Ji Posted November 1, 2023 Author Share Posted November 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The last 5 moderate-strong ninos trended above average for December and average-below average for Jan-Feb. Something to watch! what if you just do moderate. 1997/2015 were like super ninos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ji said: what if you just do moderate. 1997/2015 were like super ninos Hasn't this year been between moderate and strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 1, 2023 Author Share Posted November 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Hasn't this year been between moderate and strong? i go by moderate(1.0-1.5) Strong 1.5 to 2.0 and Super (2.0-2.5) so to me 82-83, 1997-98, 2015-2016 were super ninos. 2 of those had a blizzard. So i dont think we will have a super Nino so i probably wouldnt use those years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 32 minutes ago, Ji said: what if you just do moderate. 1997/2015 were like super ninos Interestingly, moderate December temps are way below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 Yet, this is Christmas Day those same years. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Yet, this is Christmas Day those same years. lol Lol, we just can't win on xmas eve. Anyway, weeklies are looking good for late nov into early dec. We may follow the pattern of mod-strong ninos with a cold Dec. Let's see what H5 cansips says. What’s funny about xmas is that last year’s was really cold, and we all knew how the rest of the winter turned out. So… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 1, 2023 Author Share Posted November 1, 2023 Lol, we just can't win on xmas eve. Anyway, weeklies are looking good for late nov into early dec. We may follow the pattern of mod-strong ninos with a cold Dec. Let's see what H5 cansips says. What’s funny about xmas is that last year’s was really cold, and we all knew how the rest of the winter turned out. So…Well those warm Christmas are usually a result of the fact that the cold December pattern has to break at some point. Remember when it snowed every December 5th? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Well those warm Christmas are usually a result of the fact that the cold December pattern has to break at some point. Remember when it snowed every December 5th? Sure do! 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Well those warm Christmas are usually a result of the fact that the cold December pattern has to break at some point. Remember when it snowed every December 5th? I would love a big Christmas snowstorm one year but I will happily trade a torch Christmas for an early start to winter and a snow January and February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 1, 2023 Author Share Posted November 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I would love a big Christmas snowstorm one year but I will happily trade a torch Christmas for an early start to winter and a snow January and February. what pisses me off is between Dec 26 and Jan 2nd...when i am not working and have more time for models.....its been a blowtorch the past several years. Its the worst feeling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 50 minutes ago, Ji said: what pisses me off is between Dec 26 and Jan 2nd...when i am not working and have more time for models.....its been a blowtorch the past several years. Its the worst feeling Yup. I don't even want an icebox during that time, just climo with something falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 9 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Sure do! Yeah for about 3 or 4 straight winters it snowed on dec 5th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 JB puts everyone on alert. El nino storms 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: JB puts everyone on alert. El nino storms I somehow think his underwater volcanoes take might make more sense than whatever this is, which is an astonishingly low bar to trip over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Oct QBO came in at -16.98, and still dropping. Having a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO is rare... probably 1/25 year type event, for this type of strength of both. In the next few days, I might do some research and post maps about the unusually high 10mb correlation in the Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oct QBO came in at -16.98, and still dropping. Having a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO is rare... probably 1/25 year type event, for this type of strength of both. In the next few days, I might do some research and post maps about the unusually high 10mb correlation in the Winter. Hopefully this can get some blocking started as we move into mid or late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hopefully this can get some blocking started as we move into mid or late December. The last 4 +QBO/La Nina's have been historically bad so I'm hopeful I think the trend of the last 7 years is still strong though, for example: I don't expect 02-03 where it was snowing every day, the Winters surrounding that were more alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The last 4 +QBO/La Nina's have been historically bad so I'm hopeful I think the trend of the last 7 years is still strong though, for example: I don't expect 02-03 where it was snowing every day, the Winters surrounding that were more alike. Dumb question, why are you quoting La Nina winters if we are in an El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dumb question, why are you quoting La Nina winters if we are in an El Nino? Opposite correlation, in science you get correlations from 0.00 to 1.00, if you use the negative side you get 2x result. Use anomalies, it mostly works, probably greater than 90% correlated (+ and - side). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 WBAL Mets mostly going for median or above snowfall for BWI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 @griteater with a very readable and snow weenie friendly winter outlook 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive. Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on The NPAC gyre and associated currents affect the PDO and the (warm) SSTs near Japan, but understanding all the variables and intricacies is beyond the scope of my interest lol. I have other things to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on Big volcano down there. Edit: I'm still in shock that my Dad sent me a text last year about underwater volcanoes adding all that heat to the oceans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 CWG forecast is bullish for this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CWG forecast is bullish for this winter. Pretty consistent with my outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CWG forecast is bullish for this winter. They do admit it's a low confidence forecast. Hope they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The forcing is weak (not necessarily good since we need something to counter the recent base state), but its in the perfect location. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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