Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, Pixee said:

HEE HEE. No need to panic, we got this. SOLD!!!!

 

Might as well have posted this ...

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The pattern is definitely wet. I can envision a GOA low or +PNA coinciding with developing coastal/SE low's. I saw that trend last Winter, and it has continued until now, and going forward. -PNA's I think would be drier in the Wintertime. 

[CAPE]

On 9/19/2023 at 3:36 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The pattern is definitely wet. I can envision a GOA low or +PNA coinciding with developing coastal/SE low's. I saw that trend last Winter, and it has continued until now, and going forward. -PNA's I think would be drier in the Wintertime. 

Tends to happen in a Nino. Need just enough cold concurrent with. In a Nina like last winter, the subtleties in the longwave pattern are often 'off' enough to screw us, even when we see the guidance advertising an apparently classic -NAO for example. Best shot during a Nina imo is a transient period with +PNA/-EPO ridge to deliver legit Polar air with a carved out trough along the east coast, and hope for a well timed wave to track along the baroclinic boundary. Risk is too far offshore/late developing, leaving the area cold and dry. This has worked out well esp for eastern areas the past few Ninas though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest WB EURO weeklies, my first digital .1 of the season!

[Its a Breeze]

Model agreement

[Rhino16]

8 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

Model agreement

Instructor pulled this up in class, and everyone started applauding, it was funny.

[Miss Pixee]

More proof of upcoming blizzards...

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/19/2023 at 6:06 PM, CAPE said:

Tends to happen in a Nino. Need just enough cold concurrent with. In a Nina like last winter, the subtleties in the longwave pattern are often 'off' enough to screw us, even when we see the guidance advertising an apparently classic -NAO for example. Best shot during a Nina imo is a transient period with +PNA/-EPO ridge to deliver legit Polar air with a carved out trough along the east coast, and hope for a well timed wave to track along the baroclinic boundary. Risk is too far offshore/late developing, leaving the area cold and dry. This has worked out well esp for eastern areas the past few Ninas though.

I think we are in a "SE High pressure tendency for amplification"-state so a -PNA would really not be good for any snow right now. +PNA or -EPO is almost definitely needed for snow chances, so it is a good thing we are in an El Nino right now  (The Atlantic has proven not able to overcome bad Pacific conditions since about 2013- (Pacific is about 4x greater correlation for cold than the Atlantic in that time so legit El Nino here is what's needed)).   Both the High's and the low's are amplifying. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

So how do we avoid a 1997 disaster?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[frd]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

I am very hopeful regarding a - QBO, but worried about the water vapor release from the erruption of Honga Tonga messing things up and cooling the PV starting in late Fall. . 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB CFVS2 seasonal for Dec.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB CFVS2 seasonal for Dec.

Cherry picking a single run of the CFS is worth less than usual with seasonal models. It runs so frequently it changes like the wind. TT does the average of the last 12 runs. For the past couple weeks it has looked more Nina- just invert everything on the panel above.

[Eskimo Joe]

15 hours ago, frd said:

 

 

I am very hopeful regarding a - QBO, but worried about the water vapor release from the erruption of Honga Tonga messing things up and cooling the PV starting in late Fall. . 

 

Just prepare for a dumpster fire of a winter and be happy with whatever we get. 

[TowsonWeather]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just prepare for a dumpster fire of a winter and be happy with whatever we get. 

Spoken like an experienced DMV resident.

[Eskimo Joe]

From the main El Nino thread in Weather Forecasting & Discussion.

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter

I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

 

[CAPE]

11 hours ago, CAPE said:

Cherry picking a single run of the CFS is worth less than usual with seasonal models. It runs so frequently it changes like the wind. TT does the average of the last 12 runs. For the past couple weeks it has looked more Nina- just invert everything on the panel above.

This is a more realistic depiction of what the CFS is currently advertising for December. Not saying it has the right idea, but you can't glean anything useful about the potential longwave pattern a couple months out from a single run of the CFS.

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a more realistic depiction of what the CFS is currently advertising for December. Not saying it has the right idea, but you can't glean anything useful about the potential longwave pattern a couple months out from a single run of the CFS.

the CFS is just so bad. even the averaged plots on TT flip from week to week 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CFS is just so bad. even the averaged plots on TT flip from week to week 

True, but less noisy than looking at every run. Goes back and forth every 10 days to 2 weeks typically. CFS is a somewhat of a useful tool maybe a month out.

[Eskimo Joe]

Eric Webb really hammering the East based El Nino hard on Twitter. Then again, he lived in the desert southwest.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/24/2023 at 1:53 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

The last El NIno with -QBO before that was 09-10. Then 91-92, 86-87. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I agree with Terpeast's assessment that we are >25-30% likely to see a blizzard this winter or "major snowstorm (>18")" (minus wind). STJ is really juicy starting last December. If we can get that GOA low or +PNA to sit for 10-15 days, it's bomb's away. I don't see the Fall pattern breaking this wetter than average tendency in the pattern.  The only problem I see is N. Pacific low's could be transitory.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb really hammering the East based El Nino hard on Twitter. Then again, he lived in the desert southwest.

Could it be that...snowman is his burner???? 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree with Terpeast's assessment that we are >25-30% likely to see a blizzard this winter or "major snowstorm (>18")" (minus wind). STJ is really juicy starting last December. If we can get that GOA low or +PNA to sit for 10-15 days, it's bomb's away. I don't see the Fall pattern breaking this wetter than average tendency in the pattern.  The only problem I see is N. Pacific low's could be transitory.  

Good point about PNA . The PDO may mess with any sustainable +PNA. Seems we just never get Driver's to sync and align for a decent Winter in the East anymore. 

     If the Nino becomes predominant Modoki and HLB is dominate we should still manage half way decent at least, even with the PDO issue. 

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb really hammering the East based El Nino hard on Twitter. Then again, he lived in the desert southwest.

 

[CAPE]

CPC/NCEP still expecting a moderate to strong Nino for the winter months fwiw. The hyperbolic super Nino talk comes mostly from agenda driven twitter randos, and the forum favorite daily post limited member.

[brooklynwx99]

not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value...

1972: +1.8C

1982: +1.9C

1997: +2.3C

2015: +1.9C

2023: +0.4C

if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere

this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI:

2009: +0.5C

2006: +0.6C

2004: +0.7C

2002: +0.8C

1994: +0.9C

I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

[brooklynwx99]

nothing says "classic EP Nino" like a persistent black hole of subsidence over South America and the eastern Pacific!

[brooklynwx99]

in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP