Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[stormy]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

Yes!,   Snow geese were also jumping off cliffs in my region by 1958 after nearly a decade of snow drought winters.  Little did we know that 12 years of winter joy was beginning in March of 1958.

But, one big difference between 1958 and 2023 is because back then we just thought it was a case of bad luck that would end and it did.  Now, we are almost constantly told by so many so called experts that this is the new normal that will likely only get worse.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, stormy said:

Yes!,   Snow geese were also jumping off cliffs in my region by 1958 after nearly a decade of snow drought winters.  Little did we know that 12 years of winter joy was beginning in March of 1958.

But, one big difference between 1958 and 2023 is because back then we just thought it was a case of bad luck that would end and it did.  Now, we are almost constantly told by so many so called experts that this is the new normal that will likely only get worse.

it's likely a mixture of both this time. the 2000-10s aren't really that far away, and those were prolific

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

 

 

Yeah, I check a couple others, and am getting lower numbers. But say it's the 7 previous years, then 1977 is 12.85. If it's inclusive, then 1977 is 11.44.  Overall, I like the chart though.

Or maybe I'm missing something.

Edit: My calculation about 17-23 was wrong.   But the other items still appear to be erroneous

[Steve25]

24 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Yeah, I check a couple others, and am getting lower numbers. But say it's the 7 previous years, then 1977 is 12.85. If it's inclusive, then 1977 is 11.44.  Overall, I like the chart though.

Or maybe I'm missing something.

Edit: My calculation about 17-23 was wrong.   But the other items still appear to be erroneous

Yeah, there's some odd numbers on that list. All I know for a fact, is that the winters of 2016-17 through 2022-23 is the lowest snowfall period for BWI over a 7 winter stretch in record keeping history. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

 

 

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. 

Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s.

1. 2022-23: 9.14
2. 1976-77: 11.44
3. 1955-56: 12.01
4. 1954-55: 12.13
5. 1994-95: 12.71
6. 1975-76: 12.86
7. 1931-32: 13.79
8. 1974-75: 13.87
9. 1953-54: 14.03
10. 1956-57: 14.11
11. 2021-22: 14.13
12. 1952-53: 14.46
13. 1993-94: 14.46
14. 1977-78: 14.49
15. 1932-33: 14.81
16. 1973-74: 15.47
17. 1991-92: 15.76
18. 1930-31: 15.93
19. 2020-21: 16.17
20. 1951-52: 16.50

[Steve25]

39 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. 

Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s.

1. 2022-23: 9.14
2. 1976-77: 11.44
3. 1955-56: 12.01
4. 1954-55: 12.13
5. 1994-95: 12.71
6. 1975-76: 12.86
7. 1931-32: 13.79
8. 1974-75: 13.87
9. 1953-54: 14.03
10. 1956-57: 14.11
11. 2021-22: 14.13
12. 1952-53: 14.46
13. 1993-94: 14.46
14. 1977-78: 14.49
15. 1932-33: 14.81
16. 1973-74: 15.47
17. 1991-92: 15.76
18. 1930-31: 15.93
19. 2020-21: 16.17
20. 1951-52: 16.50

It definitely is interesting! Taking a quick look, 94-95 was the final year represented on this list before the 2020s. I think the simple reason for that is the massive "outlier" years started skewing the 7 year sample size starting in 95-96. 

95-96, BWI was 62.5 inches

Then, 7 years later in 02-03 they had 58.1. 

Then, 7 years after that in 09-10, 77 inches. 

[stormy]

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

I thought the concern is precip being south and east.

[stormy]

18 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I thought the concern is precip being south and east.

This is a Miller B split. The later systems will likely be STJ vs NS. If no phasing occurs, forget it.

I am just trying to illustrate that a moderate to strong El Nino can lead to disappointment with suppression and no phasing.  

My gut feel is we will be fine with a reversal of last winter.  But, I am concerned.

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, stormy said:

This is a Miller B split. The later systems will likely be STJ vs NS. If no phasing occurs, forget it.

I am just trying to illustrate that a moderate to strong El Nino can lead to disappointment with suppression and no phasing.  

My gut feel is we will be fine with a reversal of last winter.  But, I am concerned.

It’s still too early to worry about winter storm tracks this time of year. The fact that we’re having *any* EC storms now is a good sign, but only that. 

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

The Baltimore area is more due than any of us

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, WVclimo said:

The Baltimore area is more due than any of us

Man, that is so true. No doubt it’s been rough here. Other than 2016, I think my best storm was St. Patrick’s Day 2014.

[stormy]

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It’s still too early to worry about winter storm tracks this time of year. The fact that we’re having *any* EC storms now is a good sign, but only that. 

I agree but sometimes a fall pattern can persist through the winter.   1977 is an example.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

No Atlantic blocking so we get 34 and drizzle. Winter 2023!

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LOTS Atlantic blocking so we get 24 degrees and one hell of a snow TROWAL!. Winter 2023-24 FTW!

FIXED!

I have got The Faith, for the entire subforum.

[Jebman]

10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just my two cents, but I thought 2009 - 10 was almost a slam dunk.  We had so many pro and quality amateur mets in our forum ( @usedtobe, @Ellinwood, @Ender, @Ian, @Deck Pic , etc) and they were all optimistic.  I am not suggesting that we don't have that quality now, but this year doesn't feel like that to me at all.  The vibe that I get for this year from the quality posters (yourself included) is that we should be provided with opportunity, but whether we score or not is just a guess. 

For me personally, after the last several winters, I have my doubts.  It feels like it's been difficult these past few years to get an area-wide warning event, and that leaves me feeling skeptical. Almost like something has been thrown out of whack and it won't ever be the same. So as much as I recognize that this is potentially the best winter pattern we may experience in a long time, until we actually have a region-wide warning event, I have my doubts. 

But I'll probably get a yardstick just in case! 

Tape TWO yardsticks together just in case. This, could be one of THOSE winters!

[nj2va]

6 hours ago, stormy said:

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

Weren’t you worried about precip targeting Raleigh?  Hopefully these posts aren’t a preview of your winter routine…

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's likely a mixture of both this time. the 2000-10s aren't really that far away, and those were prolific

Except the 2000s and 2010s weren’t prolific here. They were only average overall and that’s with epic years like 2003, 2010, and 2014 skewing. Take those years out and it was a below avg period!  A lot of those 40” winters in NYC were single digit awful seasons down here!   Last year I even opined that one of my fears was that was supposed to be the good cycle but we missed out. If you look at the mean h5 pattern from 2000-2015 it should have been epic. But it wasn’t south of 40*. You can decide why that was. But for “some” reason we missed out on the last snowy cycle down here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Except the 2000s and 2010s weren’t prolific here. They were only average overall and that’s with epic years like 2003, 2010, and 2014 skewing. Take those years out and it was a below avg period!  A out of those 40” winters in NYC were single digit awful seasons down here!   Last year I even opined that one of my fears was that was supposed to be the good cycle but we missed out. If you look at the mean h5 pattern from 2000-2015 it should have been epic. But it wasn’t south of 40*. You can decide why that was. But for “some” reason we missed out on the last snowy cycle down here. 

Do we really have to dance around it and/or beat it into ground everyday this winter? It's getting warmer, not snowing as much. Period. Pin it, put it at the top...and let's just enjoy what we do get. For me it's getting less and less "fears" and more...uh yeah, we're already here.

The way I see it, if this is the reality...it's best we take it for what it is and see what we can still get. I'd love for this to be a legit niño (no volcano interference please, lol) so we can get a legit test of what has been our higher percentage enso state...to see what we can still squeeze out of our new climo.

[stormy]

13 hours ago, nj2va said:

Weren’t you worried about precip targeting Raleigh?  Hopefully these posts aren’t a preview of your winter routine…

Well hello there my friend.  Yes, and I have good reason.  I have received .01" since midnight. Raleigh reports 1.26" .   I pray that my winter routine gloats on tons of rain and 25 - 40" of snow(my forecast).

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Except the 2000s and 2010s weren’t prolific here. They were only average overall and that’s with epic years like 2003, 2010, and 2014 skewing. Take those years out and it was a below avg period!  A lot of those 40” winters in NYC were single digit awful seasons down here!   Last year I even opined that one of my fears was that was supposed to be the good cycle but we missed out. If you look at the mean h5 pattern from 2000-2015 it should have been epic. But it wasn’t south of 40*. You can decide why that was. But for “some” reason we missed out on the last snowy cycle down here. 

taking out the most prolific winters in an area that has higher variance doesn’t really work. you’re bound to be below average then

[brooklynwx99]

but i digress. there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this winter

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

taking out the most prolific winters in an area that has higher variance doesn’t really work. you’re bound to be below average then

That wasn’t my point. Even if you subtract those 3 NYC was still way above avg during that period. We were slightly below avg even with those seasons!  About 2 years ago I made a graph showing that the correlation between NYC and our area used to be stronger. A lot of snow in one usually meant a lot of snow at the other. Relatively to avg anyways.  But after 2000 that correlation broke down and from 2000-2015 north of 40 got dumped and we didn’t  even relative to avg at both locations.  I don’t want to get into all the whys or theories.  We’ve done that.  It’s depressing.  Just pointing out we missed out on the last snowy cycle induced by a favorable atl and pac pattern  unlike the 60s and the 20s the last cycle mostly only helped places further north  

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Do we really have to dance around it and/or beat it into ground everyday this winter? It's getting warmer, not snowing as much. Period. Pin it, put it at the top...and let's just enjoy what we do get. For me it's getting less and less "fears" and more...uh yeah, we're already here.

The way I see it, if this is the reality...it's best we take it for what it is and see what we can still get. I'd love for this to be a legit niño (no volcano interference please, lol) so we can get a legit test of what has been our higher percentage enso state...to see what we can still squeeze out of our new climo.

You could easily buy another foot of snow by just moving to Glyndon or Montkon.

[yoda]

FWIW 

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get the individual months from it. But JMA alao gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook.

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV. JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

 

 

 

[mattie g]

^

But aren't you concerned about the lack of blocking we've seen so far this month?!

[North Balti Zen]

16 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You could easily buy another foot of snow by just moving to Glyndon or Montkon.

UM. No? I mean, I tried that. Literally. At least the last two years...NOPE. 

[katabatic]

13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

UM. No? I mean, I tried that. Literally. At least the last two years...NOPE. 

I hear ya. I moved to f'ing Oakland and best I could do was 3" in a single 'storm' last year. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

UM. No? I mean, I tried that. Literally. At least the last two years...NOPE. 

Down years. Trust me. Marginal or book end seasonal event you'll do much better. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

UM. No? I mean, I tried that. Literally. At least the last two years...NOPE. 

 

2 hours ago, katabatic said:

I hear ya. I moved to f'ing Oakland and best I could do was 3" in a single 'storm' last year. 

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?