Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[Weather Will]

WB Oct. 1 EURO seasonal

[Chris78]

Looks like a good storm track for us.

But will it be cold enough. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like a good storm track for us.

But will it be cold enough. 

I would say in my casual observation of the weeklies, EURO tends to run too warm in the long range.  The fact it is not torching the winter months at this point is a positive.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like a good storm track for us.

But will it be cold enough. 

Probably a lot of mixed bag events this year. The upside is we won't be dry as a bone in the boreal forests of Canada. Should mitigate the wildfire risk next spring.

[Terpeast]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably a lot of mixed bag events this year. The upside is we won't be dry as a bone in the boreal forests of Canada. Should mitigate the wildfire risk next spring.

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. 

But I don’t like this trend. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. 

But I don’t like this trend. 

i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up

[mattie g]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. 

But I don’t like this trend. 

What trend?

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up

Yeah I’m not worried yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on for the next 6 weeks or so.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What trend?

Good discussion in the main El Nino thread under weather and forecasting discussion. Bluewave is dropping value bombs over there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What trend?

We're bleeding in the wrong direction and fast. Classic Mid Atlantic.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Oct NAO has negative correlation to DJFM. It's the only month of the year/12 where that is the case. PNA has +correlation. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB Oct. 1 EURO seasonal

 

Until we have a few dry months then they take all that green precip off.. lol

[Ji]

for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run

Can’t wait for E7 to nail November and December then E20 bring it home for the rest of winter to get us our very realistic total of 90 inches.

[aldie 22]

Case closed

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

What trend?

We got some over analysis of a super smoothed seasonal tool going on. Doesn't look as 'good' as the last run, so let the hand wringing begin lol. The general idea is still the same- a pretty favorable look for the MA from mid winter on. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1710048754655473884?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A- more analysis 

[raindancewx]

You guys will do fine for snow this year. I just don't expect too much cold even in the snowier part of the pattern. I'm expecting some pretty big ice storms across large areas of the US as well. I think you'll have a lot of setups in the wetter systems where it is cold enough for part of the storm, but not the entirety. The good news is I think a few of them will go rain to snow, which at least to me is better than snow to rain.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions. 

But yet the sensational news outlets are calling for Super Elnio do they even know what that is?

[Ji]

We got some over analysis of a super smoothed seasonal tool going on. Doesn't look as 'good' as the last run, so let the hand wringing begin lol. The general idea is still the same- a pretty favorable look for the MA from mid winter on. 

The euro did show a west migration of the el nino anomalies for jfm

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

19 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. 

But I don’t like this trend. 

Latest Euro monthlies look pretty zonal with a lot of Pacific puke to be honest.

[WxUSAF]

I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. 

That’s what I’ve been leaning towards. I’ll do a full outlook in November when I get next month’s round of data and tighten up my analog group. 

[Round Hill WX]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. 

The take-away with the EC/Cansips for DJF is it's the best look for winter we've had in several years. Not excited yet but if the general idea continues into November I'm going to get that "special feeling" about winter 23/24. 

[WxUSAF]

Roundy’s MJO based plots look solid for December and February 

https://twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1710278381260927120?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest Euro monthlies look pretty zonal with a lot of Pacific puke to be honest.

I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK.

[Maestrobjwa]

22 hours ago, Ji said:

for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run

It's too early for these bars man!! Lolol

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK.

You have to understand that EJ will always identify even one pixel of perceived negative data and make sweeping statements about the negative results for us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You have to understand that EJ will always identify even one pixel of perceived negative data and make sweeping statements about the negative results for us.

Well, I probably would too if I lived down there....even up here its getting tougher to remain objective....last good season for me was 2017-2018.