Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.

Maybe it was because my area got stuck in the dryslot, but 2016 storm wasn't very cold. The 2009-10 KUs all ended up with temps in the low or mid 20s here at the height of the events, although 2 had temps in the low-mid 30s right at onset. The late Jan 2010 storm was cold powder with temps in the mid teens- not a KU though.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, JVscotch said:

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc.  That was an awesome event and had strong winds.  

Yeah that was a legit blizzard over here. Was hard to measure with snow still otg and all the wind, but it was well over a foot. The first 'phase' of that was a miss here.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

We also had the very cold storm at the end of January that ushered in the epic stretch.

Overall, I remember that winter being not terribly cold, but it was certainly cold enough when it needed to be.

That's how it works around here with a moderate CP Nino and strong -AO/NAO. At least it used to.

[mattie g]

Just now, CAPE said:

That's how it works around here with a moderate CP Nino and strong -AO/NAO. At least it used to.

For sure.

Definitely not the same thing, but it's like how Denver often gets snow. It's 60 and sunny for days on end and then they get dumped on at 15 degrees. 

[Ji]

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

New edition of the CanSIPS will be out in 6 days. Be interesting to see if it remains bullish with the favorable looks.

probably no

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

probably no

Watch the December update flip to a dead ratter with a raging +NAO/AO

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Chris78 said:

If I remember correctly it was in the teens for alot of the Storm in 2016. Atleast along the blueridge 

Yeah even here it was like low 20s if I'm not mistaken.

[Rhino16]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

For sure.

Definitely not the same thing, but it's like how Denver often gets snow. It's 60 and sunny for days on end and then they get dumped on at 15 degrees. 

Then it warms up again very quickly to 60! I think because the air warms coming down the mountain.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, HighStakes said:

79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.

I thought 2003 was more of the heavy and wet variety? (I had assumed heavy and wet meant 28-32 degrees)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

95-96 was our last "dry snow" significant winter. 

[JVscotch]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

95-96 was our last "dry snow" significant winter. 

I felt like 2013-2014 had it’s fair share of cold powder but I know it was mixed with a couple wetter events. 

[HighStakes]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought 2003 was more of the heavy and wet variety? (I had assumed heavy and wet meant 28-32 degrees)

Teens throughout the event. Some high single digits and low teens for a while north of the city.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Teens throughout the event. Some high single digits and low teens for a while north of the city.

So you can still have wet snow even with teens?

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you can still have wet snow even with teens?

Sure. Its possible to be in the teens at the ground while its 32 aloft

[Chris78]

46 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Teens throughout the event. Some high single digits and low teens for a while north of the city.

It was our second winter in Smithsburg. It was 10 degrees and puking snow. I remember it was a very fine snow but so thick. It really piled up quick. 

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sure. Its possible to be in the teens at the ground while its 32 aloft

Ah okay--that makes sense. Yeah I'll never forget 2003 for just how deep and wet that snow was (neither will the B&O Railroad museum). My scrawny 12 year-old body would sink into the snow and I had to grab onto something to pull myself up, lol First 2 footer I was old enough to fully remember (1996 I have a fuzzier memory of)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah okay--that makes sense. Yeah I'll never forget 2003 for just how deep and wet that snow was (neither will the B&O Railroad museum). My scrawny 12 year-old body would sink into the snow and I had to grab onto something to pull myself up, lol First 2 footer I was old enough to fully remember (1996 I have a fuzzier memory of)

The drifts were really something in the Blizzard of '96.

I remember crawling up hills to get to the house in 1-2" of ice in '93. I may classify that as a cold Winter

[HighStakes]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you can still have wet snow even with teens?

I'm not sure what you mean. 2003 was not a wet snow. Even when it changed to sleet it was still very cold. Temps did warm into Monday morning and it all ended as a final burst of snow. It did warm after the storm and another small feature caused light snow overnight Monday into Tuesday and that was heavier wetter snow. 

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah okay--that makes sense. Yeah I'll never forget 2003 for just how deep and wet that snow was (neither will the B&O Railroad museum). My scrawny 12 year-old body would sink into the snow and I had to grab onto something to pull myself up, lol First 2 footer I was old enough to fully remember (1996 I have a fuzzier memory of)

1996 was my favorite. It seemed whenever someone farted, it would snow. And it would be a cold, dry, windblown snow. That winter - it was just too easy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

46 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

1996 was my favorite. It seemed whenever someone farted, it would snow. And it would be a cold, dry, windblown snow. That winter - it was just too easy. 

That winter was amazing. Was growing up in Philly and it just snowed. We got 2" - 4" events regularly.

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That winter was amazing. Was growing up in Philly and it just snowed. We got 2" - 4" events regularly.

I fondly recall 96 has having snow cover most of the winter.  Probably the last time I remember that.  Around the superbowl that year I remember there being like 15" of snow on the ground and it was around 10 below.  Deep, deep winter.

[mappy]

On 10/16/2023 at 2:18 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Yeah, just brutal bad timing on our parts, I suppose. But...dayum. It has been disappointing given that this is PRECISELY  one of the reasons for the move I made. 

Im quite late to this but it was just shit timing with the move and 2 crappy winters up here back to back. I thought I had hit the jackpot when I got 70" during my first winter. Nah, just a snowy winter compared to the rest. Patience! We will get snow. Eventually  

[WxUSAF]

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

After the last couple of winters I'd be tickled with that. 

[nw baltimore wx]

 

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Move that 30 miles southeast and we’d all be happy.

[AlexD1990]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

Move that 30 miles southeast and we’d all be happy.

Make that like 75 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

That would be well below climo for most of Southern MD, but it would be much more than I've gotten in 3 of the last 4 winters, so there's that I guess. 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Reasonable guess.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

He's low. -PNA's have been hard to develop since the El Nino began. I think we are looking at a neutral to +PNA Winter. Maybe +NAO when there is no Stratospheric warming involved. 

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC

 

https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=-46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Yeah. 18-28 is pretty meh here in all honesty. That would be one big storm.