Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[stormy]

I started all of this discussion, so its about time that I pipe in.

91-92 and 09-10 with similar strong Nino signals had vastly different snowfall totals for the MA.

First, I wish to thank Cape and PSU for their valuable contributions during the past 24 hours.

Cape in the beginning pointed out as I suspected that 09-10 was an unusual combination of persistent negative NAO and AO.   PSU gave support and additional explanatory text.

The obvious reaction to raw data is that both years had wet Decembers and dry February's.

Snowfall was dictated by how much high latitude blocking occurred.  

Get the cold air here with a moderate to strong Nino ,  blocking and snow will fall with systems.

Lack of cold air results in disappointment, especially below 500 ft. elevation.

 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes. 91-92 could have been a pretty great winter with a Nino and -QBO! Pinatubo ruined that. 

This winter I suppose we will see if the -QBO can counter the increased Strat water vapor. This sort of stuff is all very nebulous, so we just can't know the overall impacts on sensible weather. On paper it can look like a damn mess, but a bit of luck and favorable wave timing a time or 2 and no one will care if the 3 month AO mean ends up positive.

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699

The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol. 

 

 

9 hours ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for this!

I'm certainly no expert, but I did do a little researching on the Googles before making that post (and wouldn't have made the post had I not at least read about what I claimed). Yes...I realize that there may have been other factors involved, but everything I saw pointed to Pinatubo having a major effect on increasing the +AO values in 91-92.

I don’t mean to say it didn’t have an impact. But we’ve had other ratter +AO ninos that had nothing to do with a volcanic eruption. Was Pinatubo the catalyst or just a contributing factor?   Just speculating. There are so many anomalies in this game I always am skeptical of simple solutions.  I am not discounting it, it was one of the two things on my list of that worry me most about winter. 

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This winter I suppose we will see if the -QBO can counter the increased Strat water vapor. This sort of stuff is all very nebulous, so we just can't know the overall impacts on sensible weather. On paper it can look like a damn mess, but a bit of luck and favorable wave timing a time or 2 and no one will care if the 3 month AO mean ends up positive.

Unfortunately I think the research speculated that a -QBO makes it worse. Causes an inverse reaction to a typical -QBO Nino reaction.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Unfortunately I think the research speculated that a -QBO makes it worse. Causes an inverse reaction to a typical -QBO Nino reaction.  

The focus is always on the macro at this juncture. Plenty of speculation going on. Another month or 2 no one will care about Strat water vapor content or QBO. We will be busy tracking D15 fantasies for 3 months. Cant wait!

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The focus is always on the macro at this juncture. Plenty of speculation going on. Another month or 2 no one will care about Strat water vapor content or QBO. We will be busy tracking D15 fantasies for 3 months. Cant wait!

Unless the worst happens with the AO...then we'll be bemoaning Hunga, lol

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The focus is always on the macro at this juncture. Plenty of speculation going on. Another month or 2 no one will care about Strat water vapor content or QBO. We will be busy tracking D15 fantasies for 3 months. Cant wait!

 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Unless the worst happens with the AO...then we'll be bemoaning Hunga, lol

We will be busy living out D15 fantasies for three months, and be buried in deep snow!

The very BEST that can happen, WILL HAPPEN with the Arctic Oscillation, and every snow weenie in the Mid Atlantic wont just be flying. They'll be in near permanent orbit.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

This winter I suppose we will see if the -QBO can counter the increased Strat water vapor. This sort of stuff is all very nebulous, so we just can't know the overall impacts on sensible weather. On paper it can look like a damn mess, but a bit of luck and favorable wave timing a time or 2 and no one will care if the 3 month AO mean ends up positive.

We are going to be unprecedentedly lucky this winter in the Mid Atlantic. In fact we will be so lucky, and so many waves will time well with cold air, that weather enthusiasts will somehow plow their way to MGM National Harbor and WIN BIG on Craps and other Table Games.

IF, you all can dig all that deep snow!

[Jebman]

17 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yes it is. made that composite my profile photo a couple winters ago for good vibes or something. we were desperate up in here.

Not gonna be desperate this winter. Can't always say for sure what complex combo of moving parts make a good winter in the Mid Atlantic, but in 23-24 it just happens --- and people will be frantically digging massive amounts of snow. You'll not only need a bigger shovel, you will be crying for the Jebman to come help dig you out, lol.

[jayyy]

Yeah even with lowered expectations and the unknown of what still works, if HTHH ruins an otherwise good look we haven't gotten in years, that's gonna hurt given what we've gone through. C'mon we don't deserve that, lolol That would be Jets fan luck

Maybe we’re the 2023 Jets and manage to pull out a win over the eagles despite all of the obstacles we face!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Maybe we’re the 2023 Jets and manage to pull out a win over the eagles despite all of the obstacles we face!

I can roll with that...because that would be at least one good storm which is more than what we've had, and Aaron Rodgers throwing during warm-ups as a potential bonus we'd never expect 

[mattie g]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mean to say it didn’t have an impact. But we’ve had other ratter +AO ninos that had nothing to do with a volcanic eruption. Was Pinatubo the catalyst or just a contributing factor?   Just speculating. There are so many anomalies in this game I always am skeptical of simple solutions.  I am not discounting it, it was one of the two things on my list of that worry me most about winter. 

Unfortunately I think the research speculated that a -QBO makes it worse. Causes an inverse reaction to a typical -QBO Nino reaction.  

But were those Modoki ratters or are you referring to crappy Nino winters without looking at where the SST anomalies were located?

91-92 *was* a Modoki, right?

I realize that I'm maybe focusing a bit too much on the type of Nino, but that does seem like *the* significant similarity between the two winters, thus it stands to reason that the significant difference in snowfall in both years (or even between 91-92 and other Modokis) could very well have been the result of an anomalous event that occurred in the 1991 timeframe.

 

[Jebman]

Not only do long range models indicate troughs in the East this winter, but you guys have been troughing a good bit all YEAR lol!

Troughs plus an active subtrop jet and timing well with cold air = Memorable Mid Atlantic Winter. Lots of snow and sore backs and fights for parking spots and shouting angrily at plow operators for leaving 6 foot snow berms in your driveways repeatedly, that freeze ultra hard like avalanche snow in Alta Utah, that you then get to chip thru with a pick, for hours and hours.

Strap yourselves in, hell of a ride incoming!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm not one who really agrees that the volcano was the reason for that bad Winter (91-92). It was a decadal peak of the +NAO cycle and +PDO cycle, as a lot of Winter's + had similar conditions. Sometimes you don't have a perfect dataset.. there are just anomalies. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good news: -PNA was not able to form despite strong long term modeling trend. We have a -EPO pattern now setting in, and there has been a rogue low south of the Aleutian islands as well. This is rapidly shifting the PDO positive at this time. I've seen now since the Spring, 4-5 times where it looked like models were going toward a -PNA, then they just couldn't do it, it ends up being light +pna, -epo. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good news: -PNA was not able to form despite strong long term modeling trend. We have a -EPO pattern now setting in, and there has been a rogue low south of the Aleutian islands as well. This is rapidly shifting the PDO positive at this time. I've seen now since the Spring, 4-5 times where it looked like models were going toward a -PNA, then they just couldn't do it, it ends up being light +pna, -epo. 

Not sure if the PDO is rapidly shifting positive, but good to see the SSTs cooling north of Hawaii. If the Aleutian low becomes a fixture (typically occurs in a Nino), the PDO should trend more towards neutral. The PDO phase is more of an effect than a driver- mostly influenced by ENSO, Ocean currents, and the strength/position of the Aleutian low in winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a pretty major trend here with no Aleutian High's on the way. 

https://ibb.co/3pbmXP4

Going to Neutral, not positive is probably right. I was just talking about the trend direction: It's the highest the PDO has been in a year. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Maybe a ray of hope for us?

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure if the PDO is rapidly shifting positive, but good to see the SSTs cooling north of Hawaii. If the Aleutian low becomes a fixture (typically occurs in a Nino), the PDO should trend more towards neutral. The PDO phase is more of an effect than a driver- mostly influenced by ENSO, Ocean currents, and the strength/position of the Aleutian low in winter.

Shared this in the main nino thread. 

[WxUSAF]

I’ve gotten more optimistic over the last few weeks. Don’t think this is 09-10 returned, but think it may feel like it after last year. We’ll be tracking.

[Jebman]

I am becoming increasingly suspicious this winter, of what may well turn out to be a bone dry El Nino for Texas all winter, resulting in a catastrophically bone dry Spring 2024 and then a truly desperate bone dry Summer 2024, with ground water supplies completely drying out and outright wars over water breaking out.

Right now we have an unbelievable influx of people moving in from all over the country, in addition to folks coming north from lovely southern locales.

It's going to change. Once everyone gets on city water, and the Colorado River dries up, there is going to be a massive Gaza-like exodus to anyplace that gets regular rain, like Florida. Or New Orleans.

Mid Atlantic is on track for lots rain trending down into mix then heavy snows throughout the Winter of 2023-24 then the so-called spring of 2024. I used to live up there. You guys get every single storm that smashes into the CONUS. In fact the Mid Atlantic may be 400 percent above normal for precip into the Summer of 2024. That figure may turn out to be ridiculously conservative. This Nino is going to dump and dump and dump on the Eastern Seaboard. It is already happening. Western Europe is also getting hit and will continue to be extremely hard hit this winter and next spring.

But the inconvenient Truth over time, is that the Southwest IS TRENDING MUCH DRIER. I'd happily pay higher taxes in order to get a billion year atmospheric river right into Hays County where I live. I want moisture from both the South Pacific and the Caribbean feeding in and generating endless training thunderstorms and huge deep orange returns about eight hundred miles long with highly efficient rains that just keep on coming and coming and Central Texas is in the news for billion year flooding, with insane blocking that just keeps the storm process anchored over Texas for many fun days and nights! I'd love to see Rt 1626 and Rt 967 under 45 feet of floodwaters. Thats right where I live, and it is dry as a frackin' Martini.

I am crying out desperately for a George BM-magnitude rain event, and even for MULTIPLE George BM-magnitude rain events.

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve gotten more optimistic over the last few weeks. Don’t think this is 09-10 returned, but think it may feel like it after last year. We’ll be tracking.

You can take that to the bank, with fifty percent interest. Mid Atlantic is in for a massive treat, with weather weenies flying all over the place!

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am becoming increasingly suspicious this winter, of what may well turn out to be a bone dry El Nino for Texas all winter, resulting in a catastrophically bone dry Spring 2024 and then a truly desperate bone dry Summer 2024, with ground water supplies completely drying out and outright wars over water breaking out.

Right now we have an unbelievable influx of people moving in from all over the country, in addition to folks coming north from lovely southern locales.

It's going to change. Once everyone gets on city water, and the Colorado River dries up, there is going to be a massive Gaza-like exodus to anyplace that gets regular rain, like Florida. Or New Orleans.

Mid Atlantic is on track for lots rain trending down into mix then heavy snows throughout the Winter of 2023-24 then the so-called spring of 2024. I used to live up there. You guys get every single storm that smashes into the CONUS. In fact the Mid Atlantic may be 400 percent above normal for precip into the Summer of 2024. That figure may turn out to be ridiculously conservative. This Nino is going to dump and dump and dump on the Eastern Seaboard. It is already happening.

But the inconvenient Truth over time, is that the Southwest IS TRENDING MUCH DRIER. I'd happily pay higher taxes in order to get a billion year atmospheric river right into Hays County where I live. I'd love to see Rt 1626 and Rt 967 under 45 feet of floodwaters. Thats right where I live, and it is dry as a frackin' Martini.

I hope/pray your area does get in on a wetter pattern. Sounds terrible there. 

[Jebman]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

I hope/pray your area does get in on a wetter pattern. Sounds terrible there. 

Texas is much drier than Virginia. We are all hoping and praying for rain, because next summer is progged to be worse than 2023's was. Maybe we should get the Native Americans in Oklahoma to come down here and do a three day rain dance festival.

[Daniel Boone]

54 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Texas is much drier than Virginia. We are all hoping and praying for rain, because next summer is progged to be worse than 2023's was. Maybe we should get the Native Americans in Oklahoma to come down here and do a three day rain dance. 

Yeah, makes one want to try anything. l. Maybe a Divine Rod will work. Lol

[Jebman]

30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, makes one want to try anything. l. Maybe a Divine Rod will work. Lol

My favorite place on Earth, is now Cherrapunji in India. Winds transport moisture up against mountains and they get ~1000 inches per year. I would never run out of water.

[WxUSAF]

DT “preliminary” winter forecast is leaning @Jebman-like

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT “preliminary” winter forecast is leaning @Jebman-like

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

A lot of it makes sense, and I agree in large part. But his claim that the autumn has been “much colder” than in recent years doesn’t jive with what I observed last year vs this year. Last autumn was colder. This autumn has been near to slightly above normal. He’s not wrong about the number of coastal storms lately, though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I agree with him that a MEI like this leads cooler than average Winter's. 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

DT “preliminary” winter forecast is leaning @Jebman-like

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

Pretty nice presentation/rationale. He places significant emphasis on the output of the MEI, which I like.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Solid write up by DT. I agree with a lot of his assessment. We have been talking about how this El Niño is not behaving like typical past events at the office which leads me to believe there will likely be some surprises in the future. 
 

As per usual, the first part of late-fall/early-winter will be pretty Ho-hum around here. As the wavelengths shorten, things could get pretty interesting. I do think we get on the board by Christmas, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we got nothing until January.