Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[JVscotch]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

HM says his preferred analogs right now are 1899 and 1925. Have no idea what that means for us.

Right.  They were around 25 inches (1899-1900) and 20 inches at bwi.  Maybe that could mean a 30+ inch winter now if temps can cooperate enough.  Would be nice to have a biggie but maybe we can squeeze out two!

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why are they being enhanced, though? (My apologies if this has been discussed at length already)

One reason is that some of the longer term changes happening (expanded Hadley cell, tightening pac jet, Indo pac warm pool) are causing a Nina like base state pattern response to begin with. They all have a similar impact as a Nina. 
 

The other is specific to my gradient comment. If you have a warm enso region surrounded by warmer waters it muted the gradient.  But if you have colder enso waters surrounded by the same warmer waters elsewhere is enhances the gradient. 
 

Everything is stacked against us right now. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. It’s just harder. It’s happening less often. But the good news is if we’re ever going to break out of this things look about as good as we could hope for (within the larger awful reality that the whole world is on fire figuratively). 

[stormy]

On 6/18/2023 at 11:28 AM, psuhoffman said:

One reason is that some of the longer term changes happening (expanded Hadley cell, tightening pac jet, Indo pac warm pool) are causing a Nina like base state pattern response to begin with. They all have a similar impact as a Nina. 
 

The other is specific to my gradient comment. If you have a warm enso region surrounded by warmer waters it muted the gradient.  But if you have colder enso waters surrounded by the same warmer waters elsewhere is enhances the gradient. 
 

Everything is stacked against us right now. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. It’s just harder. It’s happening less often. But the good news is if we’re ever going to break out of this things look about as good as we could hope for (within the larger awful reality that the whole world is on fire figuratively). 

The whole world is on fire figuratively ?????   This is a joke in reality!  Please don't misunderstand PSU.............  I must question your assumptions as they are simply not correct. The eastern U.S. has been cooler than normal for the past 90 days.

The Atlantic SST has cooled dramatically in the western section though the eastern Atlantic is anomalously very warm.

I am of the opinion that we must be completely honest with assessments of short range climate aberrations........... Otherwise, we are propagators of snake oil........................     

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The whole world is on fire figuratively ?????   This is a joke in reality!  Please don't misunderstand PSU.............  I must question your assumptions as they are simply not correct. The eastern U.S. has been cooler than normal for the past 90 days.

The Atlantic SST has cooled dramatically in the western section though the eastern Atlantic is anomalously very warm.

I am of the opinion that we must be completely honest with assessments of short range climate aberrations........... Otherwise, we are propagators of snake oil........................     

your opinion is meaningless 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

your opinion is meaningless 

please expand on your thoughts

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, stormy said:

please expand on your thoughts

Uneducated maybe?

Your post was random gibberish.

[anotherman]

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

please expand on your thoughts

your take - in addition to being factually inaccurate - was a garbage take, at least the few parts that were coherent.

[stormy]

"The whole world is on fire" needs to be quantified to be correct.

It needs to be a measurable quantity.    To say that the United States has suffered excessive heat for the past week is not true. To say that Texas has suffered excessive heat for the past week is true.

[Terpeast]

56 minutes ago, stormy said:

"The whole world is on fire" needs to be quantified to be correct.

It needs to be a measurable quantity.    To say that the United States has suffered excessive heat for the past week is not true. To say that Texas has suffered excessive heat for the past week is true.

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts?

Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts?

Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue. 

Lots and lots of underwater volcanoes?

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts?

Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue. 

Do they adjust the sst maps to the 1990-2020 baseline or is that only done for air temps?  

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Do they adjust the sst maps to the 1990-2020 baseline or is that only done for air temps?  

Good question - cpc doesn’t make that clear in their weekly enso reports. 

But I found this:

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good question - cpc doesn’t make that clear in their weekly enso reports. 

But I found this:

Thank you!  So weird that it is compared to such a small data set.  

[stormy]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts?

Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue. 

Yes, as a matter of fact I looked at both yesterday.  "a few small blue spots" makes my case.  Perhaps more than a "few".   As Mattie says about the drought, "I think we'll be fine".

[brooklynwx99]

14 hours ago, anotherman said:

this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao

 

[anotherman]

this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao

 

The only reason I shared it was because of who posted it (HM). When he gets concerned, I take notice.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

The only reason I shared it was because of who posted it (HM). When he gets concerned, I take notice.

i know, i really just don't see that happening at all. this event bears no resemblance to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98... those had massive westerly wind bursts and this event has nothing of the sort. I think this sits somewhere between 1.3-2C but that's about it

[brooklynwx99]

here are the zonal winds from the Ninos that topped out over 2C... 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. these all exhibit very strong WWBs in the western Pacific:

and here is this year:

there is just no similarity at all. just based on this alone, I find it very hard to see this event spiking well over 2C like some have been proclaiming. perhaps a month between 2-2.1C. the majority of models seem to agree on this

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, stormy said:

Yes, as a matter of fact I looked at both yesterday.  "a few small blue spots" makes my case.  Perhaps more than a "few".   As Mattie says about the drought, "I think we'll be fine".

Are you making a macro or micro point? In the micro it’s possible the nino could position what little cold there is over us. That could favor a short term short lived win. In the macro the fact that it’s warmer than normal over a vast majority of the planet is a huge problem for snow prospects. 

[psuhoffman]

14 hours ago, stormy said:

"The whole world is on fire" needs to be quantified to be correct.

It needs to be a measurable quantity.    To say that the United States has suffered excessive heat for the past week is not true. To say that Texas has suffered excessive heat for the past week is true.

Funny you dropped the “figuratively” which implies it’s a generalization and exaggeration.  And you do realize the United States is a rather insignificant portion of the Earth!  Let me know if you need more lessons in linguistics and geography  

 

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts?

Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue. 

[stormy]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny you dropped the “figuratively” which implies it’s a generalization and exaggeration.  And you do realize the United States is a rather insignificant portion of the Earth!  Let me know if you need more lessons in linguistics and geography  

 

Yes, I dropped figuratively.  You were sharp to catch that!  Cheer up! I do understand that you were being metaphorical with that sentence.  I don't need any lessons on linguistics or geography.  The only thing I ask for is a heads up from You at least 5 days before my first 6 inch snowfall next winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Years after a NAO event(s) doesn't correlate, the pattern [PNA] is uniform. I think a Strong Nino, even east-based, could put a mean trough over us. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:46 PM, psuhoffman said:

I could see us getting 30-60" next Winter, pretty easily. We have a -QBO too which really goes well with El Nino. I've always contested that he Stronger the Nino, the better.. 

Biggest fear is a 18-19 type of deal where the PNA correlates until Nov then the -PDO, or global -AAM enhances tendency for a SE ridge. You guys did fine in 13-14 and 14-15 so I wouldn't worry too much. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

For reference, last Winter was Strong Nina/+QBO = 0 inches. Pretty awesome correlation. I even in the Fall said we would have an uncorrelating -NAO, given the previous 3 Nina/+QBO's, since 2008. 

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I could see us getting 30-60" next Winter, pretty easily. We have a -QBO too which really goes well with El Nino. I've always contested that he Stronger the Nino, the better.. 

Biggest fear is a 18-19 type of deal where the PNA correlates until Nov then the -PDO, or global -AAM enhances tendency for a SE ridge. You guys did fine in 13-14 and 14-15 so I wouldn't worry too much. 

Some might dismiss or scoff at this, but I wouldn’t.

I have an eye on the QBO possibly turning negative for the winter. The only fly in the ointment is high/rising solar, but I don’t know how much weight that holds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

Are you making a macro or micro point? In the micro it’s possible the nino could position what little cold there is over us. That could favor a short term short lived win. In the macro the fact that it’s warmer than normal over a vast majority of the planet is a huge problem for snow prospects. 

Not necessarily...especially in the mid Atlantic, where one storm can make a season. All of that warmth must raise the stakes in terms of storm potential....especially if we get any type of baroclinicity at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/23/2023 at 11:32 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Years after a NAO event(s) doesn't correlate, the pattern [PNA] is uniform. I think a Strong Nino, even east-based, could put a mean trough over us. 

I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino.

Yeah that's no bueno (why a certain poster in the other thread seems to want that so much is beyond me...I don't get it, lol) How was 2015-16 oriented?