Maestrobjwa Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Reading his post then griteater posting that Roundy thread right after. lol he got caught stealing on that one. No credit given. Thrown out by reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Reading his post then griteater posting that Roundy thread right after. lol he got caught stealing on that one. No credit given. the duality of man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, everyone knows I'm banned from PR. What did you do in Puerto Rico that was so bad? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 17 hours ago, pazzo83 said: lol keep this shit in Augusta County - it isn't needed or wanted here. No need to disparage my county bc of one man. There are plenty of ‘that shit’ in cities, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 7 hours ago, WesternFringe said: No need to disparage my county bc of one man. There are plenty of ‘that shit’ in cities, too. my dude - i spent my teenage years in Staunton (in the city). I know it's not completely universal in Augusta Co, but let's be real here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 23 hours ago, CAPE said: Predicted SST anomalies weaken some in the east/expand westward- takes on a more basin wide look further into winter. Just a couple seasonal models ofc. Need to see what the updated runs look like. PDO is what it is, but there are hints it may be less negative going forward. Basin wide centered west of 120* can be pretty favorable at times...especially if they are moderate to low end strong intensity. On the list of things I am most concerned about ruining our winter the exact composition of the enso is pretty low, its way more good than bad imo. If this winter ends up a dud the top 2 suspects for me would be 1) the overall pacific base state and the warmer waters surrounding the enso region muting the impacts of the nino 2) The impacts of Hunga-Tonga and possible PV implications of increased Strat WV 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 10 hours ago, pazzo83 said: my dude - i spent my teenage years in Staunton (in the city). I know it's not completely universal in Augusta Co, but let's be real here. Real about what?- that many people who live in cities stereotype rural populations as dumb and backwards? I have lived in the valley for nearly 30 years and have met many smart, thoughtful people and seen the arts and music scene thrive. There are doctors, lawyers, professors, engineers, meteorologists, etc that live here just like in urban areas. Sometimes stereotypes are just that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 hours ago, WesternFringe said: Real about what?- that many people who live in cities stereotype rural populations as dumb and backwards? I have lived in the valley for nearly 30 years and have met many smart, thoughtful people and seen the arts and music scene thrive. There are doctors, lawyers, professors, engineers, meteorologists, etc that live here just like in urban areas. Sometimes stereotypes are just that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Basin wide centered west of 120* can be pretty favorable at times...especially if they are moderate to low end strong intensity. On the list of things I am most concerned about ruining our winter the exact composition of the enso is pretty low, its way more good than bad imo. If this winter ends up a dud the top 2 suspects for me would be 1) the overall pacific base state and the warmer waters surrounding the enso region muting the impacts of the nino 2) The impacts of Hunga-Tonga and possible PV implications of increased Strat WV As far as Hunga-Tonga...is there any clear evidence that the water vapor from that is actually having an effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 On 9/26/2023 at 5:11 PM, Ji said: The radical lol Washington post is the biggest culprithttps://x.com/capitalweather/status/1706783085981778187?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA How reputable is the National Center for Atmospheric Research? Are they just weenies like myself? If they ARE reputable and not just crazy El Nino weather weenies like myslef, then we are in serious, serious trouble folks. South Central Texas is in a BAD BAD BAD BAD drought, and people are moving here and sucking up all of the Ogallala waters at a frightening rate. I crave record rains in Buda. I want 900 quintillion year rains. I am so SCARED of running out of the water! I want a Harvey to spin over south central Texas for weeks. We need rain so bad, so damn bad that I want a billion year/magnitude Nino, to last years and years and years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 new cansips looks great 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Feb is total weenie at h5 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Dec looks pretty darn good, but JFM is winter in the MA. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 forcing west/on dateline 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 On 9/29/2023 at 1:47 PM, Maestrobjwa said: As far as Hunga-Tonga...is there any clear evidence that the water vapor from that is actually having an effect? It’s really hard to see what impact it will have on the winter SPV in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s really hard to see what impact it will have on the winter SPV in summer That's not what I meant--I was referring more in general (like any current observations of anything in the atmosphere that would indicate said water vapor being a factor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's not what I meant--I was referring more in general (like any current observations of anything in the atmosphere that would indicate said water vapor being a factor). South polar winter vortex was at or near record strength last year with very high water vapor levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: South polar winter vortex was at or near record strength last year with very high water vapor levels. If the same outcome would happen in the NH looking for the first signs by early December. This is one way to ruin a possible decent setup with a Negative and descending QBO and West based forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: South polar winter vortex was at or near record strength last year with very high water vapor levels. Ah okay...so no here we are a year later...would the effect migrate north after all that time? (I'm curious as to why we didn't see the same effect up here last year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah okay...so no here we are a year later...would the effect migrate north after all that time? (I'm curious as to why we didn't see the same effect up here last year) Somewhat. Takes much longer for the water to reach high northern latitudes, but it has. But there is much less still relative to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: So it's totally okay to be very biased the other way right? Lol He seems to tweet with an "own the snow hounds" tone. I don't quite get it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: South polar winter vortex was at or near record strength last year with very high water vapor levels. Not the best sign, but do we know how much the water vapor contributed to the near-record +aao? Could it still have been solidly positive regardless had tonga not happened? Not sure there’s anyway to find out after the fact, but it may compete with -qbo while determining the average state of the AO this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not the best sign, but do we know how much the water vapor contributed to the near-record +aao? Could it still have been solidly positive regardless had tonga not happened? Not sure there’s anyway to find out after the fact, but it may compete with -qbo while determining the average state of the AO this winter Yeah good question. I think the consensus is pretty strongly on blaming HT-HH. But I haven’t seen literature directly estimating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 There is no cold water in the ENSO subsurface below Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. I've done research that shows the subsurface at -200m correlates to the N. Pacific pattern. Winter's that were Strong El Nino's that had warm patterns, had subsurface cold water in Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. You can do it from another angle, El Nino's that became La Nina's the following year, had worse Winter pattern the year of the El Nino vs El Nino's that did not become La Nina's the following year. Because there is no cold water in the subsurface of the western ENSO regions, we are less likely to have a La Nina next year. This is applicable to the Winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: So it's totally okay to be very biased the other way right? Lol He seems to tweet with an "own the snow hounds" tone. I don't quite get it He’s not the only one who tries to demand that weather discussions be conducted the way he does and/or approves of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 On 9/30/2023 at 4:44 PM, DarkSharkWX said: It does shift the blocking a little west, but that Low by the Aleutians and the PNA look much nicer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 On 9/30/2023 at 8:28 PM, CAPE said: Feb is total weenie at h5 That's a pretty ludicrous look. And January isn't much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 On 10/1/2023 at 11:47 AM, CAPE said: Too bad, Webber. The Jebman will ALWAYS be biased strongly toward frigid cold crippling snow winters in the Mid Atlantic. It does not matter who you listen to or rt or whatever. I, Jeb, say it will be a frigid crippling snow winter in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region. And it will. Because I said so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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