brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The forcing is weak (not necessarily good since we need something to counter the recent base state), but its in the perfect location. it's of similar strength to years like 2002 and 2009 when looking at Aug-Oct means. what's nice is that even accounting for month-to-month variability, this event just pales in comparison to the past Super Ninos and is much farther west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: CWG forecast is bullish for this winter. Them last year: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's of similar strength to years like 2002 and 2009 when looking at Aug-Oct means. what's nice is that even accounting for month-to-month variability, this event just pales in comparison to the past Super Ninos and is much farther west Let me be clear...its way more good than bad. But if I am digging deep for any signs of possible trouble... the tropical forcing is having less impact to the hemispheric pattern downstream than in those years, as of yet. You can also see that in those charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Them last year: So you’re saying seasonal forecasting is imperfect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 I think maybe too much attention is paid to the SST anomalies in attempting to characterize ENSO events, instead of the actual temperatures. Look at where the highest SSTs are, and that aligns with the location of strongest forcing- albeit relatively weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Them last year: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Them last year: What is their map for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 minute ago, katabatic said: What is their map for this year? The article with numbers is posted in the November LR thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So you’re saying seasonal forecasting is imperfect? Eh, not something to be taken too seriously (IMO). But, now that you bring it up... ...CWG made a reference to the Doug Kammerer 1" outlook last year, and I heard that he is bullish on this year, So, if that verifies, I for one, will be duly impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Nice video winter summary by WBAL chief meteorologist Tom Tasselmeyer. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/winter-snow-forecast-baltimore-2023-2024/45791320 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice video winter summary by WBAL chief meteorologist Tom Tasselmeyer. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/winter-snow-forecast-baltimore-2023-2024/45791320 That background music sounds like something you'd play at a funeral. Interesting to see the tidbit about the average snowfall during an El Nino year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: That background music sounds like something you'd play at a funeral. Interesting to see the tidbit about the average snowfall during an El Nino year though. I've never been to a funeral at which they play MIDI files, but I guess it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Apologies if this is already posted. Might want to nudge that 20-35 a hair more south. Time for new snow boots! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html 9 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/10/2023 at 3:53 PM, Pixee said: Apologies if this is already posted. Might want to nudge that 20-35 a hair more south. Time for new snow boots! Hopefully we can use that for a storm total map come February. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Great job @40/70 Benchmark! I can say confidently that all mid-Atlantic snow weenies are hoping you’re right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sorry about your dad. Mine passed in late September after a long illness. I hope your forecast is right, I'm extremely pessimistic about Mid Atlantic snowfall chances this year, moreso than usual. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm sorry about your dad. Mine passed in late September after a long illness. I hope your forecast is right, I'm extremely pessimistic about Mid Atlantic snowfall chances this year, moreso than usual. Why are you pessimistic? This seasons is page out of the Mid Atlantic winter playbook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why are you pessimistic? This seasons is page out of the Mid Atlantic winter playbook. -Warming climate -Persistent -PNA/+AO -East base El Nino -Persistent neutral to +NAO That plus we're staring down a dry November which historically does not bode well south of 40° North. I hope I'm wrong and I get bump trolled, but I don't see how BWI south get more than 50 to 75 percent of snow climo this year. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 It seems like everytime we are dry since 2002, we get very wet periods soon thereafter. I said back in the Summer I wanted a dry Fall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: -Warming climate -Persistent -PNA/+AO -East base El Nino -Persistent neutral to +NAO That plus we're staring down a dry November which historically does not bode well south of 40° North. I hope I'm wrong and I get bump trolled, but I don't see how BWI south get more than 50 to 75 percent of snow climo this year. Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning The +PNA is not ending up over the NPH (North Pacific High) position at all so far.. that (+NPH) is usually what happens in east-based Nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning Shhh, don't let Webb hear that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 38 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning Let's see how we look in a month. Right now, I'm not so sure. This Nino isn't behaving like others and I'm worried we are going to be forever kicking the can this winter....again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Let's see how we look in a month. Right now, I'm not so sure. This Nino isn't behaving like others and I'm worried we are going to be forever kicking the can this winter....again. Historically, when strong Nino's don't act like Nino's and produce -PNA's we get strong -NAO patterns in the Wintertime, but let's see what happens. Nov correlation to El Nino and N. Pacific pattern is less than 0.1, since 1948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Historically, when strong Nino's don't act like Nino's and produce -PNA's we get strong -NAO patterns, but let's see what happens. Nov correlation to El Nino and N. Pacific pattern in less than 0.1, since 1948 True, but as we've seen time and time again if we get a uncooperative Pacific, a la -PNA and/or -PDO, the NAO means squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: -Warming climate -Persistent -PNA/+AO -East base El Nino -Persistent neutral to +NAO That plus we're staring down a dry November which historically does not bode well south of 40° North. I hope I'm wrong and I get bump trolled, but I don't see how BWI south get more than 50 to 75 percent of snow climo this year. Did you read my work? None of that is true, other than a warming climate, but that doesn't mean its never going to snow again. It also means more moisture unavailable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 @Eskimo JoeHumor me for moment as I offer up a synoptic scale analogy, which is a theme in my Outlook. Say you had a powerful surface low off of the Delmarva, but you had an H85 low and over Hagerstown and and H7 low over West Virginia....what would your forecast be for DC?? Would you expect a huge snowfall....I mean, the surface low is off of the coast, to the east, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Eskimo JoeHumor me for moment as I offer up a synoptic scale analogy, which is a theme in my Outlook. Say you had a powerful surface low off of the Delmarva, but you had an H85 low and over Hagerstown and and H7 low over West Virginia....what would your forecast be for DC?? Would you expect a huge snowfall....I mean, the surface low is off of the coast, to the east, right?? If the 850 low is over Hagerstown, I'd forecast a flip to rain. For DCA and IAD to max snowfall, we need the 850 low to run west to east along I-64. The December 2009 snowstorm is the best example of that: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09-850MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If the 850 low is over Hagerstown, I'd forecast a flip to rain. For DCA and IAD to max snowfall, we need the 850 low to run west to east along I-64. The December 2009 snowstorm is the best example of that: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09-850MillibarMaps.html Precisely. This is because you know to examine cyclones from the surface up through the upper levels of the atmosphere. The question that begs to be asked is why are we ignoring the upper levels of an ENSO event? Just as we appreciate the fact that immature extra tropical cyclones are vertically slanted to the northwest with height and factor that into the forecast, we also need to also do so with ENSO. The forecasters considering this El Niño to be an east based event just because of where the max sea surface temp anomalies are at the surface are ignoring the fact that this is an immature, poorly coupled event. It lacks the West-East Pacific pressure and SST Dipole to reach maturity just as some extra tropical cyclones lack the baroclinicity. You forecast storms differently when the upper levels are not aligned with the surface and you need to do with ENSO. We don't get big wind in pedestrian storms because we lack large gradients/baroclinicity.....well, that is why we lack the frequency and prominence of the WWB needed to fuel this El Niño, thus it remains a slanted, disfunctional and immature warm ENSO paradigm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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