Weather Will Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 WB Oct. 1 EURO seasonal 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Looks like a good storm track for us. But will it be cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like a good storm track for us. But will it be cold enough. I would say in my casual observation of the weeklies, EURO tends to run too warm in the long range. The fact it is not torching the winter months at this point is a positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Looks like a good storm track for us. But will it be cold enough. Probably a lot of mixed bag events this year. The upside is we won't be dry as a bone in the boreal forests of Canada. Should mitigate the wildfire risk next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Probably a lot of mixed bag events this year. The upside is we won't be dry as a bone in the boreal forests of Canada. Should mitigate the wildfire risk next spring. Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend. i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend. What trend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, it's one run of one model, and the end of winter still looks pretty great with split flow and a general -NAO, so I wouldn't get too worked up Yeah I’m not worried yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on for the next 6 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: What trend? Good discussion in the main El Nino thread under weather and forecasting discussion. Bluewave is dropping value bombs over there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, mattie g said: What trend? We're bleeding in the wrong direction and fast. Classic Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Oct NAO has negative correlation to DJFM. It's the only month of the year/12 where that is the case. PNA has +correlation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB Oct. 1 EURO seasonal Until we have a few dry months then they take all that green precip off.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 5, 2023 Author Share Posted October 5, 2023 for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run Can’t wait for E7 to nail November and December then E20 bring it home for the rest of winter to get us our very realistic total of 90 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Case closed 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 4 hours ago, mattie g said: What trend? We got some over analysis of a super smoothed seasonal tool going on. Doesn't look as 'good' as the last run, so let the hand wringing begin lol. The general idea is still the same- a pretty favorable look for the MA from mid winter on. 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1710048754655473884?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A- more analysis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 You guys will do fine for snow this year. I just don't expect too much cold even in the snowier part of the pattern. I'm expecting some pretty big ice storms across large areas of the US as well. I think you'll have a lot of setups in the wetter systems where it is cold enough for part of the storm, but not the entirety. The good news is I think a few of them will go rain to snow, which at least to me is better than snow to rain. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions. But yet the sensational news outlets are calling for Super Elnio do they even know what that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 We got some over analysis of a super smoothed seasonal tool going on. Doesn't look as 'good' as the last run, so let the hand wringing begin lol. The general idea is still the same- a pretty favorable look for the MA from mid winter on. The euro did show a west migration of the el nino anomalies for jfmSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 19 hours ago, Terpeast said: Could be a classic N&W burbs winter. But I don’t like this trend. Latest Euro monthlies look pretty zonal with a lot of Pacific puke to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. That’s what I’ve been leaning towards. I’ll do a full outlook in November when I get next month’s round of data and tighten up my analog group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think people way over analyze these seasonal charts, but I guess it’s all we got for now. Still think if you blend euro and cansips, it’s a pretty solid look and doesn’t change my prior that this winter probably ends up a bit AN in totality for temps but we get around climo for snowfall. The take-away with the EC/Cansips for DJF is it's the best look for winter we've had in several years. Not excited yet but if the general idea continues into November I'm going to get that "special feeling" about winter 23/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Roundy’s MJO based plots look solid for December and February https://twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1710278381260927120?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest Euro monthlies look pretty zonal with a lot of Pacific puke to be honest. I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 22 hours ago, Ji said: for Leesburg--it was actually 4 inches snowier lol than the Sept run It's too early for these bars man!! Lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK. You have to understand that EJ will always identify even one pixel of perceived negative data and make sweeping statements about the negative results for us. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: You have to understand that EJ will always identify even one pixel of perceived negative data and make sweeping statements about the negative results for us. Well, I probably would too if I lived down there....even up here its getting tougher to remain objective....last good season for me was 2017-2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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