Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?

Yeah, consecutive Ninas. Last winter was the worst with a nearly stationary pig Aleutian ridge in a terrible location- historically low snowfall for a large area of the MA. The winter before featured a colder period where the EPO was favorable and some of our region got 'normal' snowfall, but it was a progressive flow pattern with lows forming late/offshore so NW/interior areas didn't do as well. A moderate to strong Nino should favor areas inland this winter, with probably only marginal cold available at times.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

 

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?

Because a snarky response to a snarky "just move" post was meant to be a discussion of sample sizes? Just sayin' - the advice "just move north and you will be rewarded" is...flawed.  As for sample sizes, I did say "at least given the last two years" which was clearly an indication I realize the sample size is small. Then again, at almost 53 years old, I may not have 100 years to let the sample size smooth out... 

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, katabatic said:

I hear ya. I moved to f'ing Oakland and best I could do was 3" in a single 'storm' last year. 

Yeah, just brutal bad timing on our parts, I suppose. But...dayum. It has been disappointing given that this is PRECISELY  one of the reasons for the move I made. 

[Eskimo Joe]

From the New England thread.

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook.

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

 

 

 

[katabatic]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

 

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?

Nope. Just sh*tty timing.

[Steve25]

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall. 

[Chris78]

41 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall. 

Ussually Ninos are just cold enough when we do get snowy periods. 

Hopefully that's the case this year. Fingers crossed.

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall. 

Drop the very horrible Dec 2015, and it's not as sensational. (admittedly, still bad.)

 

[RIC_WX]

13 hours ago, katabatic said:

Nope. Just sh*tty timing.

If the storm track is east of the mountains this year (as virtually every model everywhere and climo suggests) Deep Creek will upslope its way to climo an inch at a time even without a big event and with nominal temps.  Even if we have to wait for March, it's difficult to see this pattern not delivering.

[stormy]

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of  at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4..

I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6.

I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year.  91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches!  How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter?  When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter.

November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75".  Normal is 3.54"

December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03".  Normal is 2.59".

Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95".

February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86"

My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO.  What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

 

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of  at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4..

I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6.

I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year.  91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches!  How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter?  When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter.

November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75".  Normal is 3.54"

December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03".  Normal is 2.59".

Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95".

February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86"

My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO.  What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

 

Pinatubo

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Pinatubo

Mostly it's the HL blocking. 2009-10 had an epic sustained -AO/NAO. He kinda seemed to not get that, which is odd for anyone who lives in this region and likes snow. A -AO is the number one index we want- high correlation to above normal snow in the MA, esp in the lowlands.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Mostly it's the HL blocking. 2009-10 had an epic sustained -AO/NAO. He kinda seemed to not get that, which is odd for anyone who lives in this region and likes snow. A -AO is the number one index we want- high correlation to above normal snow in the MA, esp in the lowlands.

For sure, but I think it's pretty well agreed that Pinatubo was the big reason why 91-92 had a very +AO. I think that's key when you compare the Nino values for the two winters he mentioned.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, mattie g said:

For sure, but I think it's pretty well agreed that Pinatubo was the big reason why 91-92 had a very +AO. I think that's key when you compare the Nino values for the two winters he mentioned.

A lot of dots to connect there, but it surely had some impact.

[CAPE]

Stratospheric chemistry is cool, but weather happens in the troposphere. I'll go with anomalously strong/ sustained HL h5 blocking as the biggest difference. And who really knows the complex combo of mechanisms/interactions that came together to produce it.

[CAPE]

^shit that looks like my profile pic

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Stratospheric chemistry is cool, but weather happens in the troposphere. I'll go with anomalously strong/ sustained HL h5 blocking as the biggest difference. And who really knows the complex combo of mechanisms/interactions that came together to produce it.

What an epic look.

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

^shit that looks like my profile pic

Cape, because it is young man lol

[Weather Will]

WB latest EURO weeklies last week of November.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Cape, because it is young man lol

Yes it is. made that composite my profile photo a couple winters ago for good vibes or something. we were desperate up in here.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies last week of November.

I like that look over Alaska.

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, stormy said:

 The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO.  What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

 

In 2009 October was solidly negative, then November went slightly positive before the AO tanked in DEC and remained close to record levels negative through the winter.  1991 the AO was negative in October also before going slightly positive in November...but then continued to become more positive through the winter season.  

Predicting the AO is the million dollar question and if you could figure out a reliable way to do that your services would be in very high demand!  There are some methods out there, like Chucks SST method, that show better than random chance results, but nothing is all that impressive with reliably predicting the high latitudes at any leads beyond day 10 IMO.  

A couple of observations I've made over the years though... a very strong regime either positive or negative tends to have some persistence.  But it can still be difficult to predict exactly when it will break down and often happens with little warning.  But it's a really bad sign if you see a very strong positive AO developing around the holiday time period.  It's especially bad if its supported by a central pacific ridge as that combo is the most persistent and can eat up a whole season.  The writing was on the wall for a dead ratter season by New Years in both 2019 and 2022.  Likewise a strongly negative AO equally supported by pacific forcing tends to persist as well.  

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, mattie g said:

For sure, but I think it's pretty well agreed that Pinatubo was the big reason why 91-92 had a very +AO. I think that's key when you compare the Nino values for the two winters he mentioned.

 

16 hours ago, CAPE said:

A lot of dots to connect there, but it surely had some impact.

There is some overlap here.  There is correlation between the pacific loading pattern we want associated with a Nino and a -AO.  Nothing is iron clad but its a fairly rare case to get a canonical nino pacific and a raging positive AO.  So I think its fair to speculate "what happened there" wrt to 1992.  But that doesn't mean we can conclusively say "Pinatubo" either.  It's easy to do that as its an obvious anomaly that coincided with another anomaly but correlation does not always mean causation.  It's very possible it was just a random fluke caused by a bunch of more discreet factors we can't fully fathom yet.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some methods out there, like Chucks SST method, that show better than random chance results, but nothing is all that impressive with reliably predicting the high latitudes at any leads beyond day 10 IMO. 

My method is predicting a neutral NAO for the Winter. 

https://ibb.co/BsPkpjX

0.54 SD, tested back at 9-8 in the last 17 years gives a 50% probability for a -0.59 to +0.49 Winter NAO, as per this method (DJFM) [CPC]. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

There is some overlap here.  There is correlation between the pacific loading pattern we want associated with a Nino and a -AO.  Nothing is iron clad but its a fairly rare case to get a canonical nino pacific and a raging positive AO.  So I think its fair to speculate "what happened there" wrt to 1992.  But that doesn't mean we can conclusively say "Pinatubo" either.  It's easy to do that as its an obvious anomaly that coincided with another anomaly but correlation does not always mean causation.  It's very possible it was just a random fluke caused by a bunch of more discreet factors we can't fully fathom yet.  

There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699

The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol. 

 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699

The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol. 

Thanks for this!

I'm certainly no expert, but I did do a little researching on the Googles before making that post (and wouldn't have made the post had I not at least read about what I claimed). Yes...I realize that there may have been other factors involved, but everything I saw pointed to Pinatubo having a major effect on increasing the +AO values in 91-92.

[Itryatgolf70]

46 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My method is predicting a neutral NAO for the Winter. 

https://ibb.co/BsPkpjX

0.54 SD, tested back at 9-8 in the last 17 years gives a 50% probability for a -0.59 to +0.49 Winter NAO, as per this method (DJFM) [CPC]. 

Me hoping the nao is more negative than people believe, especially if the pacific is more hostile this winter.

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for this!

I'm certainly no expert, but I did do a little researching on the Googles before making that post (and wouldn't have made the post had I not at least read about what I claimed). Yes...I realize that there may have been other factors involved, but everything I saw pointed to Pinatubo having a major effect on increasing the +AO values in 91-92.

Yes. 91-92 could have been a pretty great winter with a Nino and -QBO! Pinatubo ruined that. 

[Terpeast]

While 09-10 is a good match for this year... 91-92 is also a good match, especially if HTHH's strat vapor effect is to counter the -QBO to produce +AO (which is TBD). 

Two vastly different results with similar ENSO/PDO/QBO setups. 

This winter will be decided by the polar domain, I am certain of it.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

While 09-10 is a good match for this year... 91-92 is also a good match, especially if HTHH's strat vapor effect is to counter the -QBO to produce +AO (which is TBD). 

Two vastly different results with similar ENSO/PDO/QBO setups. 

This winter will be decided by the polar domain, I am certain of it.

Yeah even with lowered expectations and the unknown of what still works, if HTHH ruins an otherwise good look we haven't gotten in years, that's gonna hurt given what we've gone through. C'mon we don't deserve that, lolol That would be Jets fan luck