Ji Posted September 26, 2023 Author Share Posted September 26, 2023 9 hours ago, CAPE said: CPC/NCEP still expecting a moderate to strong Nino for the winter months fwiw. The hyperbolic super Nino talk comes mostly from agenda driven twitter randos, and the forum favorite daily post limited member. The radical lol Washington post is the biggest culprithttps://x.com/capitalweather/status/1706783085981778187?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ji said: The woke Washington post is the biggest culprithttps://x.com/capitalweather/status/1706783085981778187?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA you charlie? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 14 hours ago, Ji said: The radical lol Washington post is the biggest culprithttps://x.com/capitalweather/status/1706783085981778187?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Good lord what a terrible clickbait article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Good lord what a terrible clickbait article. I had to search for the actual press release. Despite the hindcast successes, I am skeptical of a climate model for seasonal forecasts. https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I had to search for the actual press release. Despite the hindcast successes, I am skeptical of a climate model for seasonal forecasts. https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter You would think CWG would know better than to post an article like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You would think CWG would know better than to post an article like this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 On 9/19/2023 at 1:15 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Might as well have posted this ... 3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 I am heartened to see comments about the "Woke" Wa. Po. and CWG. I was a well known contributor to CWG 10 years ago. Jason knew me very well by my username "Augusta Jim". We had occasional exchanges.. I even won a CWG sweatshirt by being the only one to identify a pattern by a synoptic map............................... That's all history as I grew weary of the daily nonsense with AGW and the afternoon loon with Wa.Po. oversight. Steve Scolnick and I used to lock horns nearly every afternoon. What a thrill! 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Stop with the 'woke' crap. It is used as a political pejorative and has no place on the weather side. Take that shit elsewhere. 24 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 It's hard to imagine the -2.5 PDO will overpower with stronger El Nino conditions now developing in the subsurface. If the subsurface continues to warm to 7c and holding, we should have constant variations of +PNA. Less than 7c subsurface and I say we are still in "Weak Nino" impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 "AGW nonsense" This is a science based forum. Political opinions are irrelevant here. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Yeah, everyone knows I'm banned from PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, everyone knows I'm banned from PR. PR doesn't exist anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 5 hours ago, stormy said: I am heartened to see comments about the "Woke" Wa. Po. and CWG. I was a well known contributor to CWG 10 years ago. Jason knew me very well by my username "Augusta Jim". We had occasional exchanges.. I even won a CWG sweatshirt by being the only one to identify a pattern by a synoptic map............................... That's all history as I grew weary of the daily nonsense with AGW and the afternoon loon with Wa.Po. oversight. Steve Scolnick and I used to lock horns nearly every afternoon. What a thrill! lol keep this shit in Augusta County - it isn't needed or wanted here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 28, 2023 Author Share Posted September 28, 2023 CPC/NCEP still expecting a moderate to strong Nino for the winter months fwiw. The hyperbolic super Nino talk comes mostly from agenda driven twitter randos, and the forum favorite daily post limited member.Lol you started all this. I was just giving you proof 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol you started all this. I was just giving you proof The CWG article was an example of hyperbolic clickbait. 'woke' and 'radical WaPo' was all you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Ok everyone enough with the woke debate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I thought this was an interesting blurb at the bottom of this article from a few days ago: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Ok everyone enough with the woke debate SIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I just woke up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 13 hours ago, CAPE said: PR doesn't exist anymore. Could have said that right after Maria, but I was there last year, and the rumor of its demise has been greatly exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Need someone to talk me off the cliff of this being a raging east based El Nino with sustained -PDO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Need someone to talk me off the cliff of this being a raging east based El Nino with sustained -PDO this winter. Predicted SST anomalies weaken some in the east/expand westward- takes on a more basin wide look further into winter. Just a couple seasonal models ofc. Need to see what the updated runs look like. PDO is what it is, but there are hints it may be less negative going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Predicted SST anomalies weaken some in the east/expand westward- takes on a more basin wide look further into winter. Just a couple seasonal models ofc. Need to see what the updated runs look like. PDO is what it is, but there are hints it may be less negative going forward. the PDO and PNA aren't always a perfect match... easier to get a -PDO/-PNA in a Nina and easier to get a +PDO/+PNA in a Nino, but there are deviations also, given how west-leaning the forcing has been so far, and considering we've seen significant cooling in Nino 1+2, the transition to a more basin-wide event has been occurring and should continue. the super east-based stuff doesn't really correspond to what we'll see this winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I don't even think this will get to super in terms of ONI... the Nino has stagnated over the last couple of days. the MEI continues to lag far behind in weak territory, which is a better representation of how the Nino is actually influencing the atmosphere. I don't anticipate canonical super Nino impacts even if we do get the three trimonthly ONIs of 2.0C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I don't even think this will get to super in terms of ONI... the Nino has stagnated over the last couple of days. the MEI continues to lag far behind in weak territory, which is a better representation of how the Nino is actually influencing the atmosphere. I don't anticipate canonical super Nino impacts even if we do get the three trimonthly ONIs of 2.0C Moderate to maybe low end strong seems most likely at this juncture based on the current metrics/historical analogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Need someone to talk me off the cliff of this being a raging east based El Nino with sustained -PDO this winter. Easy delete Eric Webbs twitter 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Someone been a little quiet in the main thread lately. Probably poring over X in search of some super Nino backup. Post with multiple link dump coming soon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Someone been a little quiet in the main thread lately. Probably poring over X in search of some super Nino backup. Post with multiple link dump coming soon. PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: PAUL ROUNDY SUPER NINO!!!!! Reading his post then griteater posting that Roundy thread right after. lol he got caught stealing on that one. No credit given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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