Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Solid write up by DT. I agree with a lot of his assessment. We have been talking about how this El Niño is not behaving like typical past events at the office which leads me to believe there will likely be some surprises in the future. 
 

As per usual, the first part of late-fall/early-winter will be pretty Ho-hum around here. As the wavelengths shorten, things could get pretty interesting. I do think we get on the board by Christmas, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we got nothing until January. 

My feeling as well. Probably going to be some head scratching things this winter with the Nino behavior plus other factors like HTHH, PDO, and QBO. But I agree that we probably get something in December and then hopefully a couple 2-3 week heaters in mid January-early March?

[stormy]

An interesting presentation from DT.  In summary at the end, "Where do we go from here" , things to watch the next 60 days. Does the Nino stay broken?  I agree this is important. And, watch the updated seasonals in early Nov. I will be watching very closely.

[psuhoffman]

On 10/19/2023 at 11:02 AM, mattie g said:

But were those Modoki ratters or are you referring to crappy Nino winters without looking at where the SST anomalies were located?

91-92 *was* a Modoki, right?

I realize that I'm maybe focusing a bit too much on the type of Nino, but that does seem like *the* significant similarity between the two winters, thus it stands to reason that the significant difference in snowfall in both years (or even between 91-92 and other Modokis) could very well have been the result of an anomalous event that occurred in the 1991 timeframe.

 

Everyone can’t even agree on what years are modoki. It’s much more a spectrum than many describe it. But you’re right the nature of the Nino matters a lot. I know 1992 was considered a modoki by some, enough that it’s listed as such in one paper I read and on a web archive. But the sst charts I use to get a better picture excluded data from 1991 and 1992 so I can’t see for myself. I know 1995 was also considered a modoki and it was a POS winter. 
 

I just try to guard against drilling down too much. In general a Nino gives a by far the greatest chances of a snowy winter wrt “normal”. But it’s not 90%+. It’s like 70% when all other enso is like 25-35% depending on the specifics. So yea we want Nino but it’s not “it’s definitely gonna snow a lot” just probably. 
 

And I’m hesitant to try to attribute what went wrong in the 30% of ninos that aren’t super snowy to any one factor because no one factor can be blamed for all of them. They said there is plenty of evidence that the eruption was a significant contributing factor. But how significant?  

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone can’t even agree on what years are modoki. It’s much more a spectrum than many describe it. But you’re right the nature of the Nino matters a lot. I know 1992 was considered a modoki by some, enough that it’s listed as such in one paper I read and on a web archive. But the sst charts I use to get a better picture excluded data from 1991 and 1992 so I can’t see for myself. I know 1995 was also considered a modoki and it was a POS winter. 
 

I just try to guard against drilling down too much. In general a Nino gives a by far the greatest chances of a snowy winter wrt “normal”. But it’s not 90%+. It’s like 70% when all other enso is like 25-35% depending on the specifics. So yea we want Nino but it’s not “it’s definitely gonna snow a lot” just probably. 
 

And I’m hesitant to try to attribute what went wrong in the 30% of ninos that aren’t super snowy to any one factor because no one factor can be blamed for all of them. They said there is plenty of evidence that the eruption was a significant contributing factor. But how significant?  

Yeah it’s not a guarantee as we’ve had a couple of ratters in the nino cohort (72-73, 91-92 and probably another within the 50s)

The definition of a modoki is even more nebulous to me, so I just stick with east based, basin wide, or west leaning based on where the forcing is. 

I’ll have a write up on this in Nov when I do my outlook, but current thinking is that an “decent but not crazy” winter is the most probable outcome, with a 09-10 redux being the second likely outcome. Another ratter i think has the least chance of happening, but still a non zero chance

[mattie g]

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

[Chris78]

20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

He knows his stuff. It's unfortunate he can't behave on here lol

[GramaxRefugee]

54 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

I noticed that too. Was wondering if he has teamed with an editor somehow.

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I noticed that too. Was wondering if he has teamed with an editor somehow.

I was thinking the same, then I starting paying attention and still noticed plenty of mistakes. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

link?

[JB Fins]

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

 

[Weather Will]

WB CFS. One run but..January....looks sweet.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB CFS. One run but..January....looks sweet.

Just like all the other seasonal models, they project out what the current conditions are. 

[Weather Will]

Could be the kiss of death but JB in a recent WB post says he is tweaking his forecast for a faster start to winter in January.  Hope the November seasonal updates in another week show the same thing.

[Chris78]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Could be the kiss of death but JB in a recent WB post says he is tweaking his forecast for a faster start to winter in January.  Hope the November seasonal updates in another week show the same thing.

Close the blinds. 

[clskinsfan]

Not that it matters but I agree with DT as well. Especially with the overall pattern so far this fall. I probably sound like a broken record but storms want to climb the coast so far this fall. Temps are my only concern in all honesty. And that concern stems from having decent blocking events over the past couple of winters but no cold air making it down to us. But I would bet a ton on above normal precip for all of us this winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB CFS. One run but..January....looks sweet.

Not a lot of attlantic blocking there. Would imply cold with maybe clippers. Not the greatest pattern for us snow wise, but I'd take this in a skinny minute over 55 and bad air quality.

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not a lot of attlantic blocking there. Would imply cold with maybe clippers. Not the greatest pattern for us snow wise, but I'd take this in a skinny minute over 55 and bad air quality.

It's a single run of the CFS. Useless, as it runs multiple times a day, and changes like the wind. TT has the average of the last 12 runs, which gives a better idea of what the model is advertising if you monitor it over a week or more. The depiction at h5 for the winter months has generally looked like crap for a while now.

January-

[CAPE]

^Ignore the colors(anomalies) and focus on the height contours and that isn't awful.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Ignore the colors(anomalies) and focus on the height contours and that isn't awful.

Your standard strong/super Nino with a roided-out Aleutian ridge. Sure Jan.

[CAPE]

New edition of the CanSIPS will be out in 6 days. Be interesting to see if it remains bullish with the favorable looks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I liked DT's presentation....one thing I have noticed about him is that he inconspicuously never ends up issuing that "final update", so that he isn't really on record with an actual forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a single run of the CFS. Useless, as it runs multiple times a day, and changes like the wind. TT has the average of the last 12 runs, which gives a better idea of what the model is advertising if you monitor it over a week or more. The depiction at h5 for the winter months has generally looked like crap for a while now.

January-

That to me screams "active" with the split flow....and while the polar domain doesn't look great, the PNA over top of the STJ in the split flow would ensure enough cold to keep folks engaged.

Like.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That to me screams "active" with the split flow....and while the polar domain doesn't look great, the PNA over top of the STJ in the split flow would ensure enough cold to keep folks engaged.

Like.

Yeah if you squint and ignore the colors, focus on the height lines and follow the flow(and disregard advertised surface temp anomalies), its not bad. People generally try to glean too much from these super smoothed seasonal forecast tools.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah if you squint and ignore the colors, focus on the height lines and follow the flow(and disregard advertised surface temp anomalies), its not bad. People generally try to glean too much from these super smoothed seasonal forecast tools.

Its not a frigid pattern, but I don't think anyone expects that.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not a frigid pattern, but I don't think anyone expects that.

Too cold and we eat cirrus. Don't need that.

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Too cold and we eat cirrus. Don't need that.

Our snowiest history has always been..."just cold enough". Very seldom is it 20 degree cold powder (I think the 2016 blizzard came close though, didn't it?) 28-32 degrees...But now we gotta see if "just cold enough" still exists! That's why I'm rooting for this Nino so we know where we're at. I do hope it still works...but we'll see.

[HighStakes]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Our snowiest history has always been..."just cold enough". Very seldom is it 20 degree cold powder (I think the 2016 blizzard came close though, didn't it?) 28-32 degrees...But now we gotta see if "just cold enough" still exists! That's why I'm rooting for this Nino so we know where we're at. I do hope it still works...but we'll see.

79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.

If I remember correctly it was in the teens for alot of the Storm in 2016. Atleast along the blueridge 

[JVscotch]

36 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

79, 83, 96, 2003, 2016 very cold storms. Only 2010 had marginal cold.

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc.  That was an awesome event and had strong winds.  

[mattie g]

14 minutes ago, JVscotch said:

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc.  That was an awesome event and had strong winds.  

We also had the very cold storm at the end of January that ushered in the epic stretch.

Overall, I remember that winter being not terribly cold, but it was certainly cold enough when it needed to be.