Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[WxUSAF]

Mild December is standard Nino, but those H5 charts for Jan-Mar have cross polar flow looks with the PNA extending up across the Arctic. Hopefully we can time up some legit cold with a rocking STJ.

[Weather Will]

At least after the spring barrier, the summer haze, and now the fall fog of forecasting, we are still looking better than last year at this time.  Time flies, and we soon will be complaining about the winter failures, the warm base state, etc. in a blink of the eye.  Hopefully somewhere in this upcoming winter season there will be at least one storm that will bring joy for everyone.

[George001]

I would be excited if I lived in the mid Atlantic for this coming winter. I’m fairly down on winter for my area in SNE, but I think you guys have a good chance of doing well relative to climo. Super nino with a juiced STJ and some blocking is a good snow pattern for the mid Atlantic. Cold will be tough to get with a nino this strong, but you guys just need things to line up once (like 2015-2016 which I think is a decent analog for this winter). 

[brooklynwx99]

new ONI at +1.1 for JJA, but the relative ONI is only +0.57, which is a difference of over half a degree! 

so although this has breached moderate territory, this is still acting more like a weak event... encouraging for winter

[MDstorm]

12 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

Aleutian low and blocking up top.  Very encouraging from this vantage point.  

[North Balti Zen]

 

[CAPE]

Pretty sure the JMA only goes into December this run, so that's really a look at the advertised pattern for Fall and the very beginning of winter.

eta- https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs have a much improved h5 look for December. Normal/slightly below temps. No need to mention Jan and Feb at this juncture 

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pretty sure the JMA only goes into December this run, so that's really a look at the advertised pattern for Fall and the very beginning of winter.

eta- https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

the plot that griteater posted is the DJF mean  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the plot that griteater posted is the DJF mean  

I see it now. Have to click on 'Warm/ Cold Season Prediction' on that link. I was on the 90 day.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong El Nino and Strong -QBO is about a 1/25 year type happening. Obviously, there is a chance that it doesn't connect perfectly, but it should be interesting

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[yoda]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

 

 

[Miss Pixee]

Excited for the possibilities this winter, either way. I think some folks make snow too personal and find anecdotes to whine/panic about. Screw panic. I don't care or agonize about past snowstorms either. That snow is in your toilet, your teakettle or your swimming pool right now. Get over it and look forward to the future. Can't speak for everyone's region but it's not like we have to wait 20 years a pop to see the white stuff.

This probably won't be a popular take but I've been wanting to say this for some time. I generally like to lurk for information as a weather geek. Nature always has levels of chaos we can't predict. If we 'knew' how much snow we'd get every year, what would there be to talk about? Just post up totals and be done. The mid atlantic has some dynamics that keep everyone guessing. Time to start considering it a blessing not a curse. If you want wall to wall boring snow move up to northern latitudes. I have people up there that whine about too much snow. And when it's gone they don't miss it.

The 'snow for the sake of snow' has limits. When it sits around too long it gets dirty and funky (or turns to ice rinks)...y'all know what I mean. Maybe that turns some folk on but it doesn't work for me. I like to take pictures of the fresh stuff and the moody skies. I record every storm in my area, big or small...it's fun. So relax, go for the ride and hope for the best.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just get me climo and no major torches (60 degrees plus for days on end). That's all I'm asking. Anything more is gravy.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Going to get a yucky PDO number after the N. Pacific pattern in September. We are not doing better than splitting -PNA's and +PNA's right now. With Nino 1+2 possibly peaking, it's not like a stronger wave of El Nino is on the way, possibly.. That may depress some of the +PNA potential for the Winter, giving us something like neutral or mixed. It's still early though, I just think this pattern needs to change and it's not, and we may need a stronger variable like a re-up of El Nino.  MEI at +0.3 or something is a good reflection. 

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Going to get a yucky PDO number after the N. Pacific pattern in September. We are not doing better than splitting -PNA's and +PNA's right now. With Nino 1+2 possibly peaking, it's not like a stronger wave of El Nino is on the way, possibly.. That may depress some of the +PNA potential for the Winter, giving us something like neutral or mixed. It's still early though, I just think this pattern needs to change and it's not, and we may need a stronger variable like a re-up of El Nino.  MEI at +0.3 or something is a good reflection. 

There goes the neighborhood. South Central Texas will remain brown as a Thanksgiving Turkey well into 2024 then.

I'd pay much higher taxes for torrential rain to get those aquifers back up!

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/7/2023 at 9:48 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strong El Nino and Strong -QBO is about a 1/25 year type happening. Obviously, there is a chance that it doesn't connect perfectly, but it should be interesting

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

-QBO is favorable for cooler weather, correct?

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

-QBO is favorable for cooler weather, correct?

Hard to say. Very small sample size, nino + neg qbo is a rare combo. Last time it happened was 2009-10, and before that 86-87 and 91-92. Two big winters, and one ratter. The ratter may be an outlier because of pinatubo.

From my research notes:

Qbo and MA snowfall correlation is much weaker than expected, but could make the case that -QBO leads to more blocking + biggest KU snowstorms. But a +QBO doesn't necessarily mean lack of snowfall especially if it's not a nina.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Hard to say. Very small sample size, nino + neg qbo is a rare combo. Last time it happened was 2009-10, and before that 86-87 and 91-92. Two big winters, and one ratter. The ratter may be an outlier because of pinatubo.

From my research notes:

Qbo and MA snowfall correlation is much weaker than expected, but could make the case that -QBO leads to more blocking + biggest KU snowstorms. But a +QBO doesn't necessarily mean lack of snowfall especially if it's not a nina.

Thanks for the insight. I appreciate the analysis.

[stormy]

With the CPC update this morning, region 3.4 is now +1.6.  Nov. thru January is now 71% of 3.4 region +1.5 or more...................... This is excellent for my 88% likelihood of a winter of above normal snowfall west of the Blue Ridge at +1.46 or more.

My 24"  40 year average is now at 25" - 40".

[MN Transplant]

Good thread 

https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1702378818693112236?s=46&t=bA1Os5w_10i9PfsurY28aw

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/14/2023 at 10:13 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

-QBO is favorable for cooler weather, correct?

-QBO increases 10mb warming, as does El Nino, so together they are a good 10mb warming signal. These Stratosphere warmings often downwell to -AO. 

[clskinsfan]

On 9/14/2023 at 10:26 AM, Terpeast said:

Hard to say. Very small sample size, nino + neg qbo is a rare combo. Last time it happened was 2009-10, and before that 86-87 and 91-92. Two big winters, and one ratter. The ratter may be an outlier because of pinatubo.

From my research notes:

Qbo and MA snowfall correlation is much weaker than expected, but could make the case that -QBO leads to more blocking + biggest KU snowstorms. But a +QBO doesn't necessarily mean lack of snowfall especially if it's not a nina.

I am on a cruise out of Norfolk next weekend. So I have been looking at the Northern Hemisphere maps for weeks. And yes I am a weenie as you all know. But after watching it for weeks one thing looks clear to me. We will have bombs running up the coast this year. Doesnt mean DC (the city) has a good winter. But we are all going to have chances this winter. I would bet my lifes savings on it. And once again, I am a weenie. But just go back and look at the flow over the past month. Stuff is going to want to come up the coast all winter long....Whatever just drunk posting. 

[Cobalt]

[Eskimo Joe]

^that's not an encouraging map

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Jebman]

On 9/16/2023 at 8:13 PM, clskinsfan said:

I am on a cruise out of Norfolk next weekend. So I have been looking at the Northern Hemisphere maps for weeks. And yes I am a weenie as you all know. But after watching it for weeks one thing looks clear to me. We will have bombs running up the coast this year. Doesnt mean DC (the city) has a good winter. But we are all going to have chances this winter. I would bet my lifes savings on it. And once again, I am a weenie. But just go back and look at the flow over the past month. Stuff is going to want to come up the coast all winter long....Whatever just drunk posting. 

We. Have. A. Winnah.

You got that correct. This, will be a low-sun season unlike any other. DC is positioned to get demolished severely by snow this winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Miss Pixee]

HEE HEE. No need to panic, we got this. SOLD!!!!