Terpeast Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that's no bueno (why a certain poster in the other thread seems to want that so much is beyond me...I don't get it, lol) How was 2015-16 oriented? Basin wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino. I would. Every single Nino has been above average here In the last 30 years. Not a wall to wall winter. But above average because we get slammed with coastals. Now close to ocean I get it. But I am ecstatic about what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 On 6/21/2023 at 1:23 PM, brooklynwx99 said: this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao Don't really see a problem with that. Peaking in October is probably best case for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would. Every single Nino has been above average here In the last 30 years. Not a wall to wall winter. But above average because qr get slammed with coastals. Now close to ocean I get it. But I am ecstatic about what I am seeing. Wait your area produced in 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait your area produced in 97-98? 97-98 was front loaded if I remember correctly. I didn't save totals then. But we had snow here before Christmas. And a few other storms in January if my records are correct. Was definitely the worst as far as ninos go. But I will take ANYTHING other than the endless Nina hell we have been in for most of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, clskinsfan said: I would. Every single Nino has been above average here In the last 30 years. Not a wall to wall winter. But above average because we get slammed with coastals. Now close to ocean I get it. But I am ecstatic about what I am seeing. I guess my point is that basin wide/modoki is preferred over east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that's no bueno (why a certain poster in the other thread seems to want that so much is beyond me...I don't get it, lol) How was 2015-16 oriented? Basin wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 12 hours ago, clskinsfan said: 97-98 was front loaded if I remember correctly. I didn't save totals then. But we had snow here before Christmas. And a few other storms in January if my records are correct. Was definitely the worst as far as ninos go. But I will take ANYTHING other than the endless Nina hell we have been in for most of the decade. HGR had 13.3" in the 97- 98 season. Ranked 110 out of 124 seasons for snow totals. With our new base state my wag would be another horrific outcome with the same scenario. Alot of mid 30s perfect track rain storms. I agree though I would roll the dice with anything other than a Nina hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 12:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino. I think we just don't have a large enough dataset. Single-digit number of years. I think a lot of Strong Nino's in the late 1800s, early 1900s were cold anyway. The pattern they always produce is a -NOI, which has to do with the North Pacific High (right off the west coast). It puts a trough there (and to the GOA). If you plot a NE Pacific Ocean trough, you have a trough over the east, but the 3 examples of Strong Nino's on record had extended 2nd wave ridges, from coast-to-coast, which I'm going to say is more of an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 I'll put this here 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 3 hours ago, yoda said: I'll put this here The good news is that when ECMWF pushes the envelope, Congress pays attention. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 On 6/25/2023 at 10:30 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story. With a - QBO, El Nino and low sea ice backdrop it should yield a weaker than normal PV and colder temps in the East. How cold when it matters is unknown at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 On 6/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, yoda said: I'll put this here Hopefully this upgrade goes better than the last one. The last upgrade actually ended up degrading the Euro in the long range imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hopefully this upgrade goes better than the last one. The last upgrade actually ended up degrading the Euro in the long range imo. And I don't get that...aren't upgrades supposed make stuff, well...better? Lol Why do some model upgrades seem to make things worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And I don't get that...aren't upgrades supposed make stuff, well...better? Lol Why do some model upgrades seem to make things worse? The problem with complex, interconnect models like these are that you can’t just simply “fix” one thing and make it better. Let’s say you increase the resolution. While there are huge benefits to that, there are also potential downsides because every weather model has estimates built in and those may not be valid anymore at a different resolution. It also depends on what is being verified. The modeling centers run and assess for quite a while before release. But if they are focused on, say, heights and temperature, they may not care as much if east coast cyclones are now not handled quite as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 12 hours ago, frd said: With a - QBO, El Nino and low sea ice backdrop it should yield a weaker than normal PV and colder temps in the East. How cold when it matters is unknown at this time. If the precip drought continues, we could be looking at the potential for some boomers going into the Winter (as that would signal it's a macro pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 On 6/24/2023 at 9:04 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Wait your area produced in 97-98? No Every potential event had too much juice and too mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Latest edition of the CanSIPS is suggesting an El Nino somewhat weaker than last run- more on the moderate side, still basin wide, and with strongest sst anomalies shifting westward through winter . H5 maps are less weenie than last run, but through all the coarseness of a seasonal model, still suggestive of an overall pattern typical of a Nino, and possibly quite favorable for the MA, esp late winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 1, 2023 Share Posted July 1, 2023 Latest CFS runs are pretty weenie- more of a CP based Nino. Pretty nice h5 looks for late winter, similar to the new edition of CanSIPS. March.. back loaded winter of yore? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 It's still a macro-pattern, that means more activity with fewer systems. Seem pretty fitting going into an El Nino winter. Watch the central-ENSO subsurface, this has been cooling, and if that region continues not to warm the El Nino will have less effect in the Winter, despite what happens at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Just for the hell of it, current SST anomalies compared to early July 2009: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just for the hell of it, current SST anomalies compared to early July 2009: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ World is on fire. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: World is on fire. What is the timeframe used when making these maps? Do they update it like the temp charts (1990-2020)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong... super Nino losing a lot of credence at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong... super Nino losing a lot of credence at this point Yeah that’s what we want, but hoping it does not continue trending weaker. Otherwise nino effects will get washed out with background warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah that’s what we want, but hoping it does not continue trending weaker. Otherwise nino effects will get washed out with background warming if we get a moderate Nino we will be fine. doubt it's any weaker than 1.3-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Does a nino give us above average or below average summer precipitation? I've seen conflicting data on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 If this cold pool doesn't go anywhere, it's going to be more of a -pna Winter. Amazing to see the Nino getting squeezed out in the subsurface, after the Kelvin waves last Oct-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: World is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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