40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Check out November 1997....max SST anomalies and convective forcing is perfectly aligned just as the most intense storm systems stack and have the H5 capture the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Referring to this event as east-based is akin to calling for snow in DC with an H85 low of Hagerstown just because the surface low is off of the coast. DT would verbally violate you and he should in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why are you pessimistic? This seasons is page out of the Mid Atlantic winter playbook. Because...EJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. Only one left is Topper he will go dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. ABC 7 isn't the A Team of forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. That + sign is doing heavy lifting out in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That + sign is doing heavy lifting out in the mountains. Canaan valley in 30-35” would maybe be their least snowy year on record? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Canaan valley in 30-35” would maybe be their least snowy year on record? Lol Yea the basic lack of climo factored into those maps is comical...but on the science side I am also not sure about the consensus of hedging towards slightly above normal snowfall. When I compiled all the analogs...actually there were some duds, like one season near to slightly above normal depending on location, and the rest were way way way above normal snow years. The analogs suggest the most likely outcome this year is actually a blockbuster 40" type winter or a dud. By dud I don't mean no snow at all like last year but a dud by Nino standards, meaning well below normal snowfall. 1992, 1995, 2007 types. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the basic lack of climo factored into those maps is comical...but on the science side I am also not sure about the consensus of hedging towards slightly above normal snowfall. When I compiled all the analogs...actually there were some duds, like one season near to slightly above normal depending on location, and the rest were way way way above normal snow years. The analogs suggest the most likely outcome this year is actually a blockbuster 40" type winter or a dud. By dud I don't mean no snow at all like last year but a dud by Nino standards, meaning well below normal snowfall. 1992, 1995, 2007 types. I personally toss 91-92 entirely due to Pinatubo. And Pinatubo =\ Hunga Tonga. 57-58 seems to have a lot going for it as an analog. It was a well AN snowfall winter as well. I think even adjusting it for climate warming would suggest optimism for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I personally toss 91-92 entirely due to Pinatubo. And Pinatubo =\ Hunga Tonga. 57-58 seems to have a lot going for it as an analog. It was a well AN snowfall winter as well. I think even adjusting it for climate warming would suggest optimism for snow. If I went back further 1958 and 1966 would be in my analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If I went back further 1958 and 1966 would be in my analogs. 1965 was dry leading in, like this year. Probably most similar in terms of precip of all your analogs preceding the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 I havent seen to many super Nino posts from CWG lately...i was looking at Trop Tidbits and the Nino 1.2 region went from 3.2 to 1.5 since August lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area. This map is not "slightly to well below normal" for the 81-corridor. 22-30 inches can actually be slightly above normal. As far as Canaan, they border on 36" +. which is infinity. I'm like PSU, I can see 10 - 50 inches. Current repetitive Sahara like precip. patterns suggest 10 inches but I have high hopes for a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Great trend in the central Pacific! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Yeah, the El Nino is becoming west-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface. As you know, Eric Webb , snowman 19 begs to differ saying it's going to East based. Eric gave his reasons. Hopefully ur right Chuck. If warming does propagate eastward per Webb's reasoning, I still can't see how you'd get East based. Basin wide, possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now. Yeah, see that. I think basically Eric thinks the Eastern area will warm to that level. Even if it did, it wouldn't still be just " East based" as he says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 No shortage of precipitable water right now in the N. Hemisphere https://ibb.co/L6PLQdc https://ibb.co/WpVDLKn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 classic Feb 2024 pattern@psuhoffman crazy right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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