Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

My comment was on the analog map you posted not the blog.  And it wasn't meant as a critique of you, the best SST analogs often are useless in a vacuum since we've had radically different outcomes from some similar enso events.  I wasn't saying your forecast is useless...just that list of enso analogs by itself is, in terms of predicting snowfall here which is what 99% reading this care about.  

Well, its useless as a seasonal forecast map....sure. But within the context of a blog focused on ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific, its fairly illuminating.

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, its useless as a seasonal forecast map....sure. But within the context of a blog focused on ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific, its fairly illuminating.

 

I just added this to my post above, I wasn't even aware there was a blog link, I saw the map and thought the text above was just the headline... sorry that was my mistake and caused me to take the map out of context, which was again my mistake.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I just added this to my post above, I wasn't even aware there was a blog link, I saw the map and thought the text above was just the headline... sorry 

No worries....I just like to attach a graphic to the link, but its dangerous to do that today because no one reads. lol

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is this what people felt about 02-03 in the wake of 01-02?

No. But I think the base state has changed quite a bit in the past 20+ years. Especially south of 40. I will take a Nino every single time. Because it almost always ends up above normal snow here. But that usually comes from bombs. And it may be that is the only way we get snow anymore down here. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is this what people felt about 02-03 in the wake of 01-02?

I remember that I was pretty excited about 2002/3 pretty early on in the fall that year.  There were quite a few signs that the enso was going to continue to evolve into one centered fairly far west, but this year I am more cautious because of the fact the north pac basin and atlantic are also on fire and I am just not sure what all that heat is going to do to the pattern.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No worries....I just like to attach a graphic to the link, but its dangerous to do that today because no one reads. lol

Oh I'll read, probably way too much, on anything remotely related to this...actually am reading it now, just didn't notice the link.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh I'll read, probably way too much, on anything remotely related to this...actually am reading it now, just didn't notice the link.  

Yea, you guys will....but folks on social media and the mainstream won't, not that they care enough for it to matter. lol

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember that I was pretty excited about 2002/3 pretty early on in the fall that year.  There were quite a few signs that the enso was going to continue to evolve into one centered fairly far west, but this year I am more cautious because of the fact the north pac basin and atlantic are also on fire and I am just not sure what all that heat is going to do to the pattern.  

I have mixed feelings on this year, but given the propensity for the main tropical forcing to be centered far west of Ninos of this type along with the -QBO in place, we should see some good spells of blocking

given the strong +ENSO, the favored SE trough instead of SE ridge will make blocking far more effective than it was last winter

I would definitely be more optimistic than pessimistic down by you guys. STJ will be rocking, and Ninos this strong are always good for a nuke or two in the winter

[mattie g]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No worries....I just like to attach a graphic to the link, but its dangerous to do that today because no one reads. lol

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

53-54,and 10-11 show up a lot 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

53-54,and 10-11 show up a lot 

09-10, you mean....

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

09-10, you mean....

I see both 09-10 and 10-11 elements 

I’m wary of the huge snow years but still gotta analyze the season as a whole 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I see both 09-10 and 10-11 elements 

I’m wary of the huge snow years but still gotta analyze the season as a whole 

Yea, you know how to interpret that, though...doesn't mean 60" or bust for DC, but rather we should have favorable interludes.

You and KA have been doing this a long time...always look forward to the report.

[MN Transplant]

I don’t post in the long range thread because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you all do, but I have to say that while the globe is clearly warming and things are changing, we are less than 10 years removed from a couple of really cold and pretty snowy winters.  Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015.  The climate is changing but all is not lost.

[brooklynwx99]

38 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don’t post in the long range thread because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you all do, but I have to say that while the globe is clearly warming and things are changing, we are less than 10 years removed from a couple of really cold and pretty snowy winters.  Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015.  The climate is changing but all is not lost.

the people who are in the colder anomalies get blasted... look at the west over the last couple of years. it's just that if you're not, good luck

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

 Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015.  

With a +NAO (1.32) too...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Days like today where it casually makes it to 84F, makes me nervous about the Winter. Snow could possibly melt fast, although I think troughs could produce snowstorms.. 

edit: the pattern is more -PNA today, like March 2023. We need to erase these Aleutian-ridge blips completely going into the Winter, because that is the more constant force right now (-NAO's = Pacific warm air everytime). 

[George001]

5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I see both 09-10 and 10-11 elements 

I’m wary of the huge snow years but still gotta analyze the season as a whole 

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close. 

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close. 

you're in the MA subforum

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out. 

In other news, Nino 3.4 has just broken +1.5 

[Bob Chill]

16 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I don’t post in the long range thread because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you all do, but I have to say that while the globe is clearly warming and things are changing, we are less than 10 years removed from a couple of really cold and pretty snowy winters.  Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015.  The climate is changing but all is not lost.

 I've been rippin and readin a little lately but have no thoughts other than climo enso stuff so lurking only.

 Since 2015, it seems remarkably hard to NOT get heavily modified continental air in here.  Models keep showing the express 7+ days out but the carve slows down and by the time the cold pool gets here, it's west or even sw flow in the mids or uppers. I can't even count how many times really. We all know how well stale air works here with a synoptic system lol. 

Imo- it's just a cycle. We see it all the time. Train tracks set up and don't want to leave no matter what the euro says hahaha. Imho- much of our winter's snow fate will depend on things nobody can see beyond a week. Digital cold air does not make it snow. We need a fresh feed at the start of synoptic development. Elusive as hell last few years... always sloppy stale mixed messes with no feed when it matters.  Iirc, vast majority of "rain when it should snow" lately is likely a byproduct of slow moving stale air patterns with blocking. The brunt of the cold keeps focusing on the MW and hanging around.  The MA can't survive like that. We need a banana. Especially in a Nino. When those show up during snow season, so will I. I'm done trackin mix lines other than real time.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out. 

In other news, Nino 3.4 has just broken +1.5 

Getting warm after huge storms is pretty normal. Especially with Archambault events. Our biggies favor the flip from neg to pos NAO. Hard to stay cold on the heels. 

[Its a Breeze]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out.

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false.

Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

 

[stormy]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 I've been rippin and readin a little lately but have no thoughts other than climo enso stuff so lurking only.

 Since 2015, it seems remarkably hard to NOT get heavily modified continental air in here.  Models keep showing the express 7+ days out but the carve slows down and by the time the cold pool gets here, it's west or even sw flow in the mids or uppers. I can't even count how many times really. We all know how well stale air works here with a synoptic system lol. 

Imo- it's just a cycle. We see it all the time. Train tracks set up and don't want to leave no matter what the euro says hahaha. Imho- much of our winter's snow fate will depend on things nobody can see beyond a week. Digital cold air does not make it snow. We need a fresh feed at the start of synoptic development. Elusive as hell last few years... always sloppy stale mixed messes with no feed when it matters.  Iirc, vast majority of "rain when it should snow" lately is likely a byproduct of slow moving stale air patterns with blocking. The brunt of the cold keeps focusing on the MW and hanging around.  The MA can't survive like that. We need a banana. Especially in a Nino. When those show up during snow season, so will I. I'm done trackin mix lines other than real time.

 

 

Hey Bob!  Really good to see you back in the loop!    Hopefully you'll hang around through the winter.......

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, George001 said:

2010-2011>>>>>>>>2009-2010, It’s not even close. 

Bro the Boxing Day 2010 event was a heart wrenching thing. It was almost as bad a Snowquestor.

[George001]

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bro the Boxing Day 2010 event was a heart wrenching thing. It was almost as bad a Snowquestor.

I posted that in the wrong sub forum lol, where I live it was the exact opposite. Boxing Day 2010 was a huge blizzard in SNE, and so was snowquestor. 2009-2010 was the heart wrencher for us. You guys in the mid atl got buried while we got skunked via a couple storms hitting a brick wall and sliding OTS from the blocking, and then we had the snowicane which had that almost straight N/S gradient. It’s interesting how 2009-2010 were almost the exact opposite, 2009-2010 buried you guys and skunked us while 2010-2011 buried us and skunked you guys. 

[George001]

With the super nino coming I could see a similar scenario to 2009-2010 if there is a lot of blocking. Probably a warmer version, being that the nino will be quite a bit stronger and climate change, but same general idea. Not quite 2009-2010 level, but decently AN snowfall departures in the mid Atlantic while my area in SNE is well BN.

[Stormfly]

6 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false.

Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

 

We had fog and no snow other than piles from plowing Christmas 2009.  Could not believe we went from solid 20" on the ground to nothing by the 25th.

End of Jan storm brushed us.  But Feb certainly made up for it.  I remember it was well into March 2010 and getting my diesel four wheeler high centered on a drift back in the riding trails.  Between the tall spruces, the damaged limbs suggested 20 foot plus drifts.  That was legit snow shoe required weather, rather rare for these parts.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false.

Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

 

02-03 was the real Winter, 4 months of constant snowcover.  I remember seeing the grass 3 days after each of the 3 blizzards in 09-10, That's all. I feel we are in a similar pattern to 09-10, as it is 94F in N. Virginia with a pretty good -NAO today. 

[midatlanticweather]

If we do not get some ocean normalization, that heat could really hurt.. BUT, we get some super cold with such a contrasting sea, who knows. Speculation the last few years has been nothing but heartbreak! I have learned many other things that have failed when I felt they should not have!