, although these are the 3 stronger Nino's/-QBO's on record since 1979. Last Winter of course was opposite, stronger Nina/+QBO. We have had other bad Winter's with Nina/+QBO since year 2000 too. 

I think PSUhoffman understands the that the southern jet stream has/is lifting north.. It might be hard to go the Winter without having warmer/rebounding times too. I'm moderately excited though, the STJ wet macro pattern seems to be the pattern (bigger but fewer storms).  Just envision storms in the subtropical jet moving into what could be a constant +PNA/GOA low. Could be a I-95 and point NW kind of Winter. Everyone is scared of east-based Nino, but I think that only strengthens the -NOI which is not a bad pattern. (None of the Nino/-QBO's were in an east-based Nino so far (82-83 and 97-98 were not -QBO)).

[stormy]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah I'm on all hours. Our last stronger Nino/-QBO was 09-10. weak Nino/-QBO was 14-15, but I'm excited because I think we are in some kind of long term -NAO phase since year 2000, making analogs like 91-92 and 86-87 have less weight, although these are the 3 stronger Nino's/-QBO's on record since 1979. Last Winter of course was opposite, stronger Nina/+QBO. We have had other bad Winter's with Nina/+QBO since year 2000 too. 

I think PSUhoffman understands the that the southern jet stream has/is lifting north.. It might be hard to go the Winter without having warmer/rebounding times too. I'm moderately excited though, the STJ wet macro pattern seems to be the pattern (bigger but fewer storms).  Just envision storms in the subtropical jet moving into what could be a constant +PNA/GOA low. Could be a I-95 and point NW kind of Winter. Everyone is scared of east-based Nino, but I think that only strengthens the -NOI which is not a bad pattern. (None of the Nino/-QBO's were in an east-based Nino so far (82-83 and 97-98 were not -QBO)).

Thanks Chuck!

I am happy to see that you have no fear of an east based Nino, especially since PSU says that you "would be right 80%"

I have reviewed the last 7 Nino's back to 2003.  I notice an interesting 20 year pattern at my recording location. 4 out of 7 have given above normal snowfall with a positive anomaly of +1.35. The 3 winters with below normal snowfall had a weaker positive anomaly  of only +.66.  The strongest anomaly at +2.50 still gave nearly 2 inches above my 24" average.

With a CPC 80% probability of +1.00 or greater and 50% of +1.50 or greater, that bodes well for the coming winter according to the past 20 year pattern. If the CPC is correct with their Enso predictions it would be reasonable to expect a winter of above normal snowfall. That is my prediction with a 90% level of confidence, conditioned on an anomaly that exceeds +1.00.  If the anomaly is less than  +.70, I predict below normal snowfall. This is my prediction for Augusta County, not D.C..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, the sample size is too small. 2/4 Strong Nino's have give us major blizzards, and 2/4 Strong Nino's have given us nothing. The cross-country ridge that is the ruling pattern in Strong Nino as per analog examples, doesn't really match if you think about it: What makes the 2nd wave in a Pacific-> Atlantic jet stream more broad? Different patterns at different times.. I'm saying that since the year 2000 something in the jet has slowed down and there is a gravity off the coast, as long as we don't have a ruling NPH (north pacific high).

[stormy]

On 7/11/2023 at 4:12 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, the sample size is too small. 2/4 Strong Nino's have give us major blizzards, and 2/4 Strong Nino's have given us nothing. The cross-country ridge that is the ruling pattern in Strong Nino as per analog examples, doesn't really match if you think about it: What makes the 2nd wave in a Pacific-> Atlantic jet stream more broad? Different patterns at different times.. I'm saying that since the year 2000 something in the jet has slowed down and there is a gravity off the coast, as long as we don't have a ruling NPH (north pacific high).

I have expanded the dataset from 20 to 43 years.

7 El Ninos from 1980 to 1998 again found 4 out of 7 had above normal snowfall with an average anamoly of +1.55. The 3 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +1.1.

Therefore, during the 43 year period from 1980 - 2023, 8 out of 14 El Ninos had above normal snowfall with an average anomaly of +1.45. The 6 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +.85.

Exceptions can almost always be found. In this study, the one exception was  1991-92 with only 3.25 inches of snow but an anomaly of + 1.7. What other factor overwhelmed El Nino that winter??

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I have expanded the dataset from 20 to 43 years.

7 El Ninos from 1980 to 1998 again found 4 out of 7 had above normal snowfall with an average anamoly of +1.55. The 3 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +1.1.

Therefore, during the 43 year period from 1980 - 2023, 8 out of 14 El Ninos had above normal snowfall with an average anomaly of +1.45. The 6 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +.85.

Exceptions can almost always be found. In this study, the one exception was  1991-92 with only 3.25 inches of snow but an anomaly of + 1.7. What other factor overwhelmed El Nino that winter??

91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points)

I think the strong +AO killed that winter. 

Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good question about 91-92, I would say something about the sun, but that might not be completely true. It was at the peak of +NAO decadal time with +PDO, and 7/8 years were +ENSO in that mix, so all these positive indexes may have given more tendency for +AO. That's why I say different patterns at different times.. 94-95 was a lot like 91-92. I don't have all the answers about 91-92. 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points)

I think the strong +AO killed that winter. 

Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. 
 

let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. 
 

let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice. 

You roll the dice. And WIN BIG, DAY AFTER TOMORROW, BIG! This will be a brobdingnagian snow winter for the entire East Coast Region! This will be a strong Nino, packed with torrential snows for ALL!

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. 
 

let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice. 

Yeah I have mixed feelings. As much as I want a big winter here to break the pattern, ninos are really hit and miss here. Basically half really deliver, and half give us nothing. 

[WxUSAF]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points)

I think the strong +AO killed that winter. 

Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?

Pinatubo was very much the cause of that +AO. 
 

I think the very high stratospheric water vapor levels from the HTHH eruption are a potential big wild card for this coming winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Pinatubo was very much the cause of that +AO. 
 

I think the very high stratospheric water vapor levels from the HTHH eruption are a potential big wild card for this coming winter. 

One year wasn't enough time for that vapor to get into the air past winter? I mean that was Jan 2022...unless water vapor is slower/lingers longer than ash and such? (There a measure if how much of the water vapor is currently lingering?)

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I have mixed feelings. As much as I want a big winter here to break the pattern, ninos are really hit and miss here. Basically half really deliver, and half give us nothing. 

I just want some reason to feel optimistic. If it doesn't pan out, then whatever, but at least we can go into the fall dreaming of a mashed potato Christmas morning.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

One year wasn't enough time for that vapor to get into the air past winter? I mean that was Jan 2022...unless water vapor is slower/lingers longer than ash and such? (There a measure if how much of the water vapor is currently lingering?)

Stratospheric circulation is slow and cross-equatorial mixing is even slower.  So there wasn’t significant water vapor in the norther hemisphere when the winter PV was established. That’s changed now.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Stratospheric circulation is slow and cross-equatorial mixing is even slower.  So there wasn’t significant water vapor in the norther hemisphere when the winter PV was established. That’s changed now.

 

 

Dag nabbit...I can't imagine this being anything that helps, smh Hopefully it won't be an effect at all, but we'll see...

[Its a Breeze]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

One year wasn't enough time for that vapor to get into the air past winter? I mean that was Jan 2022...unless water vapor is slower/lingers longer than ash and such? (There a measure if how much of the water vapor is currently lingering?)

It's just that it was SO much.

5-10 years. That's how long it'll take to get rid of the excess water vapor...

 

[CAPE]

Latest ENSO diagnostic discussion from CPC-

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance. In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter

Latest ENSO Blog. Always a good read.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/how-do-noaa-scientists-predict-annual-global-temperature-ranking-ahead-time

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I've found that the cooler/wet Summer so far locally can be connected to El Nino, so things like roll-forward a wet July or whatever can be done with some validity. 

[Weather Will]

Believe....

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Believe....

Perfectly feasible outcome given where seasonals are placing the forcing, which makes sense assuming the W PAC stay so anomalously warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/13/2023 at 10:56 AM, Terpeast said:

91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points)

I think the strong +AO killed that winter. 

Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?

In terms of factoring in the eruption, 92-93 is probably of more relevance given how long ago it occured....that season was even more +AO. New England lucked out that year because the PV was so elongated, kind of like 2007-2008.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 7/14/2023 at 4:22 PM, Its a Breeze said:

It's just that it was SO much.

5-10 years. That's how long it'll take to get rid of the excess water vapor...

 

My goodness...last thing we needed was for something like that to possibly make things WARMER. We don't really know what the effect will be, but...if water vapor heats stuff up, not quite sure how it's not a negative for winter. But then again what do I know, lol Atmosphere is complex...

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My goodness...last thing we needed was for something like that to possibly make things WARMER. We don't really know what the effect will be, but...if water vapor heats stuff up, not quite sure how it's not a negative for winter. But then again what do I know, lol Atmosphere is complex...

If the stratosphere retains more vapor than usual, I’d expect it to have a warming effect given that its a potent greenhouse gas. A warmer polar stratosphere may result in a more persistent -ao/-nao, but if strat vapor content is evenly distributed across all latitudes and both hemispheres, then it may not matter as the whole world warms even more. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Central-subsurface has a -2c pocket. This is the correlator to N. Pacific pattern. In 72-73 despite a Strong Nino, central subsurface was -3 to -4, and that Winter had a strong -PNA. I'm more worried about the -PNA possibility than a Strong El Nino causing warm or whatever. 

[brooklynwx99]

hi. so the CanSIPS now has a super Nino hovering just at 2C, but it's actually a good thing. the forcing is still over the dateline and is stronger, so the blocking and overall +PNA/-NAO pattern is amplified. it's pretty sick looking

years like 1972 and 1991 are still in the cards, but this is very encouraging now that we're into August. that WPAC warm pool might be a big help. could give us Modoki-like forcing with a basin-wide event

[CAPE]

JFM h5 are drool worthy on the new edition.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CAPE said:

JFM h5 are drool worthy on the new edition.

with above average precip. it's a sick run and it could actually happen if the forcing occurs there. the C3S superensemble hinted at the same thing in the July update

[CAPE]

Esp Feb. Damn.

[brooklynwx99]

like i wonder where the storm track is here lmao

[WxUSAF]

Stalling bombs with pounding 34F rain 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like i wonder where the storm track is here lmao

Feb would be the coldest month, also on the dry side verbatim. Maybe snow on the NC coast, if such a thing is still possible.