Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Reasonable guess.

Boilerplate, generally a bit below climo across the entire region, although for DC itself that would be a good outcome. Very lazy effort. No attempt to capture subtleties/tendencies in Nino winter patterns.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Boilerplate, generally a bit below climo across the entire region, although for DC itself that would be a good outcome. Very lazy effort. No attempt to capture subtleties/tendencies in Nino winter patterns.

That may be the case. But all the research I've been doing so far is leading me to a similar conclusion, but I'm waiting for the new runs early November and the new MEI value. I have a feeling that there'll be a new fly in the ointment, whether for better or worse.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That may be the case. But all the research I've been doing so far is leading me to a similar conclusion, but I'm waiting for the new runs early November and the new MEI value. I have a feeling that there'll be a new fly in the ointment, whether for better or worse.

One coastal storm with a somewhat offshore track and some cold in place-historically pretty common in a Nino- could dump a foot or more of snow right along the coast. That 0-6" call for that area busts with a single event. Ofc that is a DC focused 'forecast', so no one would really notice or care.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

One coastal storm with a somewhat offshore track and some cold in place-historically pretty common in a Nino- could dump a foot or more of snow right along the coast. That 0-6" call for that area busts with a single event. Ofc that is a DC focused 'forecast', so no one would really notice or care.

Yeah I really don’t agree with zip for the coast. But you know how TV mets are, they don’t really forecast for the fringes of their area.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I really don’t agree with zip for the coast. But you know how TV mets are, they don’t really forecast for the fringes of their area.

Interestingly, that area has done very well in recent Ninas. Jan of 17 and 18( I chased both), and again multiple times in Jan of 22. Two blizzards and 2 other storms of 10" plus. Maybe Ninos generally aren't cold enough anymore for the immediate coast, outside of a +PNA/-EPO pattern with cross polar flow.

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Interestingly, that area has done very well in recent Ninas. Jan of 17 and 18( I chased both), and again multiple times in Jan of 22. Two blizzards and 2 other storms of 10" plus. Maybe Ninos generally aren't cold enough anymore for the immediate coast, outside of a +PNA/-EPO pattern with cross polar flow.

THIS is exactly why I retain some optimism for our area and not as doom-and-gloom as many posters are. 

If coastal areas can still get cold enough and foot+ blizzards, then we almost certainly can and will get these when the conditions are right - and this winter will be the best chance we have since 2016. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

THIS is exactly why I retain some optimism for our area and not as doom-and-gloom as many posters are. 

If coastal areas can still get cold enough and foot+ blizzards, then we almost certainly can and will get these when the conditions are right - and this winter will be the best chance we have since 2016. 

I agree. Been mostly bad luck for places along the fall line and just west lately wrt climo snowfall. The worm shall turn, and mostly likely it occurs in a Nino.

[brooklynwx99]

this is literally the best shot since 2009 for a legit big winter from NYC-PHL-DCA. 2015 was insanely strong (still produced the son of 1996)... 2009 was the last legit mod-strong event we've had in the last 14 years. there is a lot of reason for optimism

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

One coastal storm with a somewhat offshore track and some cold in place-historically pretty common in a Nino- could dump a foot or more of snow right along the coast. That 0-6" call for that area busts with a single event. Ofc that is a DC focused 'forecast', so no one would really notice or care.

Yeah, they do the same thing every year.. TV mets. I've seen those maps year after year. It also seems everyone's forecast looks similar to NOAA's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is literally the best shot since 2009 for a legit big winter from NYC-PHL-DCA. 2015 was insanely strong (still produced the son of 1996)... 2009 was the last legit mod-strong event we've had in the last 14 years. there is a lot of reason for optimism

13-14 and 14-15 are decent analogs, I think (+pna, -epo, +nao). 14-15 was more +pna than 13-14, you can see how the Nino had impact. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I agree. Been mostly bad luck for places along the fall line and just west lately wrt climo snowfall. The worm shall turn, and mostly likely it occurs in a Nino.

We actually saw a drastic shift and difference in the Pacific 500mb from when the El Nino developed this year to before.  +PNA is the signal going forward. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

That may be the case. But all the research I've been doing so far is leading me to a similar conclusion, but I'm waiting for the new runs early November and the new MEI value. I have a feeling that there'll be a new fly in the ointment, whether for better or worse.

The Strong Nino = warm makes no sense. Everyone is stuck on the 8-10 analog composite showing so. Why don't Strong La Nina's produce cold lol

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

One coastal storm with a somewhat offshore track and some cold in place-historically pretty common in a Nino- could dump a foot or more of snow right along the coast. That 0-6" call for that area busts with a single event. Ofc that is a DC focused 'forecast', so no one would really notice or care.

This right here. If you go climo or under you will bust hard with one storm. Makes our area brutal to forecast. Bit also makes it special to live here. One storm changes everything. And when we get that one storm. We get obliterated. Especially out here. I would bet we get at least one bomb this year. I would bet a TON on it.  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. If you go climo or under you will bust hard with one storm. Makes our area brutal to forecast. Bit also makes it special to live here. One storm changes everything. And when we get that one storm. We get obliterated. Especially out here. I would bet we get at least one bomb this year. I would bet a TON on it.  

Mixed signals notwithstanding, I think this is the year to get a KU if we’re going to get one at all. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Reading the main ENSO thread is depressing. Do we actually have a shot at a somewhat normal snowfall winter, or are we going to waste another El Nino?

[brooklynwx99]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Reading the main ENSO thread is depressing. Do we actually have a shot at a somewhat normal snowfall winter, or are we going to waste another El Nino?

how is it depressing? this is the best shot you guys have had since 2015

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Reading the main ENSO thread is depressing. Do we actually have a shot at a somewhat normal snowfall winter, or are we going to waste another El Nino?

Yeah the last few posts were kinda depressing...The part it looking like El niño in th3 southern hemisphere but more niña-like in the northern...and that we made need to throw out the rulebook, per se...that just made me roll my eyes (not at the posters but just the fact that it could be yet another niño that may not act right). This is like fans of a losing team bracing themselves for what new way their team may mess up. Lately we don't do "unusual" well, and I can't remember any of these new "wrinkles" working to our benefit. I just want a regular nino to see what we can get...but instead is it gonna be like..."Oh this niño didn't do what ninos normally do", and hence another unknown about where we are, smh Hope that's not the case!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

how is it depressing? this is the best shot you guys have had since 2015

Because there's a possibility this niño doesn't act like a nino? I mean that's what I got from that post...but maybe I didn't read it right.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Because there's a possibility this niño doesn't act like a nino? I mean that's what I got from that post...but maybe I didn't read it right.

i’ll believe that when i see it

[Chris78]

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’ll believe that when i see it

People fret to much. Best chance in years heading into winter as you said.

Not saying it's a slam dunk but we will have our opportunities 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

People fret to much. Best chance in years heading into winter as you said.

Not saying it's a slam dunk but we will have our opportunities 

I'm not sure we can say with any certainty it's our best shot. Since things don't seem to work the way they used to...I'm reading everything Saud and it seems like a ton if uncertainty to me about if this acts like a nino, fully couples, etc etc...

That being said, I think it's safe to say we'll get more than last year, lol

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm not sure we can say with any certainty it's our best shot. Since things don't seem to work the way they used to...

That being said, I think it's safe to say we'll get more than last year, lol

I'll take my chances with a moderate El nino anytime over this LA Nina crap we've had for 3 years straight.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how is it depressing? this is the best shot you guys have had since 2015

I'm starting to see forecasts calling for a +NAO and largely stable polar vortex this winter. We already have a hard time getting snow in these parts as it is.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

People fret to much. Best chance in years heading into winter as you said.

Not saying it's a slam dunk but we will have our opportunities 

This. 

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

People fret to much. Best chance in years heading into winter as you said.

Not saying it's a slam dunk but we will have our opportunities 

Well said. Honestly, reminds me why I don’t want to post here going forward with how negative it is 

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

Well said. Honestly, reminds me why I don’t want to post here going forward with how negative it is 

Pretty sure I posted more in spring and summer this year than I did in the last few winters. It really does get unbearable at times, and the negativity before anything has even happened is the worst part about it.

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This. 

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

People like to stick with their negative takes be abuse they draw attention and gives the poster the chance to spew “I told you sos” after the fact if things don’t go how many few it will.

[Eskimo Joe]

15 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This. 

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

I genuinely appreciate the insight and perspective from posters like you, @WxUSAF, and @brooklynwx99. When I see you post, I get interested.

[stormy]

During a review of this thread this afternoon I have read much negative anticipation regarding the coming winter for snowfall.

If you live outside of the severe drought zone, smile and be happy.  The immediate D.C. region and east is indicated near normal by the drought monitor.

My research of Enso for the past 43 years reveals the 81 corridor receives above normal snowfall 88% of the time with similar values as CPC predicted for this coming winter.

My main concern is not snowfall, it is moisture. The water table in my region of the Valley is 19 feet below April. The lowest since October of 2002!  Trees are dying, many people's only source of water from a private well is failing in some cases.

We need to average 150% of normal precipitation from November - April to replenish 10 - 15 inch deficits. Though I highly suspect that we won't be that lucky,   El Nino can often provide a wet winter.  2 analog winters, 91-92 and 09-10 gave very wet Decembers.

Will this El Nino winter do the same, or will it fail??  That is my main concern.

[Terpeast]

Just posted this.

This year, we have a -QBO (and falling) plus ascending solar flux. 

When I pair -QBO and ascending solar, I see a better signal for blocking. 

You'll like this. Read: