Terpeast Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface.. I think the subsurface has bottomed out for now. It might warm a bit again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think the subsurface has bottomed out for now. It might warm a bit again Yeah, see how this warming is correlating to +PNA too in 3-11 days! https://ibb.co/0cVDN9G This, I really strongly believe is the key to the Winter (how the subsurface does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 23, 2023 Author Share Posted August 23, 2023 Hope you're right Chuck.Sidenote. Ken Clark hates jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, see how this warming is correlating to +PNA too in 3-11 days! https://ibb.co/0cVDN9G This, I really strongly believe is the key to the Winter (how the subsurface does). I wonder how many times the idea "everything is perfect but its just not cold enough" will be realized this winter. If that happens we are just swimming upstream no matter what set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Since 2013, we have had +NAO Winter's almost every year. Since 2016, we have had -PNA almost every Winter. Fix these indexes, and it will be cold enough to snow.. Our "swimming upstream" will come from -PNA, if the ENSO subsurface doesn't stay warm. legit El Nino/-QBO should break the pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I wonder how many times the idea "everything is perfect but its just not cold enough" will be realized this winter. If that happens we are just swimming upstream no matter what set up A very real possibility. Just look at the northern hemisphere sst map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: A very real possibility. Just look at the northern hemisphere sst map lots of underwater volcanoes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lots of underwater volcanoes yeah, thanks to those pesky volcanoes, we’d lose feb 87 if it happened now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Here you go guys https://ibb.co/gSN5F7W Let's hope this continues into Winter. The 15-day GFS ensemble does show a -PNA, which makes the medium/long term closer to neutral, backing my ~0.4c El Nino subsurface index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Latest CFS runs think we are heading into a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS runs think we are heading into a Nina. Jorts and Natty Light for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS runs think we are heading into a Nina. I’m fine with punting Dec to get a good Jan and feb, but this kind of map is exactly what I’m concerned about with ssts on fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Aleutian ridge with a strong Nino? Sure Jan. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Aleutian ridge with a strong Nino? Sure Jan. It happened in 65-66. They seem heavily biased to what happens "in the now", as Day 15 models are showing a strong -PNA developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 12 hours ago, Terpeast said: I’m fine with punting Dec to get a good Jan and feb, but this kind of map is exactly what I’m concerned about with ssts on fire If it's august and we're already punting December then we're fooked bigly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it's august and we're already punting December then we're fooked bigly. We're not punting anything. FFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: We're not punting anything. FFS. Yeah, I didn’t intend for anyone to read as such into what I said about Dec. Nino winters tend to lean backloaded anyway. What does concern me is the warm ssts across the board. Where and how can we get enough cold air if our average 850s is -4 in mid winter, and ssts are +2-4 above normal? Pretty small margin for error there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I didn’t intend for anyone to read as such into what I said about Dec. Nino winters tend to lean backloaded anyway. What does concern me is the warm ssts across the board. Where and how can we get enough cold air if our average 850s is -4 in mid winter, and ssts are +2-4 above normal? Pretty small margin for error there. No doubt that we have very little wiggle room. I just choose not to get worked up over something that hasn't happened yet because...we just can't know. We've sucked so hard recently that having another sucky winter would result in a "Meh" from me. It would be annoying and I'd be really disappointed for my kids not getting to get some actual snow days and play in the snow, but I'd just move on and hope things were better next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 is this what people felt about 02-03 in the wake of 01-02? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 My prior for this winter is that there will be a lot of mild air around and probably a lot of precipitation. If we get a snowy winter, my assumption is that it will be with a solid/maybe epic 2-3 week period and if we’re really lucky we maybe get 2 of those periods. Obviously favoring Jan-Feb for cold and snowy periods. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: No doubt that we have very little wiggle room. I just choose not to get worked up over something that hasn't happened yet because...we just can't know. We've sucked so hard recently that having another sucky winter would result in a "Meh" from me. It would be annoying and I'd be really disappointed for my kids not getting to get some actual snow days and play in the snow, but I'd just move on and hope things were better next year! I want my kid to see some actual snow, too. That actually accumulates! Not just snow TV that doesn't stick. I'm not all doom and gloom yet, I'm actually cautiously optimistic about this upcoming winter. And I've been working on a statistical analysis on what we can expect from future winters, and the picture being painted doesn't seem as terrible as we're making it out to be. I've used 2 methods to arrive at basically the same result, which is a 16% reduction in our average snowfall... even that seems like a lot more than what we've been getting the last 7-8 years. I keep saying that I'll post it this summer, but that's probably going to have to wait until fall. Just don't have the time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I didn’t intend for anyone to read as such into what I said about Dec. Nino winters tend to lean backloaded anyway. What does concern me is the warm ssts across the board. Where and how can we get enough cold air if our average 850s is -4 in mid winter, and ssts are +2-4 above normal? Pretty small margin for error there. Apologies for mis-reading you. Haven't had a snow storm greater than 6" since we moved to Baltimore County in August 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Apologies for mis-reading you. Haven't had a snow storm greater than 6" since we moved to Baltimore County in August 2016. Hey it’s all good no worries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 9:42 PM, Ji said: Sidenote. Ken Clark hates jb I replied to your comment on twitter, but I agree with Ken, JB changed significantly from back when they worked together. I actually had some personal correspondence with JB back when I was a meteorology student at PSU. I can't say if he has changed personally, I never had a negative interaction with him personally, he was always friendly, willing to answer questions and help me out. My issues with him are not personal in any way, he was never anything but nice to me. But, over the years, I disagree with your assessment that he hasn't changed much. Back in the early 2000's, yes JB already has a snow bias and a tendency to gravitate towards the extreme, but his forecasts and blog posts were mostly grounded in sound reasonable science, and he rarely went off on total political driven rants. But over the years that has changed, his posts are more and more political driven, he seems angry at times which was never his MO back in the day, and his forecasts often seem to be based more on some crazy unproven theory in a quest to justify his political stance rather than sound meteorology. In short he has gone way off the deep end. And it must be extra difficult for those who knew him personally before he got this way. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 21 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS runs think we are heading into a Nina. PAC base state FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather That's pretty useless as a seasonal predictive tool since it includes some of our snowiest and least snowy winters lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: My prior for this winter is that there will be a lot of mild air around and probably a lot of precipitation. If we get a snowy winter, my assumption is that it will be with a solid/maybe epic 2-3 week period and if we’re really lucky we maybe get 2 of those periods. Obviously favoring Jan-Feb for cold and snowy periods. I don't think this will happen...at least not 100%, but if we do get a canonical nino pattern and its simply too warm all the time and we get perfect track rainstorm after rainstorm...then at least we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's pretty useless as a seasonal predictive tool since it includes some of our snowiest and least snowy winters lol You clearly didn't read the blog, so why bother to comment- "Obviously not all of these individual seasons will be great matches, but the general overlay of the extra tropical Pacific represents a prudent starting point, since the vast majority of our weather has its origins there. Stay tuned for additional updates and further elaboration next month and throughout the fall season, as superior discrete analog seasons for winter 2023-2024 are identified"- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You clearly didn't read the blodg so why bother to comment. My comment was on the analog map you posted not the blog. And it wasn't meant as a critique of you, the best SST analogs often are useless in a vacuum since we've had radically different outcomes from some similar enso events. I wasn't saying your forecast is useless...just that list of enso analogs by itself is, in terms of predicting snowfall here which is what 99% reading this care about. ETA: I honestly wasn't even aware there was a blog link attached to that, I saw the map and thought the text above was just the headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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