Itryatgolf70 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 48 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just posted this. This year, we have a -QBO (and falling) plus ascending solar flux. When I pair -QBO and ascending solar, I see a better signal for blocking. You'll like this. Read: Imo, if the pacific is going to be in bad shape or not favorable to deliver cold into the US, east of the rockies, we will want to see unbelievable blocking to offset the pacific. I'm still hoping the pacific is somewhat favorable to deliver cold for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Imo, if the pacific is going to be in bad shape or not favorable to deliver cold into the US, east of the rockies, we will want to see unbelievable blocking to offset the pacific. I'm still hoping the pacific is somewhat favorable to deliver cold for us. I think we will have some favorable 2-week periods interpersed throughout, though definitely not wall to wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 12 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Imo, if the pacific is going to be in bad shape or not favorable to deliver cold into the US, east of the rockies, we will want to see unbelievable blocking to offset the pacific. I'm still hoping the pacific is somewhat favorable to deliver cold for us. The PDO is close to neutral now. Barring any turn back the other way, it shouldn't be a big problem. Many are touting how the -PDO along with a strong Nino dooms the Eastern US. Thing is the PDO isn't very negative nor is the Nino set to be very strong imo, nor is it predominantly east based, of which can be a killer for the Eastern States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 On 10/28/2023 at 9:30 AM, mattie g said: People like to stick with their negative takes be abuse they draw attention and gives the poster the chance to spew “I told you sos” after the fact if things don’t go how many few it will. Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. I find myself doing a lot of scrolling past all the reminiscing. The earth changes regardless of humans or science. Maps you see today are already obsolete. Science is testing/comparison/theorum/deduction/results and analysis. It isn't foolproof or absolute because it's a man made conceptual system for us to understand our immediate reality better. The same science that declares the earth is moving to a heatsink is the same science that declared frozen future ice ages in the 60s. The same science that 'knew' the sun rotated the earth. As our understanding of the planet increases over time so will the accuracy. The oceans are still 70 percent unknown even now and they are a driving force of weather patterns. The earth has a chaos factor, not rigid systemic order that we can always package neatly for convenience. and now back to your regularly scheduled program... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 It’s beginning to look a lot like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Pixee said: Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. I find myself doing a lot of scrolling past all the reminiscing. The earth changes regardless of humans or science. Maps you see today are already obsolete. Science is testing/comparison/theorum/deduction/results and analysis. It isn't foolproof or absolute because it's a man made conceptual system for us to understand our immediate reality better. The same science that declares the earth is moving to a heatsink is the same science that declared frozen future ice ages in the 60s. The same science that 'knew' the sun rotated the earth. As our understanding of the planet increases over time so will the accuracy. The oceans are still 70 percent unknown even now and they are a driving force of weather patterns. The earth has a chaos factor, not rigid systemic order that we can always package neatly for convenience. and now back to your regularly scheduled program... Go cry about it, unfortunately for you we are an atmospheric science board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 this might win me the weenie of the year but if you just looked at ONI--the best match i found for where we are now and where we are headed potentially is 57-58 lol https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Pixee said: Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. I find myself doing a lot of scrolling past all the reminiscing. The earth changes regardless of humans or science. Maps you see today are already obsolete. Science is testing/comparison/theorum/deduction/results and analysis. It isn't foolproof or absolute because it's a man made conceptual system for us to understand our immediate reality better. The same science that declares the earth is moving to a heatsink is the same science that declared frozen future ice ages in the 60s. The same science that 'knew' the sun rotated the earth. As our understanding of the planet increases over time so will the accuracy. The oceans are still 70 percent unknown even now and they are a driving force of weather patterns. The earth has a chaos factor, not rigid systemic order that we can always package neatly for convenience. and now back to your regularly scheduled program... May I refer you to a better source given your preferences 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s beginning to look a lot like winter. We're in mid season form and it's not even November yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: May I refer you to a better source given your preferences 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Go cry about it, unfortunately for you we are an atmospheric science board. Miss the point all day and half the night if you want. cool with me. I cry about nothing on this forum. It's snow, not world peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: May I refer you to a better source given your preferences THAT'S RIGHT! Besides we're supposed to be "Snowball Earth" right now according to 60s scientists. Why isn't earth a block of ice?...but, but... And just think nobody has mentioned fat squirrels, woolies, or persimmon seeds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 43 minutes ago, Pixee said: THAT'S RIGHT! Besides we're supposed to be "Snowball Earth" right now according to 60s scientists. Why isn't earth a block of ice?...but, but... And just think nobody has mentioned fat squirrels, woolies, or persimmon seeds! Snowball earth. D+ level bit. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 35 minutes ago, Pixee said: THAT'S RIGHT! Besides we're supposed to be "Snowball Earth" right now according to 60s scientists. Why isn't earth a block of ice? Because that idea never had consensus in the 60s and 70s. It's a common fallacy, published research from back then predicted the modern day warming rather accurately, surprisingly so for being half a century ago. In any case the thought process of "science was wrong back then so it shouldn't be taken with any credence now" is one made in bad faith. Scientific inquiry is not infallible, but the best working theories or lines of research cannot be disregarded simply because some guy was wrong 500 years ago. Even your 60s argument has no weight when comparing to the current working theory of current global temperature rise. The 60s idea never had any great backing or predictive capabilities. The best understood theory of current global temp rise has both of those things. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: As a cat owner, this is all the “proof” that I need. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Pixee said: Miss the point all day and half the night if you want. cool with me. I cry about nothing on this forum. It's snow, not world peace. Damn “all day and half the night” Russia must be spending a lot more on its bots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Because that idea never had consensus in the 60s and 70s. It's a common fallacy, published research from back then predicted the modern day warming rather accurately, surprisingly so for being half a century ago. In any case the thought process of "science was wrong back then so it shouldn't be taken with any credence now" is one made in bad faith. Scientific inquiry is not infallible, but the best working theories or lines of research cannot be disregarded simply because some guy was wrong 500 years ago. Even your 60s argument has no weight when comparing to the current working theory of current global temperature rise. The 60s idea never had any great backing or predictive capabilities. The best understood theory of current global temp rise has both of those things. I appreciate your post but nothing we say will ever convince them, they are deliberately engaging in bad faith to spread their ideas, not to have them challenged by others which would cause them to reevaluate their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Look folks, I'm just having fun with this. No need to get all cramped up, I'm simply saying science is an ongoing process. What was believed possible in the past not so much now. In 2300 people likely will question the current analysis with different technology. Theories ebb and flow, such as plate tectonics. I worked for a certain atmospheric oceanic agency so I get the whole climate bit. What we don't know if this is a normal cycle spiked by human activity or a long term trend. It's also curious considering the environmental controls in place now that didn't exist decades ago. So many factors involved. The ice age was posted as a parody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 This stupid conversation is all over thanks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This stupid conversation is all over thanks. That like on the initial post is a name I haven’t seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 4 hours ago, MN Transplant said: That like on the initial post is a name I haven’t seen in a while. I wonder why, it couldn’t be all the crazies on this board could it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 17 hours ago, ravensrule said: I wonder why, it couldn’t be all the crazies on this board could it. He liked a post from one of the crazies 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He liked a post from one of the crazies Truthiness is a hell of a drug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Isnt the cansips supposed to be out by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 22 hours ago, MN Transplant said: That like on the initial post is a name I haven’t seen in a while. He’s been posting in the ENSO thread on the main board. With the Philly forum’s demise, hopefully he will join the discussion here when we are teeing up our KU this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: He liked a post from one of the crazies Unfortunately there are so many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Truthiness is a hell of a drug. How often do you take that drug?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 On 10/30/2023 at 2:29 PM, Pixee said: Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. I find myself doing a lot of scrolling past all the reminiscing. The earth changes regardless of humans or science. Maps you see today are already obsolete. Science is testing/comparison/theorum/deduction/results and analysis. It isn't foolproof or absolute because it's a man made conceptual system for us to understand our immediate reality better. The same science that declares the earth is moving to a heatsink is the same science that declared frozen future ice ages in the 60s. The same science that 'knew' the sun rotated the earth. As our understanding of the planet increases over time so will the accuracy. The oceans are still 70 percent unknown even now and they are a driving force of weather patterns. The earth has a chaos factor, not rigid systemic order that we can always package neatly for convenience. and now back to your regularly scheduled program... Not for the NE.....but regardless, its a good analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 On 10/30/2023 at 2:29 PM, Pixee said: Almost as annoying as the never ending obsession with 2009-2010 as if it's the eternal benchmark for all storms on the east coast. That’s because it is. 3 HECS in one year, where most good winters have only one. H5 pattern cannot get any better than that winter. Pure textbook. And if it weren’t a decent analog this year, nobody would be obsessing about it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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