Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, CAPE said:

We got some over analysis of a super smoothed seasonal tool going on. Doesn't look as 'good' as the last run, so let the hand wringing begin lol. The general idea is still the same- a pretty favorable look for the MA from mid winter on. 

I think December will suck for you guys, but it won't matter given the pattern that should evolve later.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice little -13.58 and descending QBO to go along with our Winter El Nino. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

You can see if this is impactful ahead of time, as Stratosphere warmings lead -AO's by 15-45 days (depending when in the Winter it occurs). 

(time sensitive) 

^last Winter we had a cooler Stratosphere PV and it was +QBO/La Nina. 

[Ji]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK.

negative guy--hard to read his posts

[Ji]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think December will suck for you guys, but it won't matter given the pattern that should evolve later.

all you need in December is a few good days around the holidays(which we never get)

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

all you need in December is a few good days around the holidays(which we never get)

The focus will probably by NYS and NE in December, then the focus will shift southward later in January and into February. 

[DarkSharkWX]

new nmme looks good fwiw

[Eskimo Joe]

^where do I sign?

[WesternFringe]

On 9/29/2023 at 1:18 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Staunton (within Augusta County) has education rates similar to Prince William, Stafford, King George, Richmond area, etc.  Here is a newer, interactive map:

https://statisticalatlas.com/state/Virginia/Educational-Attainment#data-map/county

[raindancewx]

My outlook is out in the general section for anyone curious.

The snow pattern in the analog blend is fascinating, but generally areas in Northern New England, by DC, and then in the deep South did OK to pretty well for snow in the East. Best chances will be pretty late though from what I can see, like late February to early March.

[yoda]

Saw this in the SNE forum 

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR

DJF: 

 

JFM

 

DJF: ENSO 

 

[Weather Will]

WB UKMET ensemble mean Dec- February.

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB UKMET ensemble mean Dec- February.

Looks good. 

[Terpeast]

I think you guys are going to like the analog matches I've found for this winter based on ENSO, PDO, QBO (and whether it is rising or falling), MEI, ONI vs. Nino 4 (where -vp forcing is favored)
 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

At this time 2009, was there any clear indication the upcoming winter had decent upside potential for the Mid Atlantic?

[nw baltimore wx]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

At this time 2009, was there any clear indication the upcoming winter had decent upside potential for the Mid Atlantic?

I feel like there was a lot of optimism. I seem to remember @ORH_wxman, @CoastalWx, and others from NE being in our forum a lot. 

There must have been optimism because I made a 39” snow stake on a snowboard early in December. And yet it still got buried in February.

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I feel like there was a lot of optimism. I seem to remember @ORH_wxman, @CoastalWx, and others from NE being in our forum a lot. 

There must have been optimism because I made a 39” snow stake on a snowboard early in December. And yet it still got buried in February.

How does that vibe compare to what we have now this year?

I remember last year was pretty muted, we knew that it was going to suck (albeit not as hard as it actually did)

[WVclimo]

I also put up a snow stake in my yard in the Fall of 2009.  I think most on the boards  were expecting a big winter.  
 

I remember a post from @Stormchaserchuck1calling for a big snow season for the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley.  At that time he had the reputation as the guy who had forecasted the warmest winter on record a couple of years earlier.  So that lent some confidence to the high expectations.

[nw baltimore wx]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

How does that vibe compare to what we have now this year?

I remember last year was pretty muted, we knew that it was going to suck (albeit not as hard as it actually did)

Just my two cents, but I thought 2009 - 10 was almost a slam dunk.  We had so many pro and quality amateur mets in our forum ( @usedtobe, @Ellinwood, @Ender, @Ian, @Deck Pic , etc) and they were all optimistic.  I am not suggesting that we don't have that quality now, but this year doesn't feel like that to me at all.  The vibe that I get for this year from the quality posters (yourself included) is that we should be provided with opportunity, but whether we score or not is just a guess. 

For me personally, after the last several winters, I have my doubts.  It feels like it's been difficult these past few years to get an area-wide warning event, and that leaves me feeling skeptical. Almost like something has been thrown out of whack and it won't ever be the same. So as much as I recognize that this is potentially the best winter pattern we may experience in a long time, until we actually have a region-wide warning event, I have my doubts. 

But I'll probably get a yardstick just in case! 

[nw baltimore wx]

I forgot about @HM in my posts above.  He was very optimistic about our chances in 09-10 too.

[mattie g]

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

[GramaxRefugee]

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

Take Super-Weenie Pill Supplements .  Makes it so you can recall any snowfall measurement since childhood, but at the expense of forgetting things like your Mom's birthday.  Or maybe even your own.

(P.S.  I'll bet @Jebman was optimistic in 2009)

[Steve25]

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. 

I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. 

On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think. 

[nw baltimore wx]

17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

That's the point!  Everyone was saying it was going to be stellar!

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. 

I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. 

On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think. 

That's absolutely fair to say. 

Let's say we duplicate all the signals we were getting in 2009 into this year.

In any other "normal" time, everyone would be optimistic like @nw baltimore wx just said. 

But after an awful 7 year stretch like the one we had, would we have that same optimism even if the same signals are staring right at us in the face?

I'm not saying that's the case, but like I said in my other post, 09-10 is one of my top analog matches based on nino strength, structure, forcing, QBO, and even the PDO.

[Steve25]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That's absolutely fair to say. 

Let's say we duplicate all the signals we were getting in 2009 into this year.

In any other "normal" time, everyone would be optimistic like @nw baltimore wx just said. 

But after an awful 7 year stretch like the one we had, would we have that same optimism even if the same signals are staring right at us in the face?

I'm not saying that's the case, but like I said in my other post, 09-10 is one of my top analog matches based on nino strength, structure, forcing, QBO, and even the PDO.

Yeah, that's precisely what I'm saying. I don't want to be too repetitive with what you're saying. To answer what you're saying, even if there were the exact same signals and setup, no, I don't think we'd see anywhere close to the same positivity. I think we'd get a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it." 

[mattie g]

28 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. 

I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. 

On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think. 

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

Wow, the 1950s must have been brutal for weenies...

Then came the 1960s.

[mattie g]

43 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, the 1950s must have been brutal for weenies...

Then came the 1960s.

Yeah. The '60s were just so consistent from year to year, and even the lesser years had nearly 20".

The 50s averages were skewed by a dead ratter in 1949-1950 and a bad year in 1950-1951, but there were no truly good years to offset those until you got to 1957-1958 (and by that time the 7-year average timespan had gone).

1. 1967-68: 33.93
2. 1968-69: 32.21
3. 1966-67: 31.78
4. 1965-66: 31.73
5. 1963-64: 29.86
6. 1964-65: 29.80
7. 1969-70: 29.38
8. 1911-12: 28.76
9. 1910-11: 28.47
10. 1970-71: 26.91
11. 1906-07: 26.82
12. 1912-13: 26.69
13. 1971-72: 26.29
14. 1909-10: 26.06
15. 2010-11: 26.00
16. 1940-41: 25.87
17. 1941-42: 25.69
18. 1961-62: 25.50
19. 1962-63: 25.22
20. 1913-14: 24.72

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

All I can remember is Ji stating in mid-January that the winter was a disaster because we only got one HECS.  If that indicates the expectations.

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.